AI 株価予測 20250801の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast -20250801
JOLTSは30万人減少したものの、予想通り。GDPは３％と、予想より改善。木曜日早朝３AMのFOMCは金利据え置き、同日日銀も据置で、予想通り。発表直後の反応は大きくなかったため、日本時間木曜日終了時点ではまたぞろ上昇するかと思っていた。しかし、８月１日（金曜日）に起床してみると前日の木曜日、米株はチャート的にトレンド下落転換を示す抱き陰線。パウエルの演説後、米株は下落したようだ。金曜日、銀行株も大きく寄り付で売られる展開。このため、トレンド逆転サインと取り、全保有銘柄を寄り付き直後に売却。ところが、その金曜日は朝安のあと、日本株は回復を続け、プラスに転じてしまう。Although JOLTS fell by 300,000, it was in line with expectations. GDP came in at 3%, better than expected. At 3 AM on Thursday morning, the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged, and the Bank of Japan also held rates steady on the same day, both as expected. Since the immediate reaction after the announcements was muted, by the end of Thursday (Japan time) I thought the market might rise again. However, when I woke up on Friday, August 1, I found that on Thursday the U.S. stock market had formed a bearish engulfing candle, signaling a trend reversal. After Powell’s speech, U.S. stocks seemed to have fallen. On Friday, bank stocks were heavily sold at the open. Taking this as a trend reversal signal, I sold all my holdings right after the market opened. However, after the initial drop on Friday morning, Japanese stocks continued to recover and turned positive.
売った直後に買い戻すのはご法度なので、８月１日（金）はそのままノーポジションで終了。その夜、非農業部門雇用者数は予想を若干下回って上昇したものの、過去2カ月に渡り合計３０万人近い下方修正となる。失業率は予想通りで変わらず。ISMも変わらず。ミシガンは改善。全体として劇的な悪化は見られなかったが、非農業部門雇用者数の大幅な下方修正を理由にして相場は下げ始め、前日の抱き陰線を追認する下げとなった。Since buying back immediately after selling is taboo, I ended Friday, August 1, with no positions. That night, nonfarm payrolls came in slightly below expectations but rose, while revisions for the past two months totaled nearly 300,000 downward. The unemployment rate remained unchanged as expected. ISM also remained unchanged, while Michigan improved. Overall, there was no dramatic deterioration, but due to the large downward revision in nonfarm payrolls, the market began to fall, confirming the previous day’s bearish engulfing candle.
果たしてこれが４月の下落から続く上昇基調の終焉となるか、一時的な下落にとどまり再上昇を続けるかの判定が必要。今回の下げも米株の下げに引きずられる形で、火曜日にならないと米株の動きは分からないが、月曜寄り付き時点で米株先物はオープンするので気配を伺うことはできる。月曜日引け後４：３０PMは三菱UFJの決算日。It remains to be seen whether this marks the end of the uptrend that has continued since the April decline, or whether it is just a temporary pullback before the rally resumes. As this decline was also dragged down by U.S. stocks, we won’t know the U.S. market’s direction until Tuesday, but U.S. stock futures will open at the start of Monday trading, so we can watch the sentiment. After the close on Monday at 4:30 PM, Mitsubishi UFJ will announce its earnings.
現状個人は売り、外国人買いの東京市場だが、世界的な株安となると、外国人が売ってくる可能性もあるだろう。Currently, individuals are selling while foreigners are buying in the Tokyo market, but if global equities fall, foreigners may start selling as well.
テクニカル的には1930年からのトレンド上限に達し、また、バフェット指数その他のマクロ指数がバブルであることを示している。トランプの放任財政拡大により風船がさらに膨らむ状態で、なにかを切っ掛けに破裂を待っているのは明らか。On the technical side, the market has reached the upper limit of the trend line dating back to 1930, and macro indicators such as the Buffett Indicator are signaling a bubble. With Trump’s laissez-faire fiscal expansion further inflating the balloon, it is clear that the market is just waiting for some trigger to burst.
ただ、悪いシナリオとして、トランプのFRBへの利下げ要求、放漫財政が、さらなるバブルを引き起こす可能性も否定できない。そうなると、米国の金融風船は更に壊滅的な破裂まで突っ走ることになる。当面は１／３程度のリスクポジションを維持することで、万が一の上昇継続の場合にも対応できる。That said, a worse-case scenario cannot be ruled out: Trump’s pressure on the Fed for rate cuts and his reckless fiscal policies could trigger an even larger bubble. If that happens, the U.S. financial bubble could be headed for an even more devastating collapse. For the time being, maintaining a risk position of around one-third allows for flexibility in the event the market continues to rise unexpectedly.
