AI 株価予測 20250815の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast -20250815
SP500は、８月１２日火曜日のCPIの上昇が些少に留まったことから続伸。１４日木曜日のPPIは年率で１％近い上昇であったのにもかかわらず、下げを１日で埋めた。非農業従事者雇用者数の大幅下方修正に端を発した短期下落はかくして完全に打ち消され、上場来高値を追う上昇相場再開となったように見える。メガバンク株に至っては、説明不可能な上昇。外国人買いも収まってきているため、大手ファンドの組み入れ増によるものだろう。The S&P 500 continued to rise after the slight uptick in CPI on Tuesday, August 12. Despite Thursday, August 14’s PPI showing nearly a 1% year-over-year increase, the market erased the decline in just one day. Thus, the short-term drop triggered by the significant downward revision of nonfarm payrolls has been completely offset, and it now appears that the rally toward new all-time highs has resumed. As for megabank stocks, their surge is inexplicable; since foreign buying has subsided, it is likely driven by major funds increasing their allocations.
ただ、トランプ関税の影響は９月報告の８月分CPI、PPIから顕在化する。９月のCPIまでは突っ走るのだろうか？歴史的にFRBが利下げを開始すると株価は暴落を開始してきた。However, the impact of Trump’s tariffs will become evident starting with the August CPI and PPI reported in September. Will the market keep running until the September CPI? Historically, whenever the Fed has begun cutting rates, stock prices have entered a sharp decline.
若干の株数をリスクを承知で取った方が良いのか、落ちるまで静観するのが良いのかは分かれるだろう。１／３は常にホールドしつつ、残りの２／３を機動的に売買する方法が良いのかもしれないと考えがブレてしまいそうになる。Whether to take on a small position while acknowledging the risks, or to wait on the sidelines until a drop comes, will likely divide opinion. I sometimes find myself wavering toward the idea of always holding one-third of positions while trading the other two-thirds actively.
考え方としてはノーポジで暴落待ち。My fundamental stance, however, is to stay out of the market and wait for a crash.
テクニカル的には1930年からのトレンド上限に達し、また、バフェット指数その他のマクロ指数がバブルであることを示している。トランプの放任財政拡大により風船がさらに膨らむ状態で、なにかを切っ掛けに破裂を待っているのは明らか。On the technical side, the market has reached the upper limit of the trend line dating back to 1930, and macro indicators such as the Buffett Indicator are signaling a bubble. With Trump’s laissez-faire fiscal expansion further inflating the balloon, it is clear that the market is just waiting for some trigger to burst.
ただ、悪いシナリオとして、トランプのFRBへの利下げ要求、放漫財政が、さらなるバブルを引き起こす可能性も否定できない。そうなると、米国の金融風船は更に壊滅的な破裂まで突っ走ることになる。当面は１／３程度のリスクポジションを維持することで、万が一の上昇継続の場合にも対応できる。That said, a worse-case scenario cannot be ruled out: Trump’s pressure on the Fed for rate cuts and his reckless fiscal policies could trigger an even larger bubble. If that happens, the U.S. financial bubble could be headed for an even more devastating collapse. For the time being, maintaining a risk position of around one-third allows for flexibility in the event the market continues to rise unexpectedly.
SP500は、８月１２日火曜日のCPIの上昇が些少に留まったことから続伸。１４日木曜日のPPIは年率で１％近い上昇であったのにもかかわらず、下げを１日で埋めた。非農業従事者雇用者数の大幅下方修正に端を発した短期下落はかくして完全に打ち消され、上場来高値を追う上昇相場再開となったように見える。メガバンク株に至っては、説明不可能な上昇。外国人買いも収まってきているため、大手ファンドの組み入れ増によるものだろう。The S&P 500 continued to rise after the slight uptick in CPI on Tuesday, August 12. Despite Thursday, August 14’s PPI showing nearly a 1% year-over-year increase, the market erased the decline in just one day. Thus, the short-term drop triggered by the significant downward revision of nonfarm payrolls has been completely offset, and it now appears that the rally toward new all-time highs has resumed. As for megabank stocks, their surge is inexplicable; since foreign buying has subsided, it is likely driven by major funds increasing their allocations.
ただ、トランプ関税の影響は９月報告の８月分CPI、PPIから顕在化する。９月のCPIまでは突っ走るのだろうか？歴史的にFRBが利下げを開始すると株価は暴落を開始してきた。However, the impact of Trump’s tariffs will become evident starting with the August CPI and PPI reported in September. Will the market keep running until the September CPI? Historically, whenever the Fed has begun cutting rates, stock prices have entered a sharp decline.
