AI 株価予測 20250509の状況
8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast -20250509

前週の強い雇用、ISMPMI、米金利据置を受け、米株は４／２のトランプの言うところの”米国開放日”のレベルを維持。ただ、トランプ関税の破壊的な影響を予見してそれ以上の高値更新は止まった。日本株は４連休の後、４／２を超えて上昇した。銀行株は前週の下げを戻した。Following strong employment data from the previous week, solid ISM PMI figures, and the Fed's decision to hold interest rates steady, U.S. stocks maintained levels seen on April 2—dubbed "U.S. Liberation Day" by Trump. However, anticipating the destructive impact of Trump's tariffs, the market stalled short of setting new highs. In contrast, after a four-day holiday, Japanese stocks rose beyond their April 2 levels. Bank stocks rebounded from losses in the prior week.

トランプは週末の中国との交渉が非常にうまくいっており、関税率も１４５％から８０％、そして、リセットするなどと言い出している。もし、中国の言うように完全撤廃などとなれば株価は一旦跳ね上がるだろう。Trump claimed over the weekend that negotiations with China were going extremely well, and floated ideas such as lowering tariffs from 145% to 80%, or even "resetting" them altogether. Should China’s demand for a complete tariff removal be met, stock prices would likely see a sharp temporary surge.

トランプは$2.5mn以上の年収の税率を39%とする増税も言い出しており、関税が当初の数字より減額になった分も補える手はずを整えつつあるようだ。Trump has also proposed a tax increase, setting the rate at 39% for annual incomes exceeding $2.5 million—appearing to prepare measures to offset the revenue loss from tariff reductions.

対中国の145%レベルの関税合戦は対中貿易の事実上の停止をもたらしており、持続不可能なことは中国も認識している。一方、些少の関税に留まれば、そもそもトランプが騒動を起こした目的は未達で終わる。週明けの決着が見もの。The 145% tariff battle with China has effectively halted bilateral trade, and even China recognizes this is unsustainable. On the other hand, if tariffs are only marginal, Trump’s original goal in starting the dispute would remain unfulfilled. The resolution expected early in the week will be worth watching closely.

トランプの「当初気が狂ったような事をやり、相手を困惑させ、徐々に手を緩めて決着にもっていく」というケンカ交渉術は2017年-2020年の第一期トランプ政権でもあった。今回も同様のスタイルだが、「トランプが狂って株が急落した場合は買い、戻ったら売り」戦略が成立しそうだ。現状、トランプの発狂時点まで株は戻っているので、ここからは新しい相場と考えるべきだろう。Trump's "start with seemingly insane actions to throw the opponent off, then gradually ease and settle" negotiation tactic was also seen during his first term from 2017 to 2020. He’s following a similar strategy this time. Thus, a “buy when Trump appears to go crazy and stocks plunge, sell when they recover” approach may be viable. Currently, stocks have recovered to the level where Trump first went “off the rails,” suggesting we are entering a new market phase.

経済指標は基本強いものの、あちこちでほころびが見え隠れし、関税の影響も２カ月後から顕著になってくる。While the economic indicators remain fundamentally strong, signs of strain are emerging in various areas, and the effects of the tariffs are expected to become more apparent in about two months.

現状、総投資限度の１／３程度の配当重視（配当３％平均）のポジション。MUFG、長谷工、三菱商事、村田製作所、トヨタ、金ＥＴＦ、他。Currently, dividend-focused positions (with an average dividend yield of 3%) account for about one-third of the total investment limit. Holdings include MUFG, Haseko, Mitsubishi Corporation, Murata Manufacturing, Toyota, a gold ETF, and others.

日銀金利決定会合では利上げなしが大方の予想。

IMMは円買いに転換。IMM switched back to JPY buy.

海外勢は買いに転換。Foreign investors started to buy.

新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

現状日銀は７００兆円近くの国債を買い入れており、これは国債発行残高の６割近く。このうち６兆円が毎月満期になるため、月額６兆円を買い入れている。このため、月額買入を３兆円に減額すると１年間に３６兆円のQTとなる。全保有額を放出するには２０年近くかかるため、それまでは廃止したと言いながら継続しているYCCが続くことになる。これが国債が売られた背景。 Currently, the Bank of Japan holds nearly 700 trillion yen in government bonds, which is close to 60% of the total government bond issuance. Of this amount, 6 trillion yen matures every month, leading the BOJ to purchase 6 trillion yen monthly. Therefore, reducing the monthly purchases to 3 trillion yen results in a QT of 36 trillion yen annually. It would take nearly 20 years to completely unwind their holdings, so despite announcing the end of yield curve control (YCC), it effectively continues. This is why government bonds are being sold off.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

長谷工は下落トレンドから復帰。Haseko showed exit from down-trend.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

トランプはウクライナ問題の早期解決をプーチンと話し合う予定。ヨーロッパとウクライナは蚊帳の外。最悪の展開が待っている模様。Trump is going to talk Putin on the early resolution of Ukraine problem. Neither Europe nor Ukraine were invited. Worst case scenario is now expected.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

米国株はサームルール発動により景気後退入りが確実となった。

今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.