AI 株価予測 20260710の状況 8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20260710
先週はハメネイ師の葬儀で2000万人がテヘランで追悼、反米への機運が高まった。その結果か、ホルムズ海峡航行船舶へのイランの攻撃が再開、米国は反撃、停戦は実質上キャンセルとなった模様。一方、原油価格はさほど上昇せず、ホルムズ海峡の動向には鈍感になった。半導体株を中心に、先週の急落のリバウンドがあった。ここから大上昇となる材料にも欠け、大暴落となるにはAI半導体銘柄の決算が良すぎる。来週以降、SPXなどが上場来高値を更新していけるかがポイント。AI関連のガイダンスに何らかの実質的な秋風が吹くまではジリ上げの展開を予想。Last week, 20 million people gathered in Tehran to mourn at Ayatollah Khamenei’s funeral, driving up anti-American sentiment. Likely as a result, Iran resumed its attacks on vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz, prompting U.S. retaliatory strikes and effectively canceling the ceasefire. Meanwhile, crude oil prices did not rise significantly, showing a lack of sensitivity to the situation in the Strait. Led by semiconductor stocks, the market saw a rebound from the previous week's sharp decline. While there is a lack of catalysts for a major rally from here, the earnings of AI semiconductor companies are simply too strong for a major crash to occur. Moving into next week and beyond, the key point is whether indices like the S&P 500 can continue to break new all-time highs. I expect the market to move gradually higher until some substantial "autumn chill" (signs of a slowdown) appears in AI-related guidance.
AIバブルの構造は、M7のポケットマネー（FreeCashFlow）から出たCapEX＝AI半導体銘柄（利益率8割）の利益、という構造が市場に理解されつつある。そして今、そのCapExが急減する可能性がある。これからは借り入れに頼らないとCapEXが継続できないからだ。The market is gradually coming to recognize the structure of the AI bubble: the M7 companies' capital expenditures, funded by their own free cash flow, are effectively being converted into profits for AI semiconductor companies with gross margins of around 80%. The concern now is that this CapEx could slow sharply, as maintaining current investment levels will increasingly require borrowing rather than internally generated cash flow.
AIエージェントの開発状況を見ていると、常時走らせていると思考のゴミがたまって暴走を始めるため、毎日その日の要点をまとめたファイルを外部に作り、それを翌日再立ち上げしたエージェントに再学習させなければいけない。その再学習で消費されるトークン課金が膨大でコストの壁も見えてきた模様。ロボットについてはスターンドアローンのマルチモーダルLLMを搭載した実用モデルがまだ出てこない状況。Looking at the current state of AI agent development, another challenge is becoming apparent. When agents are left running continuously, they tend to accumulate "cognitive clutter" over time, eventually leading to unstable or erratic behavior. As a result, developers often need to generate an external summary of each day's key information, then feed that summary back into a freshly initialized agent the following day. The token costs associated with this repeated re-ingestion and re-learning can become substantial, highlighting another potential economic constraint. As for robotics, practical standalone models equipped with fully multimodal LLMs have yet to emerge.
現状１／２強の枠利用率で強ポートフォリオ構成は次の通り。At present, more than half of my capital allocation is deployed. The portfolio is currently structured as follows:
リスクとしてあるのは次の３つ。There are three major risks:
１）データセンター電力不足 Data Center Power Shortages
現状、Ｍ７は１７０兆円の投資の内５０兆円しか実行できていない。それは電力が不足しているため発電所の建設が必須だから。建設には２－３年かかる。すると、半導体需要も一旦とん挫する。At present, the M7 companies have only been able to deploy about ¥50 trillion of their planned ¥170 trillion investment. The main constraint is electricity. Massive power generation projects are required before additional data centers can be brought online, and these facilities typically take two to three years to build. If power capacity becomes the bottleneck, semiconductor demand could temporarily stall.
２）ＡＩの性能の限界 The Performance Limits of AI
現状、ＡＩと言われているものは２０２２年１１月発表のＬＬＭの系統。ＬＬＭはアルトマンによる世紀の発見だが、なぜこれまでの性能が出るのかは未解明。その中で、現状いろいろなトライアルが行われ規模の拡大競争となっているが、これがＬＬＭの限界突破となるかは懐疑的。マルチモーダル、ロボット、エージェント、ＡＧＩなど、大きなブレークスルーがまだ必要だが、１－２年では実現できそうもない。ＲＯＩはそれを待ってくれず、ドットコムