2024年5月18日土曜日

汎用人工知能まで、あと少し Few More Steps to AGI(Artificial General Intelligence)

汎用人工知能まで、あと少し

Few More Steps to AGI(Artificial General Intelligence)

AGIとは、汎用人工知能のことで、人間が長らく追い求めてきたものだ。人間と同じことが出来るロボットのようなもの。AGI refers to Artificial General Intelligence, which is something humanity has long pursued. It is like a robot capable of doing everything a human can do.

数年前、形状認識、パターン認識、囲碁、将棋などでニューラルネットによるAIが世界を驚かせた。A few years ago, neural network-based AI surprised the world with its abilities in shape recognition, pattern recognition, and games like Go and Shogi.

しかしながら、人間の知能、という段階になると、遅々として進んでいなかった。知るとは何だろう？知性とは？意識とは？However, when it comes to the stage of human intelligence, progress has been slow. What does it mean to know? What is intelligence? What is consciousness?

論理的に考えようとすると、最初は言語学、最後は哲学の領域。脳のシミュレーターを作らないとダメか、など様々な試みがなされた。しかし、そのような論理的な系統だったやり方は、ことごとく失敗した。When trying to think logically, it starts with linguistics and ends in the realm of philosophy. Various attempts were made, such as creating a brain simulator, but all such systematic logical approaches failed.

そして最後に、言葉の膨大な関係性のみをひたすらニューラルネットで覚えさせたAIが、人間に最も近い応答ができるようになった。会話をする限り、会話の相手がAIであることが分からないレベルまで進化した。これがChat GPTだ。In the end, an AI that was relentlessly trained on the vast relationships of words through a neural network was able to respond in a way closest to humans. It evolved to a level where, in conversation, you couldn’t tell that the conversation partner was an AI. This is ChatGPT.

その仕組みは、ある意味、囲碁で人間を凌駕して世界一となった、GoogleのAlpha-Zeroに似ていた。すなわち、ニューラルネットには膨大な言語を入力したものの、文法など、文法的、論理的な教育は一切行わなかったのだ。In a way, its mechanism is similar to Google’s AlphaZero, which surpassed humans and became the world’s best in Go. Although a vast amount of language was input into the neural network, there was no grammatical or logical instruction at all.

Googleの囲碁AIは当初、定石などを教育したAlpha-GOがあったが、Alpha-Zeroでは、囲碁のルールを教えただけで、定石は一切教えず、その代わり、２台のAlpha-Zeroを３日間何億回も対局させ続けただけなのだそうだ。Google's Go AI initially had AlphaGo, which was educated with standard strategies, but with AlphaZero, it only taught the rules of Go and did not teach any standard strategies. Instead, it let two AlphaZero machines play against each other billions of times over three days.

OpenAIのサムアルトマン自身、この結果に驚き、世界的な発見としてその成果を共有したのは素晴らしい。今では、ChatGPTの成功ロジックは世界に広く共有されることとなった。この成果を見て、背筋が寒くなった人も多い。ChatGPTにあと、視覚、感覚、手足を加えれば、それは「新人類」として成立してしまうレベルにあるからだ。Sam Altman of OpenAI himself was astonished by this result and shared its achievements as a global discovery, which is remarkable. Now, the logic behind ChatGPT's success is widely shared worldwide. Many people felt a chill down their spine seeing these results, as adding vision, senses, and limbs to ChatGPT would establish it as a "new kind of human."

AGIは、すでにあと少しの所にあると言ってよいだろう。It can be said that AGI is already within reach.

AI 株価予測 20240517の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast -20240517

AI 株価予測 20240517の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast -20240517

今週になってMUFGは上昇トレンドをキープ。懸案の1570付近の最多売買価格帯を抜けてきた。執拗に上値を抑えてきた売りがパタッと消滅した。This week, MUFG has managed to maintain its upward trend, breaking through the long-standing concern around the 1570 level of maximum trading price. Sellers who persistently capped the upside have suddenly disappeared.

