AI 株価予測 20260529の状況 8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20260529
先週の上髭を残したSP500の天井サインを物ともせず、株は続伸した。個人収入が停滞する中、価格も弱含むが、これは生産者物価指数が年率換算１７％となったため、時間差で強烈なインフレが来るだろう。Despite the bearish topping signal in the S&P 500, marked by last week's long upper shadow, stocks continued to advance. Personal income growth has stalled and prices have softened, but this may be misleading because the Producer Price Index, annualized, has reached 17%, suggesting that a powerful wave of inflation could arrive with a time lag.
トランプの起こした中東戦争と言えば、１１月中間選挙に向けてインフレを抑え、米兵士の犠牲を抑えたいトランプの足元を見たイランは、核開発、ホルムズ、賠償金などで全く譲歩を示さず交渉は膠着。ホルムズ海峡閉鎖中にもかかわらず原油価格は沈静化している。As for the Middle East conflict triggered by Trump, Iran has recognized Trump's desire to contain inflation and minimize U.S. military casualties ahead of the November midterm elections. As a result, Tehran has shown virtually no willingness to compromise on nuclear development, the Strait of Hormuz, or war reparations, leaving negotiations deadlocked. Despite the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have remained surprisingly subdued.
絶望的な状況、数ある株価天井指標は全て真っ赤に点滅しまくりな状態。それにもかかわらず、半導体株は続伸。これは１７０兆円にも及ぶＭ７のＡＩデータセンター投資が、政府景気刺激対策レベルの規模であることが原因。関連産業、特に半導体は、寡占状態で粗利益率８０％に達する利益をたたき出している。この上ガイダンスも３年先までのバックログにより絶好調。この数字に怪しい秋風が吹いてこない限り現在の株式好調は継続する。The situation appears bleak. Numerous stock market topping indicators are flashing bright red. Yet semiconductor stocks continue to rally. The primary reason is the M7's AI data center investment program, totaling approximately ¥170 trillion, a scale comparable to a government economic stimulus package. Related industries, particularly semiconductors, are generating extraordinary profits under oligopolistic market conditions, with gross margins reaching as high as 80%. To make matters even more bullish, guidance remains exceptionally strong thanks to backlogs extending three years into the future. Unless these numbers begin to show signs of deterioration, the current strength in equities is likely to continue.
リスクとしてあるのは次の３つ。There are three major risks:
１）データセンター電力不足 Data Center Power Shortages
現状、Ｍ７は１７０兆円の投資の内５０兆円しか実行できていない。それは電力が不足しているため発電所の建設が必須だから。建設には２－３年かかる。すると、半導体需要も一旦とん挫する。At present, the M7 companies have only been able to deploy about ¥50 trillion of their planned ¥170 trillion investment. The main constraint is electricity. Massive power generation projects are required before additional data centers can be brought online, and these facilities typically take two to three years to build. If power capacity becomes the bottleneck, semiconductor demand could temporarily stall.
２）ＡＩの性能の限界 The Performance Limits of AI
現状、ＡＩと言われているものは２０２２年１１月発表のＬＬＭの系統。ＬＬＭはアルトマンによる世紀の発見だが、なぜこれまでの性能が出るのかは未解明。その中で、現状いろいろなトライアルが行われ規模の拡大競争となっているが、これがＬＬＭの限界突破となるかは懐疑的。マルチモーダル、ロボット、エージェント、ＡＧＩなど、大きなブレークスルーがまだ必要だが、１－２年では実現できそうもない。ＲＯＩはそれを待ってくれず、ドットコムバブルのように一旦ＡＩバブルは崩壊する。Today's AI boom is fundamentally centered around the Large Language Model (LLM) family introduced in November 2022. LLMs represent a groundbreaking discovery by Altman and his team, yet the reasons behind their remarkable capabilities remain only partially understood. The industry is currently engaged in an intense scaling race, but it remains questionable whether simply increasing scale will be enough to overcome the limitations of LLMs. Major breakthroughs are still needed in areas such as multimodal AI, robotics, autonomous agents, and AGI. However, these advances do not appear likely to arrive within the next one or two years. Unfortunately, ROI calculations will not wait. Much like the dot-com bubble, the AI boom could eventually collapse before those breakthroughs materialize.
