AI 株価予測 20211008の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20211008 Status 8306MUFG

 

AI 株価予測 20211008の状況8306MUFG 

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20211008 Status 8306MUFG

月曜日、前回のＡＩ予測通りに新値は下値更新した。更新した時点でのAI予測は何故か上向き予想が頻出したが、中期上昇トレンドの下限を一旦は抜けると想定し、更なる下落を待った。ところが、金利の上昇を捉えた資金が火曜日から逆行買いを開始、金融株は急騰した。On Monday, MUFG went down as AI predicted. The next AI prediction after the revision of 3LB was 'up', shown many times, which I thought a bit funny.  Hence I waited until MUFG break through lower range of middle term upward trend.  However, taking the interest rate hike as a trigger point, some fund started to buy MUFG aggressively since Tuesday driving strong surge of MUFG stock price. 

現状、チャートは中期上昇トレンドの中間ラインで止まっている。そのままファンドが買い上げて上昇すれば放置だが、下がった場合は中期上昇トレンド下限ライン付近からトレード枠の残り２／３を投入する予定。Currently, chart looks holding at the middle line of upward middle term trend. If funds keeps buying, it is ok. However if bounded back from this point, I will wait until it goes close to lower range of middle term upward trend to buy another 2/3 of trading limit. 

NYの株は、現在テーパリングを控え、上昇は期待できず。結果、日経平均も連れ安しそうで、MUFGがこの中間ラインで跳ね返される可能性も大きい。NY stock is now hard to go up, waiting the start of the tapering. As a result, Nikkei may drop accordingly driving MUFG to be bounced back at this middle line. 

１０年金利　Interest Rate10Yr

[今回予測20211008］Forecast at this time 

[前回予測20210101］Previous Forecast 

MUFG 3LB M/W/D

NKY Daily

S&P500 = S&P495 + GAFAM 20211001

 S&P500 = S&P495 + GAFAM

20211001

先週末20211001のSP500の時価ランキングは、依然GAFAMが22%を占める。TeslaとNvidiaを加えると全体の1/4となる。SP500's market cap ranking as of last weekend shows 22% is occupied by GAFAM still. Including Tesla and Nvidia, it is 1/4. 

今回の米株調整局面でも、これらテック銘柄が下落要因となるのだろう。For the coming crush of US stocks, these techs will be the driver. 

AI 株価予測 20211001の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20211001 Status 8306MUFG

 

AI 株価予測 20211001の状況8306MUFG 

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20211001 Status 8306MUFG

今週は配当最終権利日まで株価は上昇し、その後、NYにつられて暴落した。現状、テーパリング、恒大、米株の過大評価修正など、リスクは山積み。ただ、長期上昇ラインのベースは守られていると考えられ、最悪ダウ１／３下げ（ダウ２２K）までは覚悟が必要だろう。また、銀行株については、テーパリングによる金利上昇が引き続き追い風になると考えられ、大幅な調整はない。もし大幅な下方価格調整があった場合には、高配当の安定銘柄として長期投資を増やせばよい。MUFG went up until last dividend day, then collapsed as NY went down. Currently risks are everywhere such as tapering, Evergrande, US stock overvalue, etc. However, I assume baseline at  Dow 1/3 down(around 22k) is rock solid. As far as bank stocks concern, I do not expect big price drop to happen due to following wind of interest rate hike by tapering that is going to start. If there is big downward price correction by any chance, I simply can increase high yield stable long term investment.

２７日月曜日には、トレンドのレンジ上限で売却、２８日火曜日には配当狙いの上昇を期待して再び参入し、引け成りで売却。同時に、長期保持ポジションであった２０％の銀行ETFは全額売却。配当落ちの２９日、配当落ちの下げとNYの暴落を見て、短期トレード枠の１／３だけ参入するものの、木曜日３０日、金曜日１日と、NYにつれて暴落。日経も崩れた。来週以降、中期トレンドの下限６２０近辺への下落を待って残りの２／３を順次投入予定。Sold on 27th Monday at the upper end of range, then bought once more on 28th Tuesday expecting rise due to dividend last day to sell at end of day. At the same time, sold all bank ETF position that is 20% of long term position. Went in 1/3 of short term trading limit however, MUFG fell down for Thursday Sep 30th and Friday, Oct 1st as NY collapsed. Nikkei collapsed as well. From next week, will buy another 2/3 as MUFG goes down close to lower range of middle term trend that is around 620. 

新値は日足が逆転、更新された。先週のAI予測は微減だった。結果、今回ピークを付けた後の暴落は予想できなかった。来週の予測は続落で、620が当面の買い目標ポイント。3LB(Three Line Break) day was revised reverted. Previous week's forecast was little down hence could not expect the collapse after it hit the peak. AI forecast of next week is a continued drop, hence expecting to buy around 620 for now. 

１０年金利　Interest Rate10Yr

[今回予測20211001］Forecast at this time 

[前回予測20210924］Previous Forecast 

MUFG 3LB M/W/D

NKY Daily

NY株の歴史 The History of NY Stock

 NY株の歴史

The History of NY Stock

NY株式の歴史を見ると、ドットコムバブル、リーマンショックと連なる。Looking at history of NY stock, we see .com bubble, Lehman shock. 

ランダムに見える株価も、上の対数グラフでは一定の変動幅であることがわかる。Although stock price move looks random, it stays within certain bound when shown in logarithmic chart above. 

すると、テーパリング、恒大グループ破綻による株価崩壊も、最低ラインは2２,000は割らないだろうということがわかる。Then we see that bottom line of this immediate stock market collapse just started, triggered by tapering as well as bankruptcy of Evergrande group, will not go below 22,000 line. 

現在35,000付近なので、１／３下落して、２／３になるということだ。That means that current 35,000 may drop for 1/3 to be 2/3. 

外国人参加者が売買量７割、保有率３割の日本株も同様の動きとなる。Japan stock, with foreign trading volume of 70% and ownership of 30%, will follow the same trend. 

日経平均３万円への再挑戦はまた先になりそうだ。The next challenge toward Nikkei 30,000 will be further than expected. 

AI 株価予測 20210924の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20210924 Status 8306MUFG

 

AI 株価予測 20210924の状況8306MUFG 

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20210924 Status 8306MUFG

今週は木曜まで恒大グループ倒産とFOMCで株価は暴落。売買は様子見。Evergrande group's bankruptcy and FOMC lead the collapse of the market this week until Thursday. Hence trading was on hold,  and I just watched how things went.  

その後、恒大グループの利払いはなされる方向となる一方、FOMCでは１１月からのテーパリングが再確認され、サプライズは無かった。結果、市場には安心感が戻り、株価は世界中で急伸した。Later this week, Evergrande group looked resuming coupon payment, also FOMC suggested tapering from Nov as previously indicated. There was no surprise. As a result, relief came back to the market and stock jumped globally.

中でも、金利上昇によるギャップ収益の拡大が見込める銀行株の戻りは早かったため、短期トレード枠の１／３を２４日寄り付きで買った。Among other stocks, banking sector advanced faster due to expansion of gapping profit as a result of interest rate hike. Hence I bought 1/3 of trade limit as of 24th market opening. 

恒大グループは氷山の一角で中国全体の不動産は日本の８０年代後期のバブル期と同じ状態になっているようだ。加えて、共産党が現在の準ー資本主義から純粋な共産主義へ回帰する方針だ。世界経済に与える影響は甚大だ。Evergrande group is only a tip of the iceberg of whole Chinese real estate industry that looks in the middle of bubble just like Japan was back in late 80's. On top of that, Communist part of China looks aiming to revert back to pure communism rather than current semi capitalism. Tremendous impact to the whole world is expected going forward. 

UST10Yr

[今回予測20210924］Forecast at this time 

[前回予測20210917］Forecast at this time 

MUFG 3LB M/W/D

Topix Daily

AI 株価予測 20210917の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20210917 Status 8306MUFG

 

AI 株価予測 20210917の状況8306MUFG 

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20210917 Status 8306MUFG

先週は13日に631.5で先週買い分の売り。14日に639.9で買うも、17日に640.6で売り。上昇レンジの上値抵抗線で跳ね返された。Last week, on 13th, sold at 631.5 for the last week buy. Bought at 639.9 on 14th and sold on 17th at 640.6. Bounced down at the upper resistance of upward range trend. 

先週のAI予測、640越えは的中した。今週は微増にとどまっているため、上昇レンジの下限620までの下落はあると予想。The AI forecast of last year hitting 640 was correct. The forecast of this week is a bit increase, hence drop down to 620 is possible scenario. 

NYは来週FOMC、中国の大手不動産会社破綻を境にいよいよ崩落に向かうかもしれず、日本株も影響は免れないだろう。日経平均も頭を垂れ、MACDも陰転。NY stock may collapse next week triggered by FOMC, bankruptcy of big Chinese real estate firm, hence impact to Japanese stock is inevitable. Trend of Nikkei looks hitting the top and MACD indicates negative trend going forward. 

連休の今週、日本は３営業日のみだ。本日月曜日夜10時からのNYの動きに注目。Next week has only 3 market-open days. Let's watch what will happen in NY market 1st, today 10PM. 

[今回予測20210917］Forecast at this time 

[前回予測20210910］Previous forecast

ダメ元の薬 A Cure Medicine, Nothing to Lose

 ダメ元の薬

A Cure Medicine, Nothing to Lose

ダメ元の意味を考えてみた。Just thought of the meaning of 'Nothing to lose'. 

数十年前に認可され、３０億人以上に処方された、認可用量であれば、副作用は些少な薬があったとする。新薬と違い、長期の運用実績で、その安全性は明確になっている。Assuming that there is a drug that has been prescribed for decades to more than 3bn people with minimal side effect under the approved dose. Compared to the brand new drug, the safety is distinct through long term clinical evidence. 

その薬をコロナ患者に認可用量範囲で、適用外処方すると、何が起こるだろうか？ What can happen if the approved dose of the drug is prescribed to Covid-19 patients as off-label use medicine?

今、その薬のコロナに対する効果について、世間は大騒ぎだ。Now world is in confusion under the efficacy of that medicine. 

賛成派、反対派の両者に公平にするため、To be fair to both sides, pro and cons, let's assume that, 

その薬が効く確率が５０％、50% probability that the drug is effective

効かない確率は５０％ 50% chance that the drug is not effective

としよう。

今、コロナの死亡率を１％とする。Now assume that mortality of Covid-19 is 1%.

すると、服用する、しない、の選択後の死亡確率は次のようになる。Then, the mortality after the selection of intake of cure medicine will be, 

服用した場合の死亡確率　１％　X　５０％　＝　０．５％ Mortality when took the drug

服用しない場合の死亡確率　１％　X　１００％　＝　１％ Mortality if the drug was not taken

あれ！OMG! 

効く確率が５０％なのに、死亡確率は半分になった！Although the probability of efficacy is only 50%, the probability of death is now half. 

これがいわゆる「ダメ元」である。 This is so-called 'nothing to lose'. 

昔から、医薬分野に「三た」として、揶揄されている思考法があった。服用し「た」、治っ「た」、効い「た」。病気は薬なしでも治る場合も多く、薬が本当に効能を発揮したのか定かでない訳だ。そこで、証拠ベースの医療（EBM）が提唱され、二重盲検（RCT）などのより厳格な検証を行う事になった。「三た」があまりに直感ベースであった反動で、RCTは「科学の光」として崇められ、ついには、RCTを行わないと一歩も先に進まない状態を作り出してしまった。Once upon a time, there was a way of thinking teased as three 'ta' theory in medical field. That is, took the drug (Fukuyou shi ta), recovered (Naot ta), then judge as effective(kii ta). Many sickness can be cured without medicine, hence it is not clear if that medicine actually worked or not. Hence, evidenced based medicine (EBM) was advocated with stringent randomized control test(RCT) to stand out as mainstream procedure in clinical trial. As a strong indication of anti-these of three 'ta', that was too intuitive, RCT was adored as "a light of science", then ended up creating a situation where no RCT, nothing to move forward. 

以前、同様の記事を出しているので、重複になってしまったが、今回は、もっと簡単にわかりやすく書いてみた。I posted similar article, hence this can be redundant however, this time I tried to write more casual. 

東京コロナ感染者激減のヒミツ Sudden Reduction of Covid-19 in Tokyo, a Secret Reason

 東京コロナ感染者激減のヒミツ

Sudden Reduction of Covid-19 in Tokyo, Secret Reason

夏以降、東京ではコロナの患者数が激減している。多くの人が不思議に思っている。Since this summer, the number of Covid-19 infections in Tokyo has been reducing drastically, making many wonder WHY? 

