AI 株価予測 20241101の状況8306MUFG
Stock Price AI Forecast -20241101

日経平均は実に不思議な動きをした。自公過半数割れで大方の予想は株の暴落だった。ところが、月火水と株は力強く上げ続けた。実は先物を使った仕掛けだったようで、その効果は木金の下落で帳消しとなった。先週の投資主体別売買動向を見ても、海外の現物買いや年金買いは入っていないことが分かる。ただ、メガバンクセクターには現物買いが入り、週末にかけてもその買いは解消されておらず、高止まりとなっている。日銀の利上げの期待を含んでの買いかもしれない。The Nikkei Index moved in a truly mysterious way. With the ruling coalition falling short of a majority, the consensus was that stocks would crash. However, the market surged strongly on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. It seems this rally was actually driven by futures trading tactics, and this effect was offset by the decline on Thursday and Friday. Last week's breakdown of trading activity by investment groups shows no physical buying from overseas investors or pension funds. However, there was physical buying in the megabank sector, which continued into the weekend and has remained at a high level. This buying could be based on expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike.

米景気指標は、火曜日のJOLTSなどの雇用指標の悪化を受け、下落、日経平均も後を追って下落した。その後、金曜日の非農業部門雇用者数の伸びの下落を受けて、更に下落するかと思われたが、これは何と上昇。しかし、今週の下落で上昇チャネルからは離脱、金曜日の上昇も上昇チャネルが上値抵抗線となり、上値抵抗線にタッチした後下落し、上ヒゲを付けた。U.S. economic indicators, such as the JOLTS job data on Tuesday, deteriorated, leading to a decline, and the Nikkei followed suit. Later, with the release of Friday's lower-than-expected nonfarm payroll growth, further declines were anticipated, but surprisingly, the market rose. However, with this week's decline, the index has broken out of its upward channel. On Friday, the channel's upper boundary acted as resistance, and after touching it, the index fell, forming an upper shadow.

チャートとしては、下落開始のサイン満載となっており、来週の大統領選後は、一気に暴落となってもおかしくない状態となっている。ノーポジション継続。From a chart perspective, there are numerous signs indicating the start of a downtrend, and following next week’s presidential election, a sudden crash would not be surprising. I will maintain a no-position stance.

米株はダウ、SP500、NASDAQとも８／５フラッシュクラッシュからの反発トレンドを下方ブレーク。来週からの急回復で否定されなければ一旦下降トレンドに向かいそう。The U.S. stock indices—the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ—have broken below the rebound trend that began after the flash crash on August 5. If there isn’t a sharp recovery next week, it seems likely that they may be heading into a temporary downtrend.

UST10とUSD/JPYは２６０日移動平均では反落せず、USD/JPYは一旦割った上昇トレンドに復帰して、なおかつ上昇トレンドが下値抵抗線となったようなチャート。The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (UST10) and USD/JPY did not pull back at the 260-day moving average. The USD/JPY appears to have re-entered its previously breached uptrend, with the uptrend line now acting as a support level, according to the chart.

首相指名特別国会は１１月１１日召集の模様。自民党に寝返った国民民主党の玉木代表は自公政権の成立を確実にすると公言。立憲民主の野田代表は政治家なのに根回しが下手で野党をまとめる力が無い。来年夏の参議院選挙までは不安定な政治状況が継続。日銀アコードの見直しが俎上に上がってきたときの国会対応に注目したい。A special session of the Diet for the selection of the Prime Minister is expected to be convened on November 11. Tamaki, the leader of the Democratic Party for the People, who recently shifted allegiance to the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), has openly stated that he will ensure the formation of the LDP-Komeito coalition government. On the other hand, the Constitutional Democratic Party's leader, Noda, lacks the skill to negotiate behind the scenes and has been unable to unify the opposition, despite being a politician. Until the House of Councillors election next summer, Japan’s political landscape is expected to remain unstable. Attention should be given to how the Diet will handle discussions on revisiting the Bank of Japan Accord if it becomes a topic.

ADRは一様に反発。ADRs have uniformly rebounded.

来週はARMなどAI銘柄の決算。Next week, companies in the AI sector, including ARM, will be reporting their earnings.

IMMはついに円売りに戻ってしまった。こうなると、為替介入がどこで入るかが注目。The IMM has finally returned to yen selling. With this, attention will be focused on where foreign exchange intervention might come in.

