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2022年3月27日日曜日

AI 株価予測 20220325の状況 8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220325 Status 8306MUFG

AI 株価予測 20220325の状況 8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220325 Status 8306MUFG

AI予測は日足続伸、週足反落シグナル。

トレード詳細はこちら。結果的に週末でトレード枠利用は1/4。長期保有はなし。Trade details is here. As a result, 1/4 limit holding at the point of weekend without long term holding position. 

ロシアのウクライナ侵略は失敗、目標を部分占領に変更した模様。様々な混乱はプーチン退陣まで継続しそう。Russian invasion to Ukraine was found to be unsuccessful, driving Russia to change the war objective from total overwhelming occupation to partial occupation only. Lots of confusion may continue until the time of replacement of Putin.

米銀株は米10年国債金利との相関が弱くなったが、MUFGの米10年国債金利との相関は未だ維持されている。US bank stocks now shows less correlation to US 10yr treasury interest rate however, MUFG's correlation to US 10yr treasury interest rate looks still kept. 

米銀の相関の低下はウクライナ危機の経済制裁の余波を織り込んだ可能性もある。The reason of correlation reduction of us bank stocks to US 10yr treasury interest rate may come from incorporation of possible impact from economic sanctions against Russia on Ukraine crisis. 

週明けMUFGが米金利に追従し続伸するか、既に発生した上昇レンジからの離脱が継続し、反落するかは、現状では明確でない。It is not still really clear if MUFG may follow US interest rate hike or may keep deviating from upward range trend to go down. 

米10年金利とMUFG

米銀株 US Banks

米金利の今後 US FF rate forecast



[今回予測20220318]Forecast at this time 




[前回予測20220318]Previous Forecast 






3LB Month/Week/Day




Midterm Range

2022年3月21日月曜日

AI 株価予測 20220318の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220318 Status 8306MUFG

  AI 株価予測 20220318の状況 8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220318 Status 8306MUFG

AI予測は強い反落シグナル。AI forecast shows strong drop signal.

トレード詳細はこちら。結果的に週末でトレード枠利用は無し。Trade details is here. As a result, no holding at the point of weekend. 

ウクライナは混迷を極めているが、日本株は反発。昨年は丁度明日位をピークに反落したが、今年はどうなるか。金利は上昇、米銀は反発だが、AI予測は強い反落シグナル。Ukraine situation is deepening its level of confusion however, JPN stock bounced back. Last year, sometime around tomorrow was the peak, then dropped but not sure how it goes this year. Interest rate is up and US bank stocks bounced back however, AI forecast is indicating strong sell.

ここは一旦調整を待つ。長期ポジションはホールド継続。At this point, I will wait for short fall of the market to reenter. Will keep long term holding position. 


米銀株と10年金利 US Banks and Interest Rate10Yr


[今回予測20220318]Forecast at this time 





[前回予測20220304]Previous Forecast 





3LB Month/Week/Day




Midterm Range

2022年3月19日土曜日

母 Mother

 母 Mother

母は神のような存在だ。Mother is an existence like GOD.

誰しも母から生まれる。All are born from mother. 

母は、生み、育て、みずからを犠牲にしてまで子を守る。Mother gives birth, brings up and protects her child with no hesitate of sacrificing herself. 

ひたすら子の成長や成功を願い、大人になってもいつも心配してくれる。She purely wishes for the growth and success of her child even after her child becomes already adult.


乳児、幼児、小学校を経て中学、高校になると、だんだん「心を離すな」の時期になってくる。子供は親に反抗し、無茶苦茶な事も言う。でも、親は意に介しない。目的は子供を立派に自立させることだからだ。After going through infant, elementary school, junior then junior high period, child will gradually get into the age when mental contact becomes more important. Child goes defiant against parents and start spitting out swear words however parents will never care. Because the objective is to let their child to go independent. 


自立した子は、時が来れば巣立ち、次のサイクルが始まる。幼稚な私は、親の気持ちを、自分が子供を持って初めて理解した。Once child stands up on its own, time comes to take off the nest, then next cycle starts.  I myself was childish enough to understand parent's though only after I have child myself. 