気温か？長雨か？自粛効果か？ワクチンか？はたまた、私がやっているような、イベルメクチン個人輸入の普及か？Temperature drop? Long rain? Self rock-down? Vaccination? Or individual import based Ivermectin effect, just like I have been doing? 

その中で、注目すべき仮説は、Error Catastropheだ。ウイルスが自己複製を繰り返す間、複製間違いが発生し、何世代か後には絶滅してしまうというものだ。Among other hypothesis, I am focusing on the Error Catastrophe theory. This theory is saying that, as one specific kind of virus group reproduce themselves generation after generation, copy-error happens, and it eventually goes extinct after few generations.

この理論を適用すると、一つ一つの山はウイルスが増殖を始めてから死滅するまでの過程を示すことになる。一旦ある種が死滅しても、突然変異を起こして発生した次の変異種が再び増殖し、そしてまた死滅していく。Based on this theory, each set of surge and decline represents the virus reproduction and extinction process of one specific variant of virus.  Even if that specific variant of virus has gone extinct, another mutated variant will once more start reproducing and also will go extinct after few generations of mutation. 

現状で、ワクチンは一つのウイルス種について有効だが、変異すると効果は落ちる。これに普遍的に対応するには、ウイルスの自己複製を止める治療薬がやはり必要だろう。At this moment, vaccine is effective for one specific kind of virus, hence has less efficacy for the mutated variant. To cope with this problem more robust, we do need to have cure medicine to stop reproduction of virus in the 1st place. 

AI 株価予測 20210910の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20210910 Status 8306MUFG

  

AI 株価予測 20210910の状況8306MUFG 

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20210910 Status 8306MUFG

６日（月）ウエッジを抜けられなかったため一旦売り、７日（火）抜けたため買い、８日（水）MUFGのみ理由なく突出したため一旦売り、９日（木）突出が解消し下がったため再度買い、10日（金）は上昇で放置。AI予想は日足で続伸。Sold on 6th since MUFG failed to break through wedge. Bought on 7th since it broke through the wedge. Sold on 8th since only MUFG went up strong among banks without reason. Bought on 9th since price went down aligning the other banks. No action on 10th since it just went up.　AI forecasted upward for daily.

３万円の節目抜けに際し、日経平均への外資系のまとまった買いが入ってきた影響がMUFGにも及んでいるようだ。金利動向より、日本株の水準訂正が要因だろう。Facing break through of 30K level, quite some flow of buy came into MUFG from foreign banks. Rather than interest rate, level adjustment looks main driver to be attributed to this rise.

来週は、続伸が大方の見方だ。上昇レンジの次の上値抵抗線は640円近辺で、これをすんなり抜けるかがまず試されそうだ。Next week, many expects stock to rise. Next target is around 640, that is the upper bound of upward range. It is important to break through this range to keep the position.

ただ、週末のNYダウ、NASDAQ急落を受けて、米国はついに暴落開始するという見方も多く、注意しながら進みたい。However need to note that some expects US stocks to start crashing triggered by NY Dow and NASDAQ sudden drop on weekend. 

[今回予測20210910］Forecast at this time 

[前回予測20210903］Previous forecast

AI 株価予測 20210903の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20210903 Status 8306MUFG

 

AI 株価予測 20210903の状況8306MUFG 

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20210903 Status 8306MUFG

週初に上昇レンジから離脱したため一旦売却したが、月末を挟んで回帰したため再度購入した。Sold in the beginning of the week since price dropped outside of upward range however, purchased once more since it reverted back on upward range once more spanning over the month end.

MUFGの上昇は、個別要因でなく、NK225先物の上昇の要因が大きい。MUFG's rise is attributed rather on systematic NK225 rise factor than specific factor on MUFG.

来週はウエッジの上端までが一応の売却メドとなりそうだ。もし、これを勢いよく抜けることが出来ればさらに上の上昇トレンドレンジを追える。Next week, focus will be on sell timing when it come close to upper end of wedge. If price breaks up the range strongly, then further upward trend range will be sought out. 

菅総理の首相交代のニュースを受け、NK225のチャートは下方レンジを上抜けしたため、来週は上値を試す展開になるかもしれない。Facing the replacement of the prime minister Suga, Nikkei225 did exit from downward range, hence next week we may see further development seeking for further upward zone. 

[今回予測20210903］Forecast at this time 

変化なし

[前回予測20210827］Previous forecast