AI 株価予測 20250620の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast -20250620
イスラエルはイランの核施設を破壊するとして大量のミサイルを撃ち込み、迎えるイランはイスラエルの都市を同じく大量のミサイルで攻撃した。トランプは完全なイスラエル寄りでイランの全面降伏が無い場合は参戦を明言した。Israel launched a massive missile strike, declaring its intent to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. In response, Iran also attacked Israeli cities with a large number of missiles. Trump, fully siding with Israel, stated clearly that the U.S. would intervene unless Iran surrendered completely.
この危機的状況にもかかわらず、株価は大きく下落することもなく、レンジで推移しているのは驚異的だ。トランプは今後２週間で米国の参戦を決定するとして、イランに核兵器放棄の政治的圧力をかけ続けている。Despite this critical situation, it is astonishing that stock prices have not dropped significantly and continue to move within a range. Trump has stated he will decide on U.S. involvement within the next two weeks and continues to exert political pressure on Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons.
しかし、果たして６月２２日（日曜日）、トランプはイランの核施設を爆撃した。トランプは完全に破壊したと演説したが、イラン側はすでに退避済みで被害は些少であると主張し、徹底抗戦の様子。However, on Sunday, June 22, Trump did in fact bomb Iran's nuclear facilities. He declared in a speech that they were completely destroyed, but Iran claimed they had already evacuated the sites and damage was minimal, signaling their intent to resist thoroughly.
イランのウラン濃縮率は６０％だが、そのレベルでも核兵器は作れるらしく、追い詰められたイランがエルサレムに向けて核を発射する可能性も残されている。Iran's uranium enrichment level stands at 60%, which, according to reports, is sufficient to produce nuclear weapons. There remains a possibility that a cornered Iran might launch a nuclear strike toward Jerusalem.
明日からの株価はSUNDAYDOWが示すように下落して始まる可能性が高いだろうが、毎週下落予測をしてきて、実際はさほど下がっていないのも事実。Although tomorrow’s stock market is likely to open lower, as indicated by the Sunday Dow, it's also true that despite weekly forecasts of declines, the market has not fallen much in reality.
イスラエルはイランの核施設を破壊するとして大量のミサイルを撃ち込み、迎えるイランはイスラエルの都市を同じく大量のミサイルで攻撃した。トランプは完全なイスラエル寄りでイランの全面降伏が無い場合は参戦を明言した。Israel launched a massive missile strike, declaring its intent to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. In response, Iran also attacked Israeli cities with a large number of missiles. Trump, fully siding with Israel, stated clearly that the U.S. would intervene unless Iran surrendered completely.
この危機的状況にもかかわらず、株価は大きく下落することもなく、レンジで推移しているのは驚異的だ。トランプは今後２週間で米国の参戦を決定するとして、イランに核兵器放棄の政治的圧力をかけ続けている。Despite this critical situation, it is astonishing that stock prices have not dropped significantly and continue to move within a range. Trump has stated he will decide on U.S. involvement within the next two weeks and continues to exert political pressure on Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons.
しかし、果たして６月２２日（日曜日）、トランプはイランの核施設を爆撃した。トランプは完全に破壊したと演説したが、イラン側はすでに退避済みで被害は些少であると主張し、徹底抗戦の様子。However, on Sunday, June 22, Trump did in fact bomb Iran's nuclear facilities. He declared in a speech that they were completely destroyed, but Iran claimed they had already evacuated the sites and damage was minimal, signaling their intent to resist thoroughly.
イランのウラン濃縮率は６０％だが、そのレベルでも核兵器は作れるらしく、追い詰められたイランがエルサレムに向けて核を発射する可能性も残されている。Iran's uranium enrichment level stands at 60%, which, according to reports, is sufficient to produce nuclear weapons. There remains a possibility that a cornered Iran might launch a nuclear strike toward Jerusalem.
明日からの株価はSUNDAYDOWが示すように下落して始まる可能性が高いだろうが、毎週下落予測をしてきて、実際はさほど下がっていないのも事実。Although tomorrow’s stock market is likely to open lower, as indicated by the Sunday Dow, it's also true that despite weekly forecasts of declines, the market has not fallen much in reality.