裕福な家に生まれた母は、数多くのお見合いの中で、ただ一人ピンと来た、父を選んだ。父の会社勤めは大成功だったが、薄給で、家計は母の予想通り苦しかった。My mother came from wealthy family. She went through lots of match making and chose my father, the only man who attracted her. My father got great success in career wise however household budget was very tight as my mother expected due to minimal salary he earned. 


母は地方都市で生まれ、満州、津波、空襲、ギブミーチョコレートを経験。超努力家。当時は珍しい英文科卒。子供の手が少しかからなくなり始めると、ドイツ語も独学、ドイツ本国でのドイツ語教師免許や、英語通訳免許などを取得、教員免許とともに、私たち子供の教育資金を稼いでくれた。鈴鹿サーキットのバイク国際レースでドイツチームの通訳、大使館での日本語教師、夜間高校での英語教師なども。My mother was born in local town and experienced Manchuria, Tsunami, WWII bombing, then 'Give me chocolate' period.  She has been a hard worker. She graduated from a university, majored English language, that was rare in her time. Once kids became less troublesome, she started to learn German by herself and eventually got German language teaching license in Germany. She also got license of interpreter as well as license of English teacher. She then earned a money for our education by serving as interpreter including German interpreter for German team at international motorbike racing in Suzuka circuit. She taught Japanese at German embassy. She also taught English at night school. 


中学生のころ、英語とドイツ語を流暢に話す母を見て、魔法のように感じた。こんなことが出来る頭脳がいずれ失われるのは人類の損失だと心から思った。By seeing my mother speak English and German fluent, I seriously thought it is a magic when I was a junior high school student. I thought it will be a great loss for human being to lose a brain that can do this amazing thing.


母はまた相場観があり、高度成長期前の地方都市に宅地を購入、その宅地はその後数十倍に化けた。My mother has sense of market timing also such as purchase of small piece of land in local city right before the rapid growth period of Japan. Later, the price of that piece of land jumped far more than ten times. 


ドイツ人のグループとアジアの国を旅行をするのも好きだった。地元のオーケストラに第二バイオリンで熱心に参加していた。She also loved to have tour around Asian countries with group of Germans. She has been enthusiastically playing 2nd violin in local orchestra.  

でも、そんな活力に溢れた母も、80歳を過ぎてから気力・体力が急激に衰えて来た。脳神経科の医師は加齢によるアミロイドベータが原因だと憶測、副作用が強い投薬を繰り返す。医師はまた、老人医療は症状治療法が確立せず、勢い加齢によるものと主張し続ける。Although she has been so energetic, after 80 years old, we could see her motivation and energy started to slow down sharp. Neuro surgeon kept prescribing drugs with strong side effects and kept saying that all came from aging that caused amyloid beta without any medical evidence. They only kept saying that it comes from aging but there is no cure. 


今から考えると、長期にわたる脳神経系の複数の薬が心身を弱体化させたと思っている。いつものとおり、医師は単に一人のアドバイザーとして捉えるべきで、妄信することは死と同値だ。When I recall, long time constant multiple dosing of neuro related drugs worked adverse for her body and soul. As an universal rule, doctors should be used as only one adviser. 'Blind dependence on one doctor' is a synonym of death. 


しかし私はそんな母を横目に見ながら、もっぱらみずからの子育てを言い訳に、母の気力、体力の減退の原因追及は高齢の父に任せきりだったのは悔やみきれない。Although seeing such status of my mother once in a while, due to the care of my own kids as an excuse, I have been stupid enough to left the investigation of the cause of my mother's body/mental slowdown in the hands of my father only, who is totally energetic in his age but still already very old in age.


そして母は先週、80代半ばで、亡くなってしまった。小さな時から問題児だった私をひたすら「憎まれっ子世に憚る」、と応援してくれた母を思い出すと涙が止まらない。高度成長期の大気汚染の中での気管支喘息、アレルギー性鼻炎など、医療費が生活費を食いつぶしていったが母は頑張った。亡くなる数か月前までも、「ちゃんと稼いで来い」と叱咤激励された。米国留学出発の見送りで涙しながら手を振ってくれた母の姿が忘れられない。Then sadly, in mid 80, my mother passed away finally. Tears never stop when I recall my mother cheering myself, who was a problem kid, saying that 'problem kids will eventually prevail over the world'. In the middle of Japan's rapid growth, air pollution was at its peak causing asthma everywhere including myself with lots of medical bill piling up to kill household budget however, my mother stood still against such ordeal.   Even until few month ago, she has been scolding and encouraging myself saying 'earn as much as you can'. Her waving with tears when she saw me off for study abroad in US is really unforgettable. 