３）コモディティー化 Commoditization
DeepSeek、ファーウエイのAIチップなど、強引な規模の拡大路線や先行者利益は時間とともに剥落する。半導体メーカーの粗利益率８割は、本当は同じ値段で５倍のGPUが購入できたことを意味し、ユーザーは自前でのテンソル演算加速チップ開発を爆速で進めている。これにより利益率は減少していく。Developments such as DeepSeek and Huawei's AI chips demonstrate that aggressive scaling strategies and first-mover advantages tend to erode over time. Semiconductor companies currently enjoy gross margins approaching 80%, which effectively means that, under more competitive market conditions, customers could have purchased roughly five times as much GPU computing power for the same amount of money. In response, major users are rapidly accelerating the development of their own tensor-processing and AI acceleration chips. As alternative solutions emerge, industry profit margins are likely to decline.
現状１／２弱の枠利用率で、ポートフォリオ構成は次の通り。At present, less than half of my capital allocation is deployed. The portfolio is currently structured as follows:
暴落開始の合図Signals for the start of a crash
- AI投資のROIが莫大な投資の償却に見合わないことが露呈した場合、AIバブル崩壊の合図となるIf, it becomes exposed that the ROI of AI investment does not match the amortization of the enormous investment, it will be a signal of the collapse of the AI bubble.
- 米CREのLTV不足による満期集中年である今年での地銀の大量破綻A large number of regional bank failures this year, which is a year of concentrated maturities, due to insufficient LTV in US CRE.
- USTの$9tr償還不全による財政危機A fiscal crisis caused by failure to redeem $9 trillion in UST.
- AI投資のROIが莫大な投資の償却に見合わないことが露呈した場合、AIバブル崩壊の合図となるIf, it becomes exposed that the ROI of AI investment does not match the amortization of the enormous investment, it will be a signal of the collapse of the AI bubble.
- 米CREのLTV不足による満期集中年である今年での地銀の大量破綻A large number of regional bank failures this year, which is a year of concentrated maturities, due to insufficient LTV in US CRE.
- USTの$9tr償還不全による財政危機A fiscal crisis caused by failure to redeem $9 trillion in UST.
プラス面Positive factors- GDPNowが５．３％を示し、AI投資による景気押し上げ効果が出ている。Q2までは巨額のAI投資でインフラ構築業種の収益が高まる。GDPNow is showing 5.3%, indicating that AI investment is having a stimulative effect on the economy. Through Q2, massive AI-related investment is expected to boost earnings in infrastructure-building industries.
- AIを含め、米株収益はまだ落ち込んできてはいない。Despite concerns, U.S. corporate earnings—including AI-related sectors—have not yet deteriorated.
- UniTreeなど中国ロボットはBostonDynamicsを越えて成長しつつあり、AI、ロボットの爆発的な発展を予想させる。Chinese robotics companies such as Unitree are rapidly advancing and beginning to surpass Boston Dynamics, pointing to an explosive phase of growth in AI and robotics.
- トランプの対中国１００％関税は４月と同様TACOである。Trump’s proposed 100% tariff on China appears to be another TACO, as in April.
- パウエルは基本利下げ基調。Powell maintains a general easing bias.
- 過去の短期トレンドからは、まだもうひと上昇ある可能性。Based on past short term trends, another leg up in the market is still possible.
マイナス面Negative factors- Q2以降は最終消費者の不在が投資主体の損益に反映され始める。LLMによるAIバブルは2000年ITバブルの様に今だ投資ー収益がクローズしていない。データセンターを構築したものの、それに見合った収入がないということが明らかになる。AI 投資は循環取引を除く実質のROIが７％程度で、莫大な投資に見合った収益を上げることができないため、レバレッジの高いオラクルなどを筆頭に早晩行き詰る予想。From Q2 onward, the absence of end consumers will begin to be reflected in the profits and losses of investment-led players. The current AI boom driven by LLMs mirrors the 2000 IT bubble, with investments yet to translate into profits. It will become clear that data centers have been built without generating commensurate revenue. AI investment delivers a real ROI of around 7%, excluding circular transactions, which is insufficient to justify the enormous scale of capital投入. As a result, highly leveraged companies—led by Oracle—are expected to run into difficulties sooner rather than later.
- 著名アナリストの殆どが２０２６年の株高を予測しているため、下落が予想される。Because most prominent analysts are forecasting a stock market rally in 2026, a decline is expected.