９日木曜日にリミット１／１０購入。現時点でのプラス点、マイナス点、今後の対応は次の通り。On Thursday, the 9th, purchased MUFG shares at 1/10 of the limit. The current pros, cons, and future actions are as follows:

プラスな点Pros:

大口が上昇ラインをキープしていることがチャートから明確The chart clearly shows that major players are maintaining an upward trend.
来週１５日（水）の決算発表を目指して上昇する可能性が大きい。現在決算発表シーズンであり、各社好決算を発表しているが、殆どの企業が決算発表と同時に株価が３－７％下落している。これはすでに昨年来株価が２倍以上高騰しているから。There's a high possibility of an upward surge aiming for the earnings announcement on Wednesday the 15th. Currently, it's the earnings announcement season, and despite most companies reporting good earnings, their stocks have dropped by 3-7% simultaneously with the announcements, likely due to the stocks having already more than doubled since last year.
円安について、円安で多大な恩恵を被っているはずの輸出企業さえも、１６０円を越える円安について、苦情の大合唱が始まった。Concerning the weakening yen, even export companies, which should benefit greatly from a weaker yen, have started to voice complaints about it exceeding 160 yen.
結果、植田が岸田に呼ばれて、植田は「最近の円安については日銀の政策運営上、十分注視していくことを確認させていただいた」。前回、黒田が岸田に呼ばれてすぐ１０年債金利の高め誘導が発表された。Consequently, Ueda was summoned by Kishida, confirming that they will closely monitor recent yen weakening from the perspective of BOJ's policy operation. Last time, when Kuroda was summoned by Kishida, shortly afterward, there was an announcement to induce an increase in the 10-year bond yields.
数日前まで、価格別取引高で最多売買価格帯である１５７０円付近で大量の売りが出て上昇は跳ね返されてきたが、本日ようやく売りが消滅した様子Until a few days ago, there was a significant amount of selling around the highest trading price range of around 1570 yen, which had been deflecting the upward movement, but today it seems the selling pressure has finally dissipated.
米株が戻り高値を更新する可能性が高いThere's a high likelihood of U.S. stocks revisiting their previous high.
大統領選の年であるため、１１／６の投票日までは株価はキープされる可能性が高いSince it's an election year, there's a high chance that stock prices will be sustained until the voting day on November 6th.

マイナスな点Cons:

米株が戻り高値を更新できない可能性もあり、最悪米株大暴落となる可能性もあるThere's also the possibility that U.S. stocks might not revisit their previous high, and there's a worst-case scenario of a major crash in U.S. stocks
失業率の訂正で４％を越えてくると、サームルールが発動し、景気後退入りする可能性。If the unemployment rate correction exceeds 4%, the SAM rule will be activated, potentially leading to an economic downturn.
米利下げが開始すると、逆イールドが解消し、景気後退する可能性。Once the U.S. rate cut starts, the inverted yield curve could resolve, leading to an economic downturn.

AIバブルはまだ最終消費者までのループが繋がっておらず、インターネットバブルに酷似。インターネットも当初、最終消費者が利便性を享受するところまでループが繋がっていなかったため、期待先行でバブルになった。このため、AIバブルも一旦は破裂すると考えられる。AIを開発発展させているOPEN AIやGoogleの株価がAIで上がるのではなく、ベクター計算加速器の役割を果たすだけのNVIDIAの株価をAIの勝利と市場は認識しているがこれは誤り。ベクター計算加速器はINTELでも、ARMでも誰でも作れる。そもそもGPUを利用していること自体、加速器がAIネイティブでないことを示している。今後、AIネイティブの計算加速チップが各社から雨あられのように発売され計算加速チップはコモディティー化の戦国時代となるだろう。CPUの一部として標準組み込みとなる可能性も高い。The AI bubble still hasn't connected the loop to the final consumers, resembling the dot-com bubble. Initially, even the internet didn't have a loop connected to the final consumers, which led to a bubble driven by expectations. Therefore, it's believed that once the AI bubble bursts, it won't be sustained. The market mistakenly perceives that the stock prices of companies like OPEN AI and Google are rising due to AI when in fact it's the role of vector computation accelerators, which NVIDIA is mainly associated with. However, this is a misconception. Vector computation accelerators can be produced by anyone, including INTEL or ARM. Moreover, the use of GPUs itself indicates that these accelerators are not native to AI. In the future, as AI-native computation acceleration chips flood the market from various companies, there will be a fierce competition leading to commoditization. There's also a high possibility that these chips will become standard components of CPUs.
現在の米株はリーマンショック、コロナショックでの膨大な国債発行とGDPの２５％に及ぶコロナ支援バラマキ政策によって維持されており、QTが進み通貨供給量が縮小していく過程で、すべては逆回転する可能性。Current U.S. stocks are being sustained by massive issuance of government bonds during the Lehman Shock and COVID-19 Shock, amounting to 25% of GDP, as well as lavish stimulus policies. As quantitative tightening progresses and the currency supply shrinks, there's a potential for a complete reversal.
米財政は財政赤字の拡大で限界に達しており、市場から不信任を突きつけられるタイミングを待っている状態。The U.S. fiscal situation has reached its limit with the expansion of fiscal deficits, and it's waiting for a moment of distrust from the market.
リモートワークの進展で都市の存続意義が問い直されており、オフィスビルの不動産価値の低下が止まらない。貸し出している規制の緩い地銀の破綻の連鎖が止まらない。The advancement of remote work is questioning the significance of cities, and the decline in the real estate value of office buildings is unstoppable. The chain of bankruptcies of regional banks with lenient lending regulations continues.
もしトランプが再選された場合、野放図な財政支出は更に拡大する可能性が高く、米国の破滅となる可能性もあるIf Trump is re-elected, there's a high possibility of further expansion in reckless fiscal spending, which could lead to the downfall of the United States.