JOLTSは30万人減少したものの、予想通り。GDPは３％と、予想より改善。木曜日早朝３AMのFOMCは金利据え置き、同日日銀も据置で、予想通り。発表直後の反応は大きくなかったため、日本時間木曜日終了時点ではまたぞろ上昇するかと思っていた。しかし、８月１日（金曜日）に起床してみると前日の木曜日、米株はチャート的にトレンド下落転換を示す抱き陰線。パウエルの演説後、米株は下落したようだ。金曜日、銀行株も大きく寄り付で売られる展開。このため、トレンド逆転サインと取り、全保有銘柄を寄り付き直後に売却。ところが、その金曜日は朝安のあと、日本株は回復を続け、プラスに転じてしまう。Although JOLTS fell by 300,000, it was in line with expectations. GDP came in at 3%, better than expected. At 3 AM on Thursday morning, the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged, and the Bank of Japan also held rates steady on the same day, both as expected. Since the immediate reaction after the announcements was muted, by the end of Thursday (Japan time) I thought the market might rise again. However, when I woke up on Friday, August 1, I found that on Thursday the U.S. stock market had formed a bearish engulfing candle, signaling a trend reversal. After Powell’s speech, U.S. stocks seemed to have fallen. On Friday, bank stocks were heavily sold at the open. Taking this as a trend reversal signal, I sold all my holdings right after the market opened. However, after the initial drop on Friday morning, Japanese stocks continued to recover and turned positive.
売った直後に買い戻すのはご法度なので、８月１日（金）はそのままノーポジションで終了。その夜、非農業部門雇用者数は予想を若干下回って上昇したものの、過去2カ月に渡り合計３０万人近い下方修正となる。失業率は予想通りで変わらず。ISMも変わらず。ミシガンは改善。全体として劇的な悪化は見られなかったが、非農業部門雇用者数の大幅な下方修正を理由にして相場は下げ始め、前日の抱き陰線を追認する下げとなった。Since buying back immediately after selling is taboo, I ended Friday, August 1, with no positions. That night, nonfarm payrolls came in slightly below expectations but rose, while revisions for the past two months totaled nearly 300,000 downward. The unemployment rate remained unchanged as expected. ISM also remained unchanged, while Michigan improved. Overall, there was no dramatic deterioration, but due to the large downward revision in nonfarm payrolls, the market began to fall, confirming the previous day’s bearish engulfing candle.
果たしてこれが４月の下落から続く上昇基調の終焉となるか、一時的な下落にとどまり再上昇を続けるかの判定が必要。今回の下げも米株の下げに引きずられる形で、火曜日にならないと米株の動きは分からないが、月曜寄り付き時点で米株先物はオープンするので気配を伺うことはできる。月曜日引け後４：３０PMは三菱UFJの決算日。It remains to be seen whether this marks the end of the uptrend that has continued since the April decline, or whether it is just a temporary pullback before the rally resumes. As this decline was also dragged down by U.S. stocks, we won’t know the U.S. market’s direction until Tuesday, but U.S. stock futures will open at the start of Monday trading, so we can watch the sentiment. After the close on Monday at 4:30 PM, Mitsubishi UFJ will announce its earnings.
現状個人は売り、外国人買いの東京市場だが、世界的な株安となると、外国人が売ってくる可能性もあるだろう。Currently, individuals are selling while foreigners are buying in the Tokyo market, but if global equities fall, foreigners may start selling as well.
テクニカル的には1930年からのトレンド上限に達し、また、バフェット指数その他のマクロ指数がバブルであることを示している。トランプの放任財政拡大により風船がさらに膨らむ状態で、なにかを切っ掛けに破裂を待っているのは明らか。On the technical side, the market has reached the upper limit of the trend line dating back to 1930, and macro indicators such as the Buffett Indicator are signaling a bubble. With Trump’s laissez-faire fiscal expansion further inflating the balloon, it is clear that the market is just waiting for some trigger to burst.
