AI 株価予測 20250530の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast -20250530
経済指標は未だ景気後退には陥っていないことを示している一方、過去のパターンからしていつ景気後退と株式暴落が起こってもおかしくない状況。その中で、トランプ関税を根幹から揺るがす出来事があった。米国の裁判所がIEEPA論拠の関税を非合法とし、即時停止を命じた。しかしトランプ政権は即時連邦巡回区控訴裁判所に訴え、トランプ政権は差し止め命令に対する上訴のために14日間の猶予を得た。上訴は最終的に最高裁で争われる模様だが、半年はかかりそうなため、トランプ政権は関税の論拠法をIEEPAから２３２や３０１へ変更することで対応する可能性がある。関税のおかげで４月の政府収入は若干強含んだが赤字幅に対しては焼け石に水状態。週末トランプは日本製鉄のUSスチール買収承認と同時に鉄鋼アルミの輸入関税を５０％とし、中国などからの鉄鋼輸入を阻止した。Economic indicators suggest the economy has not yet entered a recession, but historical patterns indicate a recession or stock market crash could occur at any time. Amid this, a significant event has shaken the foundation of Trump’s tariffs. A U.S. court ruled tariffs based on the IEEPA illegal and ordered an immediate halt. However, the Trump administration appealed to the Federal Circuit Court, securing a 14-day stay on the injunction. The case is expected to reach the Supreme Court, likely taking six months. In response, the administration may shift the legal basis for tariffs from the IEEPA to Section 232 or 301. Thanks to tariffs, government revenue in April was slightly stronger, but it’s a drop in the bucket compared to the deficit. Over the weekend, Trump approved Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel while imposing a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, blocking steel imports from China and others.
その中で、先週、米株は関税の無効判決が出たと同時に上昇、差し止め命令が出て下降。今週は鉄鋼・アルミ関税５０％を受けて下落するかがポイント。NVIDIAの決算は想定範囲内でインパクトは少なかった。Last week, U.S. stocks rose when the tariff invalidation ruling was announced but fell after the injunction. This week, the key question is whether the 50% steel and aluminum tariffs will trigger a decline. NVIDIA’s earnings were within expectations, with minimal impact.
トランプの新規政策、戦争など、突発的な暴落に対応するため、今後組み入れても、追加１／３程度で、総組み入れは最大２／３程度。To prepare for sudden market crashes triggered by new Trump policies or potential wars, even if I do resume buying, I plan to limit additional investments to about one-third, with total exposure capped at a maximum of two-thirds.
現状、総投資限度の１／３程度の配当重視（配当３％平均）のポジション。MUFG、SMFG、長谷工、三菱商事、村田製作所、トヨタ、金ＥＴＦ、他。Currently, dividend-focused positions (with an average dividend yield of 3%) account for about one-third of the total investment limit. Holdings include MUFG, SMFG, Haseko, Mitsubishi Corporation, Murata Manufacturing, Toyota, a gold ETF, and others.
経済指標は未だ景気後退には陥っていないことを示している一方、過去のパターンからしていつ景気後退と株式暴落が起こってもおかしくない状況。その中で、トランプ関税を根幹から揺るがす出来事があった。米国の裁判所がIEEPA論拠の関税を非合法とし、即時停止を命じた。しかしトランプ政権は即時連邦巡回区控訴裁判所に訴え、トランプ政権は差し止め命令に対する上訴のために14日間の猶予を得た。上訴は最終的に最高裁で争われる模様だが、半年はかかりそうなため、トランプ政権は関税の論拠法をIEEPAから２３２や３０１へ変更することで対応する可能性がある。関税のおかげで４月の政府収入は若干強含んだが赤字幅に対しては焼け石に水状態。週末トランプは日本製鉄のUSスチール買収承認と同時に鉄鋼アルミの輸入関税を５０％とし、中国などからの鉄鋼輸入を阻止した。Economic indicators suggest the economy has not yet entered a recession, but historical patterns indicate a recession or stock market crash could occur at any time. Amid this, a significant event has shaken the foundation of Trump’s tariffs. A U.S. court ruled tariffs based on the IEEPA illegal and ordered an immediate halt. However, the Trump administration appealed to the Federal Circuit Court, securing a 14-day stay on the injunction. The case is expected to reach the Supreme Court, likely taking six months. In response, the administration may shift the legal basis for tariffs from the IEEPA to Section 232 or 301. Thanks to tariffs, government revenue in April was slightly stronger, but it’s a drop in the bucket compared to the deficit. Over the weekend, Trump approved Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel while imposing a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, blocking steel imports from China and others.