若干の株数をリスクを承知で取った方が良いのか、落ちるまで静観するのが良いのかは分かれるだろう。１／３は常にホールドしつつ、残りの２／３を機動的に売買する方法が良いのかもしれないと考えがブレてしまいそうになる。Whether to take on a small position while acknowledging the risks, or to wait on the sidelines until a drop comes, will likely divide opinion. I sometimes find myself wavering toward the idea of always holding one-third of positions while trading the other two-thirds actively.
考え方としてはノーポジで暴落待ち。My fundamental stance, however, is to stay out of the market and wait for a crash.
テクニカル的には1930年からのトレンド上限に達し、また、バフェット指数その他のマクロ指数がバブルであることを示している。トランプの放任財政拡大により風船がさらに膨らむ状態で、なにかを切っ掛けに破裂を待っているのは明らか。On the technical side, the market has reached the upper limit of the trend line dating back to 1930, and macro indicators such as the Buffett Indicator are signaling a bubble. With Trump’s laissez-faire fiscal expansion further inflating the balloon, it is clear that the market is just waiting for some trigger to burst.
ただ、悪いシナリオとして、トランプのFRBへの利下げ要求、放漫財政が、さらなるバブルを引き起こす可能性も否定できない。そうなると、米国の金融風船は更に壊滅的な破裂まで突っ走ることになる。当面は１／３程度のリスクポジションを維持することで、万が一の上昇継続の場合にも対応できる。That said, a worse-case scenario cannot be ruled out: Trump’s pressure on the Fed for rate cuts and his reckless fiscal policies could trigger an even larger bubble. If that happens, the U.S. financial bubble could be headed for an even more devastating collapse. For the time being, maintaining a risk position of around one-third allows for flexibility in the event the market continues to rise unexpectedly.
トランプの新規政策、戦争など、突発的な暴落に対応するため、今後組み入れても、追加１／３程度で、総組み入れは最大２／３程度。To prepare for sudden market crashes triggered by new Trump policies or potential wars, even if I do resume buying, I plan to limit additional investments to about one-third, with total exposure capped at a maximum of two-thirds.
現状、ポジションはゼロ。Current position is zero.
トランプの新規政策、戦争など、突発的な暴落に対応するため、今後組み入れても、追加１／３程度で、総組み入れは最大２／３程度。To prepare for sudden market crashes triggered by new Trump policies or potential wars, even if I do resume buying, I plan to limit additional investments to about one-third, with total exposure capped at a maximum of two-thirds.
現状、ポジションはゼロ。Current position is zero.
日銀金利決定会合では利上げなしが大方の予想。
IMMは円買いに転換。IMM switched back to JPY buy.
海外勢は１８週ぶりに売りに転換。Foreign investors started to sell for the 1st time in 18 weeks.
新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.
米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.
根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.
米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.
米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.
PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?
QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.
ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.
長谷工は下落トレンドから復帰。Haseko showed exit from down-trend.
米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY
米国株はサームルール発動により景気後退入りが確実となった。
今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.
中国株は反発するも未だ復活していない。不動産不況から始まるバブル崩壊はまだ始まったばかりかもしれない。Chinese stocks have rebounded but have yet to recover. The bursting of the bubble, starting with the real estate recession, might have only just begun.
NY株は景気後退のシグナルが其処ここに出ているのを無視して、パウエルの利下げとM7のみの好況を理由に上昇しているが、これがいつまでも続くわけはない。Despite various signs of an economic downturn, NY stocks are rising, driven by Powell's interest rate cuts and the strong performance of the M7 companies. However, this cannot continue indefinitely.
VIXは上昇。Vix has gone up.
中国株は反発するも未だ復活していない。不動産不況から始まるバブル崩壊はまだ始まったばかりかもしれない。Chinese stocks have rebounded but have yet to recover. The bursting of the bubble, starting with the real estate recession, might have only just begun.
NY株は景気後退のシグナルが其処ここに出ているのを無視して、パウエルの利下げとM7のみの好況を理由に上昇しているが、これがいつまでも続くわけはない。Despite various signs of an economic downturn, NY stocks are rising, driven by Powell's interest rate cuts and the strong performance of the M7 companies. However, this cannot continue indefinitely.
VIXは上昇。Vix has gone up.
FEAR＆GREEDはへ強欲へ FEAR＆GREED dived into greed.
FEAR＆GREEDはへ強欲へ FEAR＆GREED dived into greed.
米金利の今後 US FF rate forecast
１１月の利下げは０．２５％となりそうだ。
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米インフレの鎮静化は一時停止状態で、失業率は低下し、景気はまだ強く、インフレ圧力の復活の可能性も秘めているように見える。これがパウエルが利下げを早期に行えない原因。The pacification of US inflation remains suspended, and with a decrease in the unemployment rate and continued strong economy, there seems to be a possibility of a resurgence of inflation pressure. This is the reason why Powell cannot cut interest rates early.
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