宇宙の果て　The edge of the space

ジェームスウエブというハッブルの後継の地球周回軌道上の宇宙望遠鏡の活躍が止まらない。The James Webb Space Telescope, the successor to Hubble in Earth’s orbit, continues to amaze us.

最近見たYoutubeの中でショッキングだったのは、ビッグバンがあったであろう場所にすでに完成形の銀河系が多数あったというもの。One of the most shocking things I recently saw on YouTube was the discovery that fully formed galaxies already existed in the region where the Big Bang is believed to have occurred.

大きな銀河の形成には数十億年かかるため、ビッグバンの時点では発見されないハズ。Since the formation of large galaxies takes billions of years, they shouldn't have been detectable at the time of the Big Bang.

これはビッグバン理論を覆す発見であり、またまた宇宙の起源理論は振り出しに戻ってしまったようだ。This is a discovery that overturns the Big Bang theory, seemingly sending our understanding of the origin of the universe back to square one.

ただ、すべては設計された時空の中の話だ。現在の時空から出ることはできなくても、最低限、自分のいる世界の設計図ぐらいは知る努力をすべきだということ。　However, all of this is happening within a space-time framework that appears to be designed. Even if we cannot step outside our current space-time, we should at least make an effort to understand the blueprint of the world we live in.

AI 株価予測 20250718の状況
8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast -20250718

米経済指標は強く、景気後退の様子は見られない。インフレは再度ぶり返しそうな気配だ。この状況でパウエルが利下げできるわけはないが、トランプはパウエルを利下げ要求に応じるイエスマンにすげかえるべく画策中。今後のメインシナリオとしては、ここから少し上昇して天井を付け、調整を開始するというもの。SPXの１９３０年以降のトレンド上限で跳ね返されるというもの。U.S. economic indicators remain strong, with no signs of a recession. Inflation appears to be making a comeback. Under these circumstances, there is no way Powell can lower interest rates. However, Trump is reportedly maneuvering to replace Powell with a yes-man who would comply with demands for rate cuts. The main scenario going forward is a modest rise from here, followed by a peak and the start of a market correction—likely triggered by the S&P 500 being rejected at the upper trend line that dates back to 1930.

単なる株暴落、資産暴落であるならばこれは健全な調整と見るべき。米国がハイパーインフレで借金を吹き飛ばし財務の健全化を図るというシナリオ。ありえない話ではないが、そうなるとヘッジには実物資産しかなくなる。高配当安定株、不動産ETF、金ETFの割合を上げて現金比率を下げていく必要が出てくる。1930年の大恐慌時もハイパーインフレにはなっていない。もちろんハイパーインフレの定義だが、ジンバブエやベトナムのように、チューインガムを買うのに、何十万通貨単位を払う状態のことを指すとする。または以前のアルゼンチンの様に年間で１００％以上のインフレもハイパーインフレと言えるだろう。If this ends up being just a stock or asset crash, it should be viewed as a healthy correction. One scenario is that the U.S. attempts to wipe out its debt through hyperinflation to restore fiscal health. While not impossible, in such a case, only tangible assets could serve as a hedge. Investors would need to reduce cash holdings and increase allocations to high-dividend stable stocks, real estate ETFs, and gold ETFs. Note that even during the Great Depression of the 1930s, hyperinflation did not occur. Of course, the definition of hyperinflation matters. If we define it as a situation like Zimbabwe or Vietnam, where buying a stick of gum requires tens of thousands of currency units, or like the former Argentina with over 100% annual inflation, then it would certainly qualify.

