AI 株価予測 20250221の状況
8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast -20250221

週初の仕掛け買いで2000円台に突入。今後は、2000円台でのレンジに入ると考え、MUFGのみ買い増し。ところが、米株がトランプ関税のためか下落を開始し、日本株も下落した。金曜日の米株及びMUFGのADRは大きく下落。Entered the 2,000-yen range with buying momentum at the start of the week. I expected the stock to trade within the 2,000-yen range going forward, so I only increased my position in MUFG. However, U.S. stocks began to decline, possibly due to Trump’s tariffs, leading to a drop in Japanese stocks as well. On Friday, both U.S. stocks and MUFG’s ADR fell sharply.

現状、１／４程度の配当重視（配当３．１％平均）のポジション損益は、若干マイナス。MUFG（３．２１％）、長谷工（４．３１％）、三菱商事（４．０７％）、村田製作所（２．２９％）、トヨタ（３．２３％）、金ＥＴＦ。Currently, a dividend-focused position (with an average dividend yield of approximately 3.1%) is at a break-even level. Holdings include MUFG (3.21%), Haseko (4.31%), Mitsubishi Corporation (4.07%), Murata Manufacturing (2.29%), Toyota (3.23%), and a gold ETF.

来週は月曜日が休日のため、米株の動向と日経先物を見てからの判断となる。週末の米株の下落が今年来るであろう大暴落の開始なのか、それとも、一時的な下落でしばらくするとまたぞろ上昇を再開するのかはわからない。現状経済指標は若干の不安要素を持つものの、いまだ景気の持続を示唆しているため、本格的な経済指標の悪化と景気後退、暴落の開始はもう少し先であると考えられる。Since Monday is a holiday next week, the plan is to monitor the movement of U.S. stocks and Nikkei futures before making any decisions. It is unclear whether the drop in U.S. stocks at the end of the week marks the start of a major crash expected this year, or if it is merely a temporary decline before the market resumes its upward trend. While current economic indicators show some uncertainties, they still suggest continued economic strength.

Therefore, it seems likely that a genuine deterioration in economic indicators, an economic downturn, and a market crash are still a bit further down the road.

今回下落ポイントからのエントリーではないが、どこから入ったとしても最初の一手はリスクを伴う。このため、最初の一手はそのまま保持。下落した場合は、1000円に向かって段階的に新値ごとに買い増していく方針。Although this entry wasn’t made from a low point in the market, any initial move carries risk regardless of the entry point. For this reason, I will maintain the initial position as is. If the market declines, the plan is to gradually increase holdings at each new price level, aiming toward the 1,000-yen range.

来週は13日水曜日のインフレ率が焦点。

IMMは円買いに転換。IMM switched back to JPY buy.

海外勢は売りが継続、個人が買う悪い展開に。Foreigh investors are selling while Japanese investors are buying. This is not a good pattern.

新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

現状日銀は７００兆円近くの国債を買い入れており、これは国債発行残高の６割近く。このうち６兆円が毎月満期になるため、月額６兆円を買い入れている。このため、月額買入を３兆円に減額すると１年間に３６兆円のQTとなる。全保有額を放出するには２０年近くかかるため、それまでは廃止したと言いながら継続しているYCCが続くことになる。これが国債が売られた背景。 Currently, the Bank of Japan holds nearly 700 trillion yen in government bonds, which is close to 60% of the total government bond issuance. Of this amount, 6 trillion yen matures every month, leading the BOJ to purchase 6 trillion yen monthly. Therefore, reducing the monthly purchases to 3 trillion yen results in a QT of 36 trillion yen annually. It would take nearly 20 years to completely unwind their holdings, so despite announcing the end of yield curve control (YCC), it effectively continues. This is why government bonds are being sold off.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

長谷工は下落トレンドから復帰。Haseko showed exit from down-trend.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

トランプはウクライナ問題の早期解決をプーチンと話し合う予定。ヨーロッパとウクライナは蚊帳の外。最悪の展開が待っている模様。Trump is going to talk Putin on the early resolution of Ukraine problem. Neither Europe nor Ukraine were invited. Worst case scenario is now expected.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

米国株はサームルール発動により景気後退入りが確実となった。

今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.