AI 株価予測 20250131の状況
8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast -20250131

日米とも株価は続伸するかと思われた矢先、中国製AIのDeepSeekが1/100の価格でOpenAIのChatGPTと同性能となる事が発表され、NVIDIA等の粗利益70%台のGPUの利益率が激減するとの思惑から、株価は急落した。Just when it seemed that stock prices in both Japan and the U.S. would continue to rise, it was announced that the Chinese AI DeepSeek had achieved performance on par with OpenAI's ChatGPT at just 1/100th of the cost. This led to concerns that the profit margins of GPUs, such as those from NVIDIA, which had been in the 70% range, would plummet, causing stock prices to drop sharply.

その後、週末に向け反発したが、インフレ、消費の強さなどから利下げが遠のくこと、トランプが２／４からメキシコ、カナダに２５％の関税、中国に１０％関税をかけることを決定したことを受けて株価は再度下向き始めた。Afterward, stocks rebounded heading into the weekend. However, expectations of delayed rate cuts due to inflation and strong consumer spending, along with Trump's decision to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on China starting February 4, caused stock prices to trend downward again.

月曜日の米国株急落を受けて、火曜日に２週間ぶりに１／２０程度購入。Following the sharp decline in U.S. stocks on Monday, I made a small purchase on Tuesday—about 1/20th of my planned investment, marking the first buy in two weeks.

現状、１／１０程度の配当重視（配当３．１％平均）のポジション損益は、現状フラット。MUFG（３．２１％）、長谷工（４．３１％）、三菱商事（４．０７％）、村田製作所（２．２９％）、トヨタ（３．２３％）、JFE（５．８２％）、住友金属鉱山（２．７５％）、金ＥＴＦ。The current exposure is about 1/10 with with an average dividend yield of 3.1%. Notable positions include MUFG (3.21%), Haseko Corporation (4.31%), Mitsubishi Corporation (4.07%), Murata Manufacturing (2.29%), Toyota (3.23%), JFE Holdings (5.82%), Sumitomo Metal Mining (2.75%), and a gold ETF.

今週は引き続き株価天井圏のもみ合いが続く模様。今後は、２週間に１回程度のドルコストで１／２０程度を購入、１１月中旬にはフルインベストメントになるペースを想定してはいる。基本的に暴落待ち。This week, the market appears to remain in a consolidation phase near its peak. Going forward, I plan to continue dollar-cost averaging with purchases of about 1/20th every two weeks, aiming for full investment by mid-November. Fundamentally, I am waiting for a major market crash.

来週は13日水曜日のインフレ率が焦点。

IMMはついに円売りに戻ってしまった。こうなると、為替介入がどこで入るかが注目。The IMM has finally returned to yen selling. With this, attention will be focused on where foreign exchange intervention might come in.

円高による企業収益の予想EPS算定の際の基準為替レートは円高が始まった７月から修正されていないようで、EPSはドル円下落にもかかわらず上昇を続けている。現在ドル円は２０２４年の年初まで下落している。円高回帰修正された想定為替レートを用い、EPSが修正されると、ドル円と同様、２０２４年の年初レベルまで日経平均予想が下落してしまう恐れがある。Regarding corporate earnings, the forecast exchange rate used for calculating estimated EPS has not been adjusted since the yen appreciation began in July. As a result, EPS has continued to rise despite the dollar-yen decline. Currently, the dollar-yen rate is dropping toward the beginning of 2024 levels. If EPS is recalculated using an exchange rate adjusted for the yen’s appreciation, there is a risk that, like the dollar-yen rate, the Nikkei forecast could also fall back to early 2024 levels.

海外勢は買いに転換してきた。Foreign investors switched to net buy.

トレードTrading:

引き続き様子見でノーポジション。Continue to stay on the sidelines with no positions.

メガバンク各社は各々、再度上昇トレンドに回帰中。Each of the megabanks is once again returning to an upward trend.

新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.

中国株は政府の大規模支援策が発表されたため大幅に反発したものの、根は更に深く、根本的な解決にはまだ時間がかかるとの見方から下落に転じている。

半導体も急落。Semi Conductors went down as well.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

現状日銀は７００兆円近くの国債を買い入れており、これは国債発行残高の６割近く。このうち６兆円が毎月満期になるため、月額６兆円を買い入れている。このため、月額買入を３兆円に減額すると１年間に３６兆円のQTとなる。全保有額を放出するには２０年近くかかるため、それまでは廃止したと言いながら継続しているYCCが続くことになる。これが国債が売られた背景。 Currently, the Bank of Japan holds nearly 700 trillion yen in government bonds, which is close to 60% of the total government bond issuance. Of this amount, 6 trillion yen matures every month, leading the BOJ to purchase 6 trillion yen monthly. Therefore, reducing the monthly purchases to 3 trillion yen results in a QT of 36 trillion yen annually. It would take nearly 20 years to completely unwind their holdings, so despite announcing the end of yield curve control (YCC), it effectively continues. This is why government bonds are being sold off.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

長谷工は下落トレンドから復帰。Haseko showed exit from down-trend.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

三菱重工は大きく反発した。Mitsubishi Heavy Industries saw a significant rebound.

ウクライナは時刻開発の長距離ドローン、FPVドローン、欧米供与の長距離ミサイル、により善戦しているが、ロシアは膨大な戦死者を厭わずに執拗に侵略を僅かずつ拡大している。トランプが幸運にも暗殺を免れ神格化されたヒーローとなってしまったうえ、バイデンの健康が支持率を妨げている今、１１月の大統領選はトランプに大きく傾いている。その結果、ウクライナの将来、ひいては、グローバルな安全の枠組みには暗雲が立ち込めている。一方、ロシアの戦争を仕掛けた国内の犠牲も限界に近付きつつある。Ukraine is putting up a good fight using domestically developed long-range drones, FPV drones, and long-range missiles supplied by Western countries. However, Russia is persistently expanding its invasion little by little, showing no concern for the massive number of casualties. With Trump narrowly escaping assassination and becoming a deified hero, and Biden's health hindering his approval ratings, the November presidential election is heavily tilted in Trump's favor. As a result, dark clouds are looming over Ukraine's future and the global security framework. On the other hand, the domestic toll of Russia's war efforts is also nearing its limit.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

米国株はサームルール発動により景気後退入りが確実となった。

今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.