参院選の結果、ざっくり、自公は２０議席を失い、国民、参政が１０づつ議席を増やしたが、自公は比較第一党を維持。衆院の状態がようやく参院に反映されただけで、自公がさらに議席を減らした感はない。進次郎米騒動効果が自民党を救ったかもしれない。国民、参政の躍進はインフレを根源とする有権者の行き詰まり感を表している。どの党も、インフレの根源である、行き過ぎたアベノミクスと日銀アコードの見直しをアジェンダにすることはなく、対局で見るとアベノミクス日銀の思うつぼで事は進んでいるようだ。As for the recent Upper House election, roughly speaking, the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition lost 20 seats, while the People's Party and Sanseito each gained about 10. However, the ruling bloc still maintained its position as the largest group. This result merely reflects the state of the Lower House being mirrored in the Upper House, and does not suggest a significant further decline for the ruling coalition. Ironically, the “Shinjiro Rice Riot” may have helped rescue the LDP. The rise of the People's Party and Sanseito reflects voter frustration rooted in inflation. Yet no party is willing to put on the agenda a fundamental review of the overly aggressive Abenomics and the BOJ Accord, which are the root causes of inflation. Viewed from a broader perspective, everything seems to be proceeding exactly as the architects of Abenomics and the BOJ would have hoped.

ただ、悪いシナリオとして、トランプのFRBへの利下げ要求、放漫財政が、さらなるバブルを引き起こす可能性も否定できない。そうなると、米国の金融風船は更に壊滅的な破裂まで突っ走ることになる。当面は１／３程度のリスクポジションを維持することで、万が一の上昇継続の場合にも対応できる。That said, a worse-case scenario cannot be ruled out: Trump’s pressure on the Fed for rate cuts and his reckless fiscal policies could trigger an even larger bubble. If that happens, the U.S. financial bubble could be headed for an even more devastating collapse. For the time being, maintaining a risk position of around one-third allows for flexibility in the event the market continues to rise unexpectedly.

トランプの新規政策、戦争など、突発的な暴落に対応するため、今後組み入れても、追加１／３程度で、総組み入れは最大２／３程度。To prepare for sudden market crashes triggered by new Trump policies or potential wars, even if I do resume buying, I plan to limit additional investments to about one-third, with total exposure capped at a maximum of two-thirds.

現状、総投資限度の１／３程度の配当重視（配当３％平均）のポジション。MUFG、SMFG、長谷工、三菱商事、村田製作所、トヨタ、金ＥＴＦ、他。Currently, dividend-focused positions (with an average dividend yield of 3%) account for about one-third of the total investment limit. Holdings include MUFG, SMFG, Haseko, Mitsubishi Corporation, Murata Manufacturing, Toyota, a gold ETF, and others.

日銀金利決定会合では利上げなしが大方の予想。

IMMは円買いに転換。IMM switched back to JPY buy.

海外勢は買いに転換。Foreign investors started to buy.

新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

現状日銀は７００兆円近くの国債を買い入れており、これは国債発行残高の６割近く。このうち６兆円が毎月満期になるため、月額６兆円を買い入れている。このため、月額買入を３兆円に減額すると１年間に３６兆円のQTとなる。全保有額を放出するには２０年近くかかるため、それまでは廃止したと言いながら継続しているYCCが続くことになる。これが国債が売られた背景。 Currently, the Bank of Japan holds nearly 700 trillion yen in government bonds, which is close to 60% of the total government bond issuance. Of this amount, 6 trillion yen matures every month, leading the BOJ to purchase 6 trillion yen monthly. Therefore, reducing the monthly purchases to 3 trillion yen results in a QT of 36 trillion yen annually. It would take nearly 20 years to completely unwind their holdings, so despite announcing the end of yield curve control (YCC), it effectively continues. This is why government bonds are being sold off.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

長谷工は下落トレンドから復帰。Haseko showed exit from down-trend.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

トランプはウクライナ問題の早期解決をプーチンと話し合う予定。ヨーロッパとウクライナは蚊帳の外。最悪の展開が待っている模様。Trump is going to talk Putin on the early resolution of Ukraine problem. Neither Europe nor Ukraine were invited. Worst case scenario is now expected.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

米国株はサームルール発動により景気後退入りが確実となった。

今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.