- ２０２６年は２０２５年に引き続き９兆ドルの米国債満期（内４兆ドルは前年度からの短期のロール）となっており、新発債発行による金利上昇が懸念される。2026, following on from 2025, will see approximately $9 trillion in U.S. Treasury maturities, of which $4 trillion are short-term rollovers from the previous year, raising concerns that new debt issuance will push interest rates higher.
- CRE崩壊は米政権業界一体の隠ぺいによって金融不安の発生を防いでおり、内包された問題は全く解決されていない。特に２０２６年はCRE借換満期が集中しており、LTVの悪化による破綻が隠しきれずに顕在化する可能性が大きい。The collapse of the commercial real estate (CRE) sector has so far been concealed through coordinated efforts between the U.S. administration and the industry, preventing the emergence of broader financial instability. However, the underlying problems remain entirely unresolved. In particular, 2026 will see a concentration of CRE refinancing maturities, and as loan-to-value ratios deteriorate, the resulting failures are increasingly likely to surface and become impossible to conceal.
- 景気先行指標である黒人失業率が急上昇中である。The Black unemployment rate, a leading indicator of economic conditions, is rising sharply.
- 米株のバリュエーションは歴史的高水準にあるU.S. stock valuations remain at historically elevated levels.
- １９３０大恐慌からの対数トレンド上値抵抗線にタッチしているThe market is touching the upper resistance line of the logarithmic trend dating back to the Great Depression of the 1930s.
- 米株信用買い残は１兆ドルを超えてきている。逆回転が始まると止まらない。U.S. margin debt now exceeds $1 trillion; once the reversal begins, it may be unstoppable.
- バリュエーション、テクニカルの両面からいつ大暴落となっても不思議はないBoth valuation and technical indicators suggest that a major crash could occur at any time.
- 長短金利差はサームルールに抵触The yield curve inversion violates the Sahm Rule.
- インフレは目標２％より高く、GDPの強さも相まってパウエルは再度利上げするか、利下げを停止するかも。Inflation remains above the 2% target, and with GDP still strong, Powell may either halt rate cuts or even raise rates again.
- 2000年からの上昇は米債務の拡大に支えられており、持続不能なレベルになっているThe post-2000 market rise has been supported by an unsustainable expansion of U.S. debt.
これからはどこかで梯子を外されることを前提としたチキンレースに突入する。トレンド変換の時には素早くポジションを解消する。ただ、寄り付きで４０％下落のように、逃げ切れないほど早く下落した場合は、逆にポジションを１／３追加していきたい。From here, the market enters a game of chicken, assuming that the ladder will be pulled away at some point. Positions must be exited quickly when the trend reverses. However, if a sudden plunge occurs—such as a 40% drop right at the open, leaving no time to escape—I would rather add one-third more to my position.
テクニカル的には1930年からのトレンド上限に達し、また、バフェット指数その他のマクロ指数がバブルであることを示している。トランプの放任財政拡大により風船がさらに膨らむ状態で、なにかを切っ掛けに破裂を待っているのは明らか。On the technical side, the market has reached the upper limit of the trend line dating back to 1930, and macro indicators such as the Buffett Indicator are signaling a bubble. With Trump’s laissez-faire fiscal expansion further inflating the balloon, it is clear that the market is just waiting for some trigger to burst.
ただ、悪いシナリオとして、トランプのFRBへの利下げ要求、放漫財政が、さらなるバブルを引き起こす可能性も否定できない。そうなると、米国の金融風船は更に壊滅的な破裂まで突っ走ることになる。当面は１／３程度のリスクポジションを維持することで、万が一の上昇継続の場合にも対応できる。That said, a worse-case scenario cannot be ruled out: Trump’s pressure on the Fed for rate cuts and his reckless fiscal policies could trigger an even larger bubble. If that happens, the U.S. financial bubble could be headed for an even more devastating collapse. For the time being, maintaining a risk position of around one-third allows for flexibility in the event the market continues to rise unexpectedly.
プラス面Positive factors
- GDPNowが５．３％を示し、AI投資による景気押し上げ効果が出ている。Q2までは巨額のAI投資でインフラ構築業種の収益が高まる。GDPNow is showing 5.3%, indicating that AI investment is having a stimulative effect on the economy. Through Q2, massive AI-related investment is expected to boost earnings in infrastructure-building industries.
- AIを含め、米株収益はまだ落ち込んできてはいない。Despite concerns, U.S. corporate earnings—including AI-related sectors—have not yet deteriorated.