今後の対応Future Actions:

MUFGについても、基本、決算発表直前に売却するのがベストな戦略であると思われる。Regarding MUFG, it seems the best strategy is to sell just before the earnings announcement.
年初来高値を越えて、急騰開始した場合は、追加購入する。が、その可能性は低いと思われる。If it surpasses its year-to-date high and begins to surge, consider additional purchases. However, this possibility is low.
下落してしまった場合、１４８０、１４８０、１３００、１２００と、リミットの５／１０まで買い下がっていく。If it falls, gradually buy more at 1480, 1480, 1300, and 1200 yen levels, until reaching the 5/10 limit.
日経平均２万円、株価６００円などの大暴落が発生した場合、十分な下落を待って、残りの５／１０を投入する。If a major crash occurs, such as the Nikkei Average dropping to 20,000 yen or stocks falling to 600 yen, wait for a sufficient decline and then invest the remaining 5/10.

果たして、今週も引き続き決算は良かったが、上場来高値を越えていく銘柄は少なく、戻り高値も天井を作りつつある。Indeed, while earnings remained strong this week as well, there were few stocks surpassing their all-time highs since listing, and many are forming ceilings at their rebound peaks.

パウエルの玉虫色のFOMCは雇用統計とミシガン消費者心理により冷や水をかぶせられたが、メガは上昇トレンドを辛うじて保っている。Powell's iridescent FOMC was doused with cold water by employment statistics and Michigan consumer sentiment, yet Mega-Banks are barely maintaining their upward trend.

新値日足は上昇。AI予測は日足、週足、月足とも上昇。The new daily highs are rising. AI predictions indicate an upward trend on daily, weekly, and monthly charts.

中国株は年初から再上昇を始めているが、不動産問題が更に火を噴く可能性が高く、一時的な戻りと考えられる。Chinese stocks have been rebounding since the beginning of the year, but there is a high possibility of further escalation of the real estate issue, suggesting a temporary rebound.

半導体は急落後、自律反発。

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は　１／５。長期枠利用は０／５。Trading details are as follows: 1/5 trading limit utilization for short-term trades and 0/5 for long-term holdings.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

雇用は弱く、パウエルは利上げはあり得ないと発言。米株はじわじわと上げてきているが、ミシガン消費者心理は景気後退を強く匂わせ、米株は高値更新前で停滞。今週はインフレが発表され、結果次第では米株は暴落開始か。

日本も決算発表が順次始まるがピークは５月中旬。EPSが増えるかに注目。In Japan Q4 result announcements are going to start gradually and will peak around mid May. Need to focus on EPS advancement.

US＄は未だ100bpの逆イールド状態。日本円は100bpの順イールド。The US dollar is still in a 100bp reverse yield curve, while the Japanese yen has a 100bp forward yield curve.

米金利は年内利下げ可能性の低下に伴い上昇したが、ハイテクの好調な決算の安心感からか上昇。日本の金利は急激な円安から日銀が利上げするのではとの思惑から上昇したが、結果現状維持だったので、反落した。

外国人投資家の現物買いが１７００億円。個人が２７００億円売り。良い知らせなら良いのだが。Foreign investors made net purchases of ¥170 billion in physical assets, while individuals sold ¥270 billion. It would be good news if it were positive.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

米逆イールドは健在。The US reverse yield curve remains intact.

