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2024年2月18日日曜日

AI 株価予測 20240216の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20240216 8306MUFG

 AI 株価予測 20240216の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20240216 8306MUFG


米株はCPI、小売りなどの発表に振り回されたが、結果下落を埋めて終了。日経平均は続伸。先週も外国人買いが継続していた。US stocks were swayed by announcements such as CPI and retail sales, but managed to recover losses by the end. The Nikkei average continued its upward trend. Foreign buying persisted last week as well.

来週は21日のNVIDIA決算が相場の流れを決める。Next week, NVIDIA's earnings announcement on the 21st will likely dictate market sentiment.

米商業用不動産の下落に伴う地銀破綻の懸念があるが、破綻は地銀に限定される。3月11日にBTFP(Bank Term Funding Program)が終了する。BTFPマネーサプライの減少を20兆円ほど弱めてきたが、延長されない限り、3月11日以降は期待できないためリスクは高まる。Concerns about regional bank failures due to the decline in US commercial real estate persist, although such failures are expected to be confined to regional banks. The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) is set to expire on March 11th. While the reduction in BTFP money supply has weakened by about 20 trillion yen, without an extension, expectations for its impact after March 11th are bleak, thus raising risks.





中国株の下落は一旦落ち着いてきている模様。It appears that the decline in Chinese stocks has temporarily eased.




MUFGについては株式指数につられ下落したが、買い支えが継続し、上昇トレンドを守っている。Regarding MUFG, it initially declined in line with the stock index but has been supported by buying, maintaining an upward trend.

長谷工は下値抵抗線で反発、三菱商事は上昇継続。Haseko rebounded at the lower resistance, while Mitsubishi Trading kept rising. 

半導体ETF、SBGはNY株の下落を受けて乱高下。Semi-Conductor ETF as well as SBG were volatile facing up&down of NY stock.


ARMの下落を受けて、SBGも下落。ARM went down followed by SBG. 


三菱重工は上昇継続。Mitsubishi Heavy Industry kept rising. 


トレード詳細はこちらトレード枠利用は1/3。長期枠利用は4/5。Trade details are here. 1/3 trading limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 4/5.


メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega banks is more characterized by the uplift of value stocks rather than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega banks have uniformly risen, and not just mega banks but also sectors like construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued and overlooked, have experienced significant surges. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, much like what happened with mega banks.


米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The biggest worry of US stock is the crash of US commercial real estate due to remote work, that is not really considered in the market still.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。Underlying impact is coming also from crash of Chinese real estate market. The shrinkage of China money will accelerate the further crash of commercial real estate market globally.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing as COVID relief funds continue to deplete.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The world wide stock market crash stemming from US market crash will happen in few months. 






米逆イールドは健在。US reverse yield curve still presents. 



現物買いは継続4000億円。先物売りは9000億円。Foreign investors continued to buy stock in cash for JPY400bn. Futures were sold for JPY900bn.



PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE is on recovery trend while USDJPY got intervention.



ドル円はドル金利の戻りにより上昇。The USD/JPY went up due to US$ interest rate recovery.






QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT looks in halt while money stock is on down trend. 


ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。Base Money increase is teh result of the unlimited government support against the local banks.




新値は日足・週足・月足とも上昇。AI予測は日足、週足、月足とも上昇。The new 3LB highs are ascending across daily, weekly, and monthly charts. AI predictions indicate an upward trend across the daily, weekly and monthly charts.

三菱商事は年初来高値達成。 MItsubishi achieved all time high.



長谷工のMACDはデッドクロス達成。Haseko achieved dead cross on MACD.