その中で、先週、米株は関税の無効判決が出たと同時に上昇、差し止め命令が出て下降。今週は鉄鋼・アルミ関税５０％を受けて下落するかがポイント。NVIDIAの決算は想定範囲内でインパクトは少なかった。Last week, U.S. stocks rose when the tariff invalidation ruling was announced but fell after the injunction. This week, the key question is whether the 50% steel and aluminum tariffs will trigger a decline. NVIDIA’s earnings were within expectations, with minimal impact.
トランプの新規政策、戦争など、突発的な暴落に対応するため、今後組み入れても、追加１／３程度で、総組み入れは最大２／３程度。To prepare for sudden market crashes triggered by new Trump policies or potential wars, even if I do resume buying, I plan to limit additional investments to about one-third, with total exposure capped at a maximum of two-thirds.
現状、総投資限度の１／３程度の配当重視（配当３％平均）のポジション。MUFG、SMFG、長谷工、三菱商事、村田製作所、トヨタ、金ＥＴＦ、他。Currently, dividend-focused positions (with an average dividend yield of 3%) account for about one-third of the total investment limit. Holdings include MUFG, SMFG, Haseko, Mitsubishi Corporation, Murata Manufacturing, Toyota, a gold ETF, and others.
日銀金利決定会合では利上げなしが大方の予想。
IMMは円買いに転換。IMM switched back to JPY buy.
海外勢は買いに転換。Foreign investors started to buy.
新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.
米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.
根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.
米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.
米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.
PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?
QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.
ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.
長谷工は下落トレンドから復帰。Haseko showed exit from down-trend.
米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY
米国株はサームルール発動により景気後退入りが確実となった。
今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.
中国株は反発するも未だ復活していない。不動産不況から始まるバブル崩壊はまだ始まったばかりかもしれない。Chinese stocks have rebounded but have yet to recover. The bursting of the bubble, starting with the real estate recession, might have only just begun.
NY株は景気後退のシグナルが其処ここに出ているのを無視して、パウエルの利下げとM7のみの好況を理由に上昇しているが、これがいつまでも続くわけはない。Despite various signs of an economic downturn, NY stocks are rising, driven by Powell's interest rate cuts and the strong performance of the M7 companies. However, this cannot continue indefinitely.
VIXは上昇。Vix has gone up.
中国株は反発するも未だ復活していない。不動産不況から始まるバブル崩壊はまだ始まったばかりかもしれない。Chinese stocks have rebounded but have yet to recover. The bursting of the bubble, starting with the real estate recession, might have only just begun.
NY株は景気後退のシグナルが其処ここに出ているのを無視して、パウエルの利下げとM7のみの好況を理由に上昇しているが、これがいつまでも続くわけはない。Despite various signs of an economic downturn, NY stocks are rising, driven by Powell's interest rate cuts and the strong performance of the M7 companies. However, this cannot continue indefinitely.
VIXは上昇。Vix has gone up.
FEAR＆GREEDはへ強欲へ FEAR＆GREED dived into greed.
FEAR＆GREEDはへ強欲へ FEAR＆GREED dived into greed.
米金利の今後 US FF rate forecast
１１月の利下げは０．２５％となりそうだ。
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米インフレの鎮静化は一時停止状態で、失業率は低下し、景気はまだ強く、インフレ圧力の復活の可能性も秘めているように見える。これがパウエルが利下げを早期に行えない原因。The pacification of US inflation remains suspended, and with a decrease in the unemployment rate and continued strong economy, there seems to be a possibility of a resurgence of inflation pressure. This is the reason why Powell cannot cut interest rates early.
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