ただ、悪いシナリオとして、トランプのFRBへの利下げ要求、放漫財政が、さらなるバブルを引き起こす可能性も否定できない。そうなると、米国の金融風船は更に壊滅的な破裂まで突っ走ることになる。当面は１／３程度のリスクポジションを維持することで、万が一の上昇継続の場合にも対応できる。That said, a worse-case scenario cannot be ruled out: Trump’s pressure on the Fed for rate cuts and his reckless fiscal policies could trigger an even larger bubble. If that happens, the U.S. financial bubble could be headed for an even more devastating collapse. For the time being, maintaining a risk position of around one-third allows for flexibility in the event the market continues to rise unexpectedly.
トランプの新規政策、戦争など、突発的な暴落に対応するため、今後組み入れても、追加１／３程度で、総組み入れは最大２／３程度。To prepare for sudden market crashes triggered by new Trump policies or potential wars, even if I do resume buying, I plan to limit additional investments to about one-third, with total exposure capped at a maximum of two-thirds.
現状、総投資限度の１／３程度の配当重視（配当３％平均）のポジション。MUFG、SMFG、長谷工、三菱商事、村田製作所、トヨタ、金ＥＴＦ、他。Currently, dividend-focused positions (with an average dividend yield of 3%) account for about one-third of the total investment limit. Holdings include MUFG, SMFG, Haseko, Mitsubishi Corporation, Murata Manufacturing, Toyota, a gold ETF, and others.
トランプの新規政策、戦争など、突発的な暴落に対応するため、今後組み入れても、追加１／３程度で、総組み入れは最大２／３程度。To prepare for sudden market crashes triggered by new Trump policies or potential wars, even if I do resume buying, I plan to limit additional investments to about one-third, with total exposure capped at a maximum of two-thirds.
現状、総投資限度の１／３程度の配当重視（配当３％平均）のポジション。MUFG、SMFG、長谷工、三菱商事、村田製作所、トヨタ、金ＥＴＦ、他。Currently, dividend-focused positions (with an average dividend yield of 3%) account for about one-third of the total investment limit. Holdings include MUFG, SMFG, Haseko, Mitsubishi Corporation, Murata Manufacturing, Toyota, a gold ETF, and others.
日銀金利決定会合では利上げなしが大方の予想。
IMMは円買いに転換。IMM switched back to JPY buy.
海外勢は買いに転換。Foreign investors started to buy.
新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.
米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.
根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.
米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.
米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.
PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?
QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.
ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.
長谷工は下落トレンドから復帰。Haseko showed exit from down-trend.
米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY
米国株はサームルール発動により景気後退入りが確実となった。
今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.
中国株は反発するも未だ復活していない。不動産不況から始まるバブル崩壊はまだ始まったばかりかもしれない。Chinese stocks have rebounded but have yet to recover. The bursting of the bubble, starting with the real estate recession, might have only just begun.
NY株は景気後退のシグナルが其処ここに出ているのを無視して、パウエルの利下げとM7のみの好況を理由に上昇しているが、これがいつまでも続くわけはない。Despite various signs of an economic downturn, NY stocks are rising, driven by Powell's interest rate cuts and the strong performance of the M7 companies. However, this cannot continue indefinitely.
VIXは上昇。Vix has gone up.
中国株は反発するも未だ復活していない。不動産不況から始まるバブル崩壊はまだ始まったばかりかもしれない。Chinese stocks have rebounded but have yet to recover. The bursting of the bubble, starting with the real estate recession, might have only just begun.
NY株は景気後退のシグナルが其処ここに出ているのを無視して、パウエルの利下げとM7のみの好況を理由に上昇しているが、これがいつまでも続くわけはない。Despite various signs of an economic downturn, NY stocks are rising, driven by Powell's interest rate cuts and the strong performance of the M7 companies. However, this cannot continue indefinitely.
VIXは上昇。Vix has gone up.
FEAR＆GREEDはへ強欲へ FEAR＆GREED dived into greed.
FEAR＆GREEDはへ強欲へ FEAR＆GREED dived into greed.
米金利の今後 US FF rate forecast
１１月の利下げは０．２５％となりそうだ。
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米インフレの鎮静化は一時停止状態で、失業率は低下し、景気はまだ強く、インフレ圧力の復活の可能性も秘めているように見える。これがパウエルが利下げを早期に行えない原因。The pacification of US inflation remains suspended, and with a decrease in the unemployment rate and continued strong economy, there seems to be a possibility of a resurgence of inflation pressure. This is the reason why Powell cannot cut interest rates early.
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