米大統領選で共和党はトランプが出馬する展開となった。ウクライナにとってトランプ政権は死を意味する。トランプが返り咲くと、世界は戦乱の混沌へと向かう可能性が高い。前回の選挙報道を詳細にフォローしてみたが、米国の大統領選は正常に運営されているとは言えない。投票者の管理もまともになされない米国の選挙が世界の運命を決めるのはあまりにも悲しい。どちらが勝つにせよ、選挙の管理は厳正にしてもらいたいものだ。厳正な選挙であれば諦めもつく。In the U.S. presidential election, the Republican Party has unfolded with the development of Trump running. For Ukraine, the Trump administration signifies a dire situation. If Trump makes a comeback, there is a high possibility that the world may head towards chaotic turmoil. Despite closely following the coverage of the previous election, it cannot be said that the U.S. presidential election is being conducted smoothly. It is disheartening that the destiny of the world is determined by the elections in the United States, where voter management is not properly carried out. Regardless of the outcome, it is crucial to have a rigorous administration of the elections. With a fair election, acceptance becomes more attainable.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY  US Banks, UST10&SPX, NKY


NYは窓を開けて急上昇。ただ、今後1年以上も高金利が継続することを忘れ去ったような急激な上げは、早晩反転するだろう。New York saw a rapid surge with windows opened. However, the sudden sharp rise, seemingly forgetting that high interest rates will continue for over a year, will likely reverse sooner or later.

AIの革新はすさまじい。ただ、総人口の消費をシフトさせる経路はまだ不明確だ。既存のハイテク業界に要素技術として取り込まれて、そこから新しいサービスなどの形で大ヒットするのだろうか。The innovation in AI is astounding. However, the path to shift overall consumption patterns in the population remains unclear. It might get incorporated as an elemental technology in existing high-tech industries, leading to the emergence of new hit services or products from there.

現在、SPXの25%がGAFAMにより占められている。マイクロソフトはWindows、オフィスで人類の生産性向上を飛躍的に向上させることで大ヒットした。Googleはインターネット検索エンジンから始まりネットの利便性を飛躍的に向上させることで大ヒットした。劇的な登場を遂げたLLMを誰がどのように大ヒット商品に仕立て上げるかがポイント。Currently, 25% of the SPX is dominated by GAFAM. Microsoft achieved massive success by significantly improving human productivity with Windows and Office. Google soared to success by substantially enhancing internet convenience, starting with its search engine. The key lies in how someone can fashion LLM, which has made a dramatic entrance, into a blockbuster product.

どのような商品であったとしても、人々がそれに喜んでお金を払う、企業が儲かる、新しい価値を創造するものでなければいけない。アルファゼロが人類の囲碁最強者を打ち負かしたのは記憶に新しい。しかし、現時点で、アルファゼロを応用した大ヒットサービスは出てきていない。Regardless of the product, it must be something people are willing to pay for joyfully, something profitable for companies, and something that creates new value. The recent memory of AlphaGo defeating humanity's top Go players is vivid. However, as of now, there hasn't been a hit service leveraging AlphaGo's technology.

現状、LLM大成功-->GPU増産-->NVIDIA大暴騰というシナリオで動いていると思われるが、2000年のドットコムバブルのようにならないとも限らない。Currently, it seems to be moving along the scenario of LLM's massive success leading to increased GPU production and NVIDIA's soaring, but there's no guarantee it won't turn into something akin to the dot-com bubble of 2000.








米金利の今後 US FF rate forecast

FOMCでのパウエルの至極まともな答弁を利下げのサインと市場は曲解し、パーティーを始めた。The markets misinterpreted Powell's very reasonable responses during the FOMC as a signal for interest rate cuts and began celebrating prematurely.





最新Latest



ドル金利は、パウエルの利上げ停止の可能性メッセージを曲解、急激に下落。円金利もつられて低下。The dollar interest rates rapidly declined due to a misinterpretation of Powell's message about halting interest rate hikes, causing a drop. This decline also affected yen interest rates, leading to a decrease.

JGB10Y, UST10Y

米インフレ亢進は止まった模様。一部、景気後退のサインも見えるが、全体として景気は強く、利下げを語れる段階にはないのは明らか。It appears that the rapid rise in U.S. inflation has halted. While some signs of an economic slowdown are visible, overall economic conditions remain robust, and it's evident that we're not at a stage where interest rate cuts are being discussed.

US Core Inflation Rate
US Unemployment Rate


[今回予測20240216]Forecast at this time




[前回予測20240209]Previous Forecast 



Midterm Range

長期的には1年後をめどに暴落開始だが、それまでは上昇を続けるだろう。Long term forecast is negative expecting market crash after 1 year however, market may still going up until then.