- UniTreeなど中国ロボットはBostonDynamicsを越えて成長しつつあり、AI、ロボットの爆発的な発展を予想させる。Chinese robotics companies such as Unitree are rapidly advancing and beginning to surpass Boston Dynamics, pointing to an explosive phase of growth in AI and robotics.
- トランプの対中国１００％関税は４月と同様TACOである。Trump’s proposed 100% tariff on China appears to be another TACO, as in April.
- パウエルは基本利下げ基調。Powell maintains a general easing bias.
- 過去の短期トレンドからは、まだもうひと上昇ある可能性。Based on past short term trends, another leg up in the market is still possible.
マイナス面Negative factors
- Q2以降は最終消費者の不在が投資主体の損益に反映され始める。LLMによるAIバブルは2000年ITバブルの様に今だ投資ー収益がクローズしていない。データセンターを構築したものの、それに見合った収入がないということが明らかになる。AI 投資は循環取引を除く実質のROIが７％程度で、莫大な投資に見合った収益を上げることができないため、レバレッジの高いオラクルなどを筆頭に早晩行き詰る予想。From Q2 onward, the absence of end consumers will begin to be reflected in the profits and losses of investment-led players. The current AI boom driven by LLMs mirrors the 2000 IT bubble, with investments yet to translate into profits. It will become clear that data centers have been built without generating commensurate revenue. AI investment delivers a real ROI of around 7%, excluding circular transactions, which is insufficient to justify the enormous scale of capital投入. As a result, highly leveraged companies—led by Oracle—are expected to run into difficulties sooner rather than later.
- 著名アナリストの殆どが２０２６年の株高を予測しているため、下落が予想される。Because most prominent analysts are forecasting a stock market rally in 2026, a decline is expected.
- ２０２６年は２０２５年に引き続き９兆ドルの米国債満期（内４兆ドルは前年度からの短期のロール）となっており、新発債発行による金利上昇が懸念される。2026, following on from 2025, will see approximately $9 trillion in U.S. Treasury maturities, of which $4 trillion are short-term rollovers from the previous year, raising concerns that new debt issuance will push interest rates higher.
- CRE崩壊は米政権業界一体の隠ぺいによって金融不安の発生を防いでおり、内包された問題は全く解決されていない。特に２０２６年はCRE借換満期が集中しており、LTVの悪化による破綻が隠しきれずに顕在化する可能性が大きい。The collapse of the commercial real estate (CRE) sector has so far been concealed through coordinated efforts between the U.S. administration and the industry, preventing the emergence of broader financial instability. However, the underlying problems remain entirely unresolved. In particular, 2026 will see a concentration of CRE refinancing maturities, and as loan-to-value ratios deteriorate, the resulting failures are increasingly likely to surface and become impossible to conceal.
- 景気先行指標である黒人失業率が急上昇中である。The Black unemployment rate, a leading indicator of economic conditions, is rising sharply.
- 米株のバリュエーションは歴史的高水準にあるU.S. stock valuations remain at historically elevated levels.
- １９３０大恐慌からの対数トレンド上値抵抗線にタッチしているThe market is touching the upper resistance line of the logarithmic trend dating back to the Great Depression of the 1930s.
- 米株信用買い残は１兆ドルを超えてきている。逆回転が始まると止まらない。U.S. margin debt now exceeds $1 trillion; once the reversal begins, it may be unstoppable.
- バリュエーション、テクニカルの両面からいつ大暴落となっても不思議はないBoth valuation and technical indicators suggest that a major crash could occur at any time.
- 長短金利差はサームルールに抵触The yield curve inversion violates the Sahm Rule.
- インフレは目標２％より高く、GDPの強さも相まってパウエルは再度利上げするか、利下げを停止するかも。Inflation remains above the 2% target, and with GDP still strong, Powell may either halt rate cuts or even raise rates again.
- 2000年からの上昇は米債務の拡大に支えられており、持続不能なレベルになっているThe post-2000 market rise has been supported by an unsustainable expansion of U.S. debt.
これからはどこかで梯子を外されることを前提としたチキンレースに突入する。トレンド変換の時には素早くポジションを解消する。ただ、寄り付きで４０％下落のように、逃げ切れないほど早く下落した場合は、逆にポジションを１／３追加していきたい。From here, the market enters a game of chicken, assuming that the ladder will be pulled away at some point. Positions must be exited quickly when the trend reverses. However, if a sudden plunge occurs—such as a 40% drop right at the open, leaving no time to escape—I would rather add one-third more to my position.