ドル円は神田財務官により介入が入り急落。原資は１億ドルあるので、160円は防衛可能化もしれない。外貨準備が尽きたところで、金利を上げれば良いわけだ。The USD/JPY experienced a sharp decline due to intervention by Finance Minister Kanda. With reserves of $100 million, it may be possible to defend the 160 yen level. If foreign reserves are depleted, raising interest rates could be an option.

米金利、円金利は上昇。US and Japanese interest rates have risen.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

三菱商事は減益予想で下落。Mitsubishi Corporation is experiencing a decline due to forecasted lower profits.

長谷工は下落トレンドから一時離脱したが、また戻りそうだ。Haseko momentarily departed from its downtrend but seems to be returning.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。

ウクライナ支援の米議会承認はようやく成立した。武器は前線に届きつつあり、劣勢を回復しつつあるようだ。The approval from the US Congress for aid to Ukraine has finally been achieved. Weapons are beginning to reach the front lines, and it seems that the Ukrainian forces are gradually regaining their footing.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

今回の下落がどこまで掘るか。昨年のケースだと、全治３か月。How far this downturn will go remains uncertain. Based on last year's case, the recovery period could be around three months.

３か月でも戻るか、米株の全面崩壊で全治５年になるか。米株がハードランディングする理由はいくつもある。コロナ給付預金の枯渇、失業率の立ち上がり、不動産崩壊開始、地銀連続破綻と政府支援の限界、中国経済破綻で世界GDPの激減、もしトラ不安などなど。なにせ、米国のコロナ支援はGDPの２５％だったことが重要。この異常な刺激策の副作用はリーマンショック後の中銀BS拡大に加えて未知の世界。It could rebound within three months, or if there's a complete collapse of the US stock market, it could take five years for recovery. There are several reasons why the US stock market could experience a hard landing, such as the depletion of coronavirus relief funds, rising unemployment rates, the beginning of a real estate collapse, consecutive failures of regional banks reaching the limits of government support, a sharp decline in global GDP due to the collapse of the Chinese economy, and geopolitical tensions. After all, the fact that US coronavirus relief amounted to 25% of GDP is significant. The side effects of this abnormal stimulus package, added to the expansion of central bank balance sheets after the Lehman shock, lead to an unknown territory.

ハードランディングを防ぐためにパウエルが逆イールド解消まで利下げすると、皮肉にも、ハードランディング開始の狼煙となる。ハードランディングのもう一つのトリガーである失業率が実質上昇傾向にあるが、しかしこのタイミングで利下げすると、インフレを２％以下にできないジレンマ。Ironically, if Powell lowers interest rates until the yield curve inversion is resolved to prevent a hard landing, it may ironically signal the beginning of the hard landing. Another trigger for a hard landing is the upward trend in the unemployment rate, but lowering interest rates at this point creates a dilemma of not being able to keep inflation below 2%.

３月９月は外人売りが出やすいアノマリーも。March and September tend to see anomalies where foreign selling is more likely.

一方、ＡＩハイテクの物語は、未だ、最終消費者までのサイクルが完成しておらず、まだ物語ベースでの買いが続いていた。NVIDIAも、データセンター向けのサイクルだけでは成長に限界があるのを自ら示している。On the other hand, the AI high-tech narrative hasn't fully completed its cycle to reach the end consumer, and buying based on the narrative continues. NVIDIA, for example, has shown that growth is limited solely to the data center cycle.

植田は基本、国民生活より供給者側を支援するアベノミクス側の人。通貨の番人など、とっくに返上している。いくら緩和してもインフレにならなかった日本をインフレにしてくれた円安を、やすやすと手放すことは無いかも。株価の本格崩壊が始まったら、異次元緩和の延長もあるか。もしくは、解除後もカーブ実質介入しまくり等々。Mr. Ueda fundamentally supports the supply side of Abenomics rather than the livelihoods of the citizens. He has long since given up the role of currency guardian, among others. It's possible that he won't easily give up the yen depreciation that brought inflation to Japan, which had failed to materialize no matter how much easing was done. If a full-scale collapse in stock prices begins, there may be an extension of unconventional easing measures. Alternatively, there could be continued substantial intervention in the yield curve even after the tapering.

色々考えると、不確定要素満載で、次のトレンドが現れるまで一旦手じまいという人も多いだろう。With so many uncertainties, many people might choose to sit on the sidelines until the next trend emerges.