円高による企業収益の予想EPS算定の際の基準為替レートは円高が始まった７月から修正されていないようで、EPSはドル円下落にもかかわらず上昇を続けている。現在ドル円は２０２４年の年初まで下落している。円高回帰修正された想定為替レートを用い、EPSが修正されると、ドル円と同様、２０２４年の年初レベルまで日経平均予想が下落してしまう恐れがある。Regarding corporate earnings, the forecast exchange rate used for calculating estimated EPS has not been adjusted since the yen appreciation began in July. As a result, EPS has continued to rise despite the dollar-yen decline. Currently, the dollar-yen rate is dropping toward the beginning of 2024 levels. If EPS is recalculated using an exchange rate adjusted for the yen’s appreciation, there is a risk that, like the dollar-yen rate, the Nikkei forecast could also fall back to early 2024 levels.

VIXが再上昇を始めた。VIX resumed rising.

トレードTrading:

引き続き様子見でノーポジション。Continue to stay on the sidelines with no positions.

バークシャー・ハサウェイの現金比率は記録的な２８％となった。リーマンショックの前から現金比率が低下し、リーマンショック時に最低の現金比率、その後リーマンショックからの相場回復につれて、現金比率が再び上昇しているのが分かる。Berkshire Hathaway cash ratio hit record high of 28%. From the transition in the chart, you can see that Buffet started decreasing cash ratio from right before the Lehman shock, then gradually increased cash ratio after the bottom of Lehman shock.

MUFGは明らかに上昇トレンドから離脱している。MUFG showed outright deviation from uprising trend.

ハリスは話に具体性が無いことから有権者に見放され、トランプが優位の展開になっている。Harris is losing support from voters due to the lack of specificity in her statements, which is giving Trump the advantage.

メガバンク各社は各々、再度上昇トレンドに回帰中。Each of the megabanks is once again returning to an upward trend.

新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.

中国株は年初から再上昇を始めているが、不動産問題が更に火を噴く可能性が高く、一時的な戻りと考えられる。Chinese stocks have been rebounding since the beginning of the year, but there is a high possibility of further escalation of the real estate issue, suggesting a temporary rebound.

半導体も急落。Semi Conductors went down as well.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

今週は雇用統計など、米経済減速を示す経済指標の発表が相次いだ。来週は、木曜日のインフレ率発表。This week saw the release of various economic indicators pointing to a slowdown in the U.S. economy, including employment statistics. Next week, the inflation rate will be announced on Thursday.

現状日銀は７００兆円近くの国債を買い入れており、これは国債発行残高の６割近く。このうち６兆円が毎月満期になるため、月額６兆円を買い入れている。このため、月額買入を３兆円に減額すると１年間に３６兆円のQTとなる。全保有額を放出するには２０年近くかかるため、それまでは廃止したと言いながら継続しているYCCが続くことになる。これが国債が売られた背景。 Currently, the Bank of Japan holds nearly 700 trillion yen in government bonds, which is close to 60% of the total government bond issuance. Of this amount, 6 trillion yen matures every month, leading the BOJ to purchase 6 trillion yen monthly. Therefore, reducing the monthly purchases to 3 trillion yen results in a QT of 36 trillion yen annually. It would take nearly 20 years to completely unwind their holdings, so despite announcing the end of yield curve control (YCC), it effectively continues. This is why government bonds are being sold off.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

長谷工は下落トレンドから復帰。Haseko showed exit from down-trend.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

三菱重工は大きく反発した。Mitsubishi Heavy Industries saw a significant rebound.

ウクライナは時刻開発の長距離ドローン、FPVドローン、欧米供与の長距離ミサイル、により善戦しているが、ロシアは膨大な戦死者を厭わずに執拗に侵略を僅かずつ拡大している。トランプが幸運にも暗殺を免れ神格化されたヒーローとなってしまったうえ、バイデンの健康が支持率を妨げている今、１１月の大統領選はトランプに大きく傾いている。その結果、ウクライナの将来、ひいては、グローバルな安全の枠組みには暗雲が立ち込めている。一方、ロシアの戦争を仕掛けた国内の犠牲も限界に近付きつつある。Ukraine is putting up a good fight using domestically developed long-range drones, FPV drones, and long-range missiles supplied by Western countries. However, Russia is persistently expanding its invasion little by little, showing no concern for the massive number of casualties. With Trump narrowly escaping assassination and becoming a deified hero, and Biden's health hindering his approval ratings, the November presidential election is heavily tilted in Trump's favor. As a result, dark clouds are looming over Ukraine's future and the global security framework. On the other hand, the domestic toll of Russia's war efforts is also nearing its limit.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

米国株はサームルール発動により景気後退入りが確実となった。

今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.