AI 株価予測 20241115の状況
8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast -20241115
MUFGの決算は増益増配自社株買いと3拍子揃った好決算であったが、株価は既に上げていたためか劇的には上昇しなかった。一方、インフレ指標がパウエルの目標に到達する前に下げ止まりを見せる中、利下げを急がないという発言を受けて、米株日本株全体は、トランプトレードの終了を暗示するような下落となった。The earnings report of MUFG was an excellent one, marked by profit growth, increased dividends, and share buybacks. However, the stock price did not rise dramatically, possibly because it had already been on the rise. Meanwhile, with inflation indicators showing signs of bottoming out before reaching Powell's target and his statement that rate cuts would not be rushed, both U.S. and Japanese stocks saw declines, suggesting the end of the "Trump trade."
来週はNVIDIAの好決算があり、株価は一旦復活すると思われるが、年末にかけての上昇が継続するかどうかの正念場となりそうだ。Next week, NVIDIA's strong earnings report is expected, which may lead to a temporary recovery in its stock price. However, it will be a critical test to see if the upward trend can continue through the end of the year.
UST10とUSD/JPYは260日移動平均では反落せず、USD/JPYは一旦割った上昇トレンドに復帰して、なおかつ上昇トレンドが下値抵抗線となったようなチャート。The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (UST10) and USD/JPY did not pull back at the 260-day moving average. The USD/JPY appears to have re-entered its previously breached uptrend, with the uptrend line now acting as a support level, according to the chart.
ADRは若干下げた。
来週は13日水曜日のインフレ率が焦点。
IMMはついに円売りに戻ってしまった。こうなると、為替介入がどこで入るかが注目。The IMM has finally returned to yen selling. With this, attention will be focused on where foreign exchange intervention might come in.
円高による企業収益の予想EPS算定の際の基準為替レートは円高が始まった7月から修正されていないようで、EPSはドル円下落にもかかわらず上昇を続けている。現在ドル円は2024年の年初まで下落している。円高回帰修正された想定為替レートを用い、EPSが修正されると、ドル円と同様、2024年の年初レベルまで日経平均予想が下落してしまう恐れがある。Regarding corporate earnings, the forecast exchange rate used for calculating estimated EPS has not been adjusted since the yen appreciation began in July. As a result, EPS has continued to rise despite the dollar-yen decline. Currently, the dollar-yen rate is dropping toward the beginning of 2024 levels. If EPS is recalculated using an exchange rate adjusted for the yen’s appreciation, there is a risk that, like the dollar-yen rate, the Nikkei forecast could also fall back to early 2024 levels.
先週末の時点で海外勢現物は2000億円近い売りで、買い主体は年金。As of the end of last week, foreign investors had sold nearly 200 billion yen in cash equities, with pension funds being the primary buyers.
トレードTrading:
引き続き様子見でノーポジション。Continue to stay on the sidelines with no positions.
メガバンク各社は各々、再度上昇トレンドに回帰中。Each of the megabanks is once again returning to an upward trend.
新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.
中国株は政府の大規模支援策が発表されたため大幅に反発したものの、根は更に深く、根本的な解決にはまだ時間がかかるとの見方から下落に転じている。
米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.
根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.
米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.
米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.
PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?
長谷工は下落トレンドから復帰。Haseko showed exit from down-trend.
米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10&SPX, NKY
米国株はサームルール発動により景気後退入りが確実となった。
今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.
中国株は反発するも未だ復活していない。不動産不況から始まるバブル崩壊はまだ始まったばかりかもしれない。Chinese stocks have rebounded but have yet to recover. The bursting of the bubble, starting with the real estate recession, might have only just begun.
NY株は景気後退のシグナルが其処ここに出ているのを無視して、パウエルの利下げとM7のみの好況を理由に上昇しているが、これがいつまでも続くわけはない。Despite various signs of an economic downturn, NY stocks are rising, driven by Powell's interest rate cuts and the strong performance of the M7 companies. However, this cannot continue indefinitely.
VIXは上昇。Vix has gone up.
FEAR&GREEDはへ強欲へ FEAR&GREED dived into greed.
中国株は反発するも未だ復活していない。不動産不況から始まるバブル崩壊はまだ始まったばかりかもしれない。Chinese stocks have rebounded but have yet to recover. The bursting of the bubble, starting with the real estate recession, might have only just begun.
NY株は景気後退のシグナルが其処ここに出ているのを無視して、パウエルの利下げとM7のみの好況を理由に上昇しているが、これがいつまでも続くわけはない。Despite various signs of an economic downturn, NY stocks are rising, driven by Powell's interest rate cuts and the strong performance of the M7 companies. However, this cannot continue indefinitely.
VIXは上昇。Vix has gone up.
FEAR&GREEDはへ強欲へ FEAR&GREED dived into greed.
米金利の今後 US FF rate forecast
米インフレの鎮静化は一時停止状態で、失業率は低下し、景気はまだ強く、インフレ圧力の復活の可能性も秘めているように見える。これがパウエルが利下げを早期に行えない原因。The pacification of US inflation remains suspended, and with a decrease in the unemployment rate and continued strong economy, there seems to be a possibility of a resurgence of inflation pressure. This is the reason why Powell cannot cut interest rates early.