テクニカル的には1930年からのトレンド上限に達し、また、バフェット指数その他のマクロ指数がバブルであることを示している。トランプの放任財政拡大により風船がさらに膨らむ状態で、なにかを切っ掛けに破裂を待っているのは明らか。On the technical side, the market has reached the upper limit of the trend line dating back to 1930, and macro indicators such as the Buffett Indicator are signaling a bubble. With Trump’s laissez-faire fiscal expansion further inflating the balloon, it is clear that the market is just waiting for some trigger to burst.
ただ、悪いシナリオとして、トランプのFRBへの利下げ要求、放漫財政が、さらなるバブルを引き起こす可能性も否定できない。そうなると、米国の金融風船は更に壊滅的な破裂まで突っ走ることになる。当面は１／３程度のリスクポジションを維持することで、万が一の上昇継続の場合にも対応できる。That said, a worse-case scenario cannot be ruled out: Trump’s pressure on the Fed for rate cuts and his reckless fiscal policies could trigger an even larger bubble. If that happens, the U.S. financial bubble could be headed for an even more devastating collapse. For the time being, maintaining a risk position of around one-third allows for flexibility in the event the market continues to rise unexpectedly.
トランプの新規政策、戦争など、突発的な暴落に対応するため、今後組み入れても、追加１／３程度で、総組み入れは最大２／３程度。To prepare for sudden market crashes triggered by new Trump policies or potential wars, even if I do resume buying, I plan to limit additional investments to about one-third, with total exposure capped at a maximum of two-thirds.
トランプの新規政策、戦争など、突発的な暴落に対応するため、今後組み入れても、追加１／３程度で、総組み入れは最大２／３程度。To prepare for sudden market crashes triggered by new Trump policies or potential wars, even if I do resume buying, I plan to limit additional investments to about one-third, with total exposure capped at a maximum of two-thirds.
日銀金利決定会合では利上げありが大方の予想。BOJ made a leak of rate hike at coming interest decision meeting.
IMMは円買いに転換。IMM switched back to JPY buy.
新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.
米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.
根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.
米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.
米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.
PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?
QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.
ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.
長谷工は下落トレンドから復帰。Haseko showed exit from down-trend.
米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY
米国株はサームルール発動により景気後退入りが確実となった。
今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.
中国株は反発するも未だ復活していない。不動産不況から始まるバブル崩壊はまだ始まったばかりかもしれない。Chinese stocks have rebounded but have yet to recover. The bursting of the bubble, starting with the real estate recession, might have only just begun.
NY株は景気後退のシグナルが其処ここに出ているのを無視して、パウエルの利下げとM7のみの好況を理由に上昇しているが、これがいつまでも続くわけはない。Despite various signs of an economic downturn, NY stocks are rising, driven by Powell's interest rate cuts and the strong performance of the M7 companies. However, this cannot continue indefinitely.
VIXは上昇。Vix has gone up.
中国株は反発するも未だ復活していない。不動産不況から始まるバブル崩壊はまだ始まったばかりかもしれない。Chinese stocks have rebounded but have yet to recover. The bursting of the bubble, starting with the real estate recession, might have only just begun.
NY株は景気後退のシグナルが其処ここに出ているのを無視して、パウエルの利下げとM7のみの好況を理由に上昇しているが、これがいつまでも続くわけはない。Despite various signs of an economic downturn, NY stocks are rising, driven by Powell's interest rate cuts and the strong performance of the M7 companies. However, this cannot continue indefinitely.
VIXは上昇。Vix has gone up.
FEAR＆GREEDは最高の恐怖から復帰 FEAR＆GREED came back from extreme fear.
FEAR＆GREEDは最高の恐怖から復帰 FEAR＆GREED came back from extreme fear.
米金利の今後 US FF rate forecast
米インフレの鎮静化は一時停止状態で、失業率は低下し、景気はまだ強く、インフレ圧力の復活の可能性も秘めているように見える。これがパウエルが利下げを早期に行えない原因。The pacification of US inflation remains suspended, and with a decrease in the unemployment rate and continued strong economy, there seems to be a possibility of a resurgence of inflation pressure. This is the reason why Powell cannot cut interest rates early.
[今回予測20260529］Forecast at this time
[今回予測20260529］Forecast at this time
[前回予測20260522］Previous Forecast
[前回予測20260522］Previous Forecast