トランプの新規政策、戦争など、突発的な暴落に対応するため、今後組み入れても、追加１／３程度で、総組み入れは最大２／３程度。To prepare for sudden market crashes triggered by new Trump policies or potential wars, even if I do resume buying, I plan to limit additional investments to about one-third, with total exposure capped at a maximum of two-thirds.
現状、総投資限度の１／３程度の配当重視（配当３％平均）のポジション。MUFG、SMFG、長谷工、三菱商事、村田製作所、トヨタ、金ＥＴＦ、他。Currently, dividend-focused positions (with an average dividend yield of 3%) account for about one-third of the total investment limit. Holdings include MUFG, SMFG, Haseko, Mitsubishi Corporation, Murata Manufacturing, Toyota, a gold ETF, and others.
トランプの新規政策、戦争など、突発的な暴落に対応するため、今後組み入れても、追加１／３程度で、総組み入れは最大２／３程度。To prepare for sudden market crashes triggered by new Trump policies or potential wars, even if I do resume buying, I plan to limit additional investments to about one-third, with total exposure capped at a maximum of two-thirds.
現状、総投資限度の１／３程度の配当重視（配当３％平均）のポジション。MUFG、SMFG、長谷工、三菱商事、村田製作所、トヨタ、金ＥＴＦ、他。Currently, dividend-focused positions (with an average dividend yield of 3%) account for about one-third of the total investment limit. Holdings include MUFG, SMFG, Haseko, Mitsubishi Corporation, Murata Manufacturing, Toyota, a gold ETF, and others.
日銀金利決定会合では利上げなしが大方の予想。
IMMは円買いに転換。IMM switched back to JPY buy.
海外勢は買いに転換。Foreign investors started to buy.
新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.
米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.
根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.
米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.
米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.
PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?
QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.
ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.
長谷工は下落トレンドから復帰。Haseko showed exit from down-trend.
米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY
米国株はサームルール発動により景気後退入りが確実となった。
今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.
中国株は反発するも未だ復活していない。不動産不況から始まるバブル崩壊はまだ始まったばかりかもしれない。Chinese stocks have rebounded but have yet to recover. The bursting of the bubble, starting with the real estate recession, might have only just begun.
NY株は景気後退のシグナルが其処ここに出ているのを無視して、パウエルの利下げとM7のみの好況を理由に上昇しているが、これがいつまでも続くわけはない。Despite various signs of an economic downturn, NY stocks are rising, driven by Powell's interest rate cuts and the strong performance of the M7 companies. However, this cannot continue indefinitely.
VIXは上昇。Vix has gone up.
中国株は反発するも未だ復活していない。不動産不況から始まるバブル崩壊はまだ始まったばかりかもしれない。Chinese stocks have rebounded but have yet to recover. The bursting of the bubble, starting with the real estate recession, might have only just begun.
NY株は景気後退のシグナルが其処ここに出ているのを無視して、パウエルの利下げとM7のみの好況を理由に上昇しているが、これがいつまでも続くわけはない。Despite various signs of an economic downturn, NY stocks are rising, driven by Powell's interest rate cuts and the strong performance of the M7 companies. However, this cannot continue indefinitely.
VIXは上昇。Vix has gone up.
FEAR＆GREEDはへ強欲へ FEAR＆GREED dived into greed.
FEAR＆GREEDはへ強欲へ FEAR＆GREED dived into greed.
米金利の今後 US FF rate forecast
１１月の利下げは０．２５％となりそうだ。
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米インフレの鎮静化は一時停止状態で、失業率は低下し、景気はまだ強く、インフレ圧力の復活の可能性も秘めているように見える。これがパウエルが利下げを早期に行えない原因。The pacification of US inflation remains suspended, and with a decrease in the unemployment rate and continued strong economy, there seems to be a possibility of a resurgence of inflation pressure. This is the reason why Powell cannot cut interest rates early.
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