お骨の量は60代相当ということで、あと20年は生きられたかもしれないと考えると断腸の思いだ。私がもっとよく見ていればよかったと後悔しても始まらない。母の日も、誕生日も、昨年が最後になった。Knowing that the amount of her bone was equivalent to 60yrs old, means she could live 20yrs longer, I am full of regret. It is too late to regret that I should have more look on the transition of health of my mother. Last year's Mother's day and birthday now became the last days I could celebrate. 

2022年3月9日水曜日

福島原発とウクライナ Fukushima Nuke Power Plant and Ukraine

 福島原発とウクライナ Fukushima Nuke Power Plant and Ukraine


福島原発とウクライナは実は密接な関係がある。Fukushima Nuke Power Plant and Ukraine have close relationship. 

福島原発がメルトダウンしなければ、ドイツは原発を廃止せず、化石燃料への依存度を最小限に出来ていた。ロシアからのエネルギー購入に偏ったエネルギー政策で、天然ガス輸入を停止できないでいる。If Fukushima did not melt down, Germany never abolished Nuke Power Plant and could have minimized the dependency on fossil energy. Too much policy dependence on energy from Russia, is now making import ban from Russia very difficult. 


福島原発事故は、技術立国であるはずの日本の恥だった。Fukushima Nuke Power Plant Accident is the shame of Japan that is supposed to be a country with cutting edge technology.


「原子力村」から、小さいころから原子炉は5重の安全に守られているから非常に安全だと聞かされてきた。Since childhood, Japanese are told, by so-called Nuke village (nuclear industry communities and groupies), that Nuke Power Plan is super safe due to 5 layer of protection measures implemented.


立地が地震断層の上にあるのは、日本だから仕方がない。Japan cannot help building plant on top of earthquake fault since such fault is everywhere in Japan. 


しかし、非常時の冷却に必須な非常用電源を海抜ゼロに設置するという考えられない設計には本当にあきれ返る。What really should be blamed is the stupid design to have emergency backup power unit at the sea level. The emergency backup power unit is critically essential to cool down core when all power is shut down. 


5重の安全とは、単に原子炉の周りに皮が5枚あるくらいのものだったようだ。The 5 layer of safety they claim was turned out to be the only 5 thin skins covering the core of the reactor. 


危機シナリオをまじめに考えた様子が全くない。稼働第一優先ですべての危険要素を握りつぶしていったのだろう。There is no trace of consideration and scrutiny of crisis scenario. Probably all risk factors were put under the carpet to have higher priority to the start of operation of power plant. 


そもそも、技術立国の日本が、米国の設計を何十年にも亘りそのまま利用してきたのはありえない。東芝、日立と言えば優秀な技術者の集まりだろう。何で、自分の頭で改良を重ねてこなかったのだろうか?In the 1st place, it is not acceptable for Japan, that is supposed to be the superior country of technology, has been leaving the US technology and design as it is for decades. Toshiba and Hitachi should have been full of superb nuclear experts and engineers. Why they never though of improving things using their own brain?


地球温暖化を防止するという観点からも原子力以外に現状現実的な選択肢はない。There is no other practical choice at this moment but to use nuclear power plant to achieve carbon neutral to avoid global warming. 


原子力発電所は全てをゼロから自前で設計し、本当に自国の技術として運用していこう。Let's design the nuclear power plan from scratch and operate it as real technology of our own. 


一方、核融合の実用化も視野に入ってきた。エネルギーの制約からの解放は人類が次の段階に進むうえで必須だ。Meanwhile fusion reactor is getting close to operation. The departure from energy restriction is essential for human being to jump up to the next stage. 

2022年3月6日日曜日

AI 株価予測 20220304の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220304 Status 8306MUFG

 

 AI 株価予測 20220304の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220304 Status 8306MUFG

AI予測は続落。AI forecast is further drop.

トレード詳細はこちら。結果的に週末でトレード枠利用は無し。Trade details is here. As a result, no holding at the point of weekend. 


ウクライナ情勢はますます酷くなってきている。ロシアの計算通り、世界の国は悲しいかな周りで大変だと言って踊っているだけだ。Ukraine situation is only getting worse. As Russia calculated, all the countries around the world is just sadly jumping around chanting OMG. 

USTがリスク回避資金の逃避先となったためか金利は下落。パウエルの利上げコメントも無視されている。米国銀行株は下値模索を再開した。Interest rate has gone down since UST became safety heaven for capital flight.  Powell's comment for rate hike is useless. US bank stocks started to search for further bottom. 

MUFGも来週は下落レンジに戻ってしまうだろう。MUFG will revert back to the downtrend range next week as well. 

10年金利 Interest Rate10Yr


[今回予測20220304]Forecast at this time 



[前回予測20220225]Previous Forecast 






3LB Month/Week/Day




Midterm Range


2022年3月3日木曜日

核融合発電所、待ったなし Fusion Electric Power Plant, Need to hurry up

 核融合発電所、待ったなし Fusion Electric Power Plant, Need to hurry up


核融合炉が重要性を増している。The importance of fusion energy is now more than ever.

ロシアがウクライナを侵略しているこの局面で特にそれを感じる。現在世界の不穏な情勢はすべて化石燃料資源から来る。現代社会における価値は未だに、天然資源の量、とりわけ化石燃料の埋蔵量により大きく左右される。領土問題の根源は、地下に埋蔵された資源の獲得競争だ。I especially feel it at this immediate phase of Russian invasion of Ukraine. All global unrest stem from fossil energy resources. The value of modern society is still controlled by the amount of natural resources, especially the reserves of fossil energy. The root of territorial problem is the fight over the resource buried underground.

ロシアだって、広大な領土から、化石燃料がいくら産出されても、その価値が無くなれば領土を持っていること自体が負担になるだろう。人間が居住するのに、膨大な土地など初めから必要ないのだ。How big amount of fossil energy production Russia has, even Russia may feel burden just maintaining the huge territory, once the value of the fossil energy become worthless. Human being do not need huge land in the 1st place just to survive.

核融合炉から得られる無尽蔵のエネルギーは化石燃料を不要とする。無尽蔵のエネルギーにより、領土の大きさは意味を失う。無尽蔵のエネルギーがあれば、大深度掘削が可能となり、地下資源も無尽蔵となるからだ。The unlimited energy coming from fusion energy will make fossil energy useless. Unlimited energy makes size of territory meaningless. Unlimited energy makes super deep mining possible, hence natural resource underground will also go unlimited.

核融合はクリーンエネルギー、カーボンニュートラルだけでなく、領土問題を消滅させることで、人類の平和にも寄与する。Fusion energy will contribute to not just clean energy and carbon neutral, but also the peace of the world by eliminating the territorial problem.

異次元への扉 Door to another dimension

 異次元への扉

Door to another dimension



なんの問題も無さそうに見える平和な日々。Totally peaceful daily life.

現実が今すぐ、音を立てて壊れるなんて考えられない。Hard to imagine that such life will collapse immediate. 


でもそれはやってくる。異次元への扉が開く時だ。Howver, it will come for sure. The time when the door to the another dimension opens.


1990年 日本バブル崩壊 Japan bubble burst

2000年 ITバブル崩壊 IT bubble burst

2008年 リーマンショック Lehman shock

2011年 東日本大震災 East Japan earthquake

2020年 コロナ Covid-19

2022年 ウクライナ Ukraine


特に、ウクライナへのロシア侵攻は、時計の針を50年前に戻したよう。Especially the Russian invasion to Ukraine looks as if time has gone backward for 50yrs. 

ネットに毎日流れる、ごく普通のウクライナの日常が、ロシアにより殆ど一方的に破壊され、そしてだれもそれを助けに行かない、見殺し状態。Daily net video showing that normal Ukraine daily life is brutally devastated by Russians but no one dare go there to help them. We are seeing them just killed by Russians. 

ウクライナがソ連分裂・独立の際に、核放棄と引き換えに安全保障を獲得したはずの「ブダペスト覚書」を各国が支援の理由にもしない現状は、「日米安全保障条約」の実効性にも疑念を抱かせる。Budapest memorandum, an international agreement made at the time of Ukraine independence from Soviet Union, to help Ukraine at national emergency instead of giving up nuclear weapons, looks totally ignored here. Japan may need to check the validity of US-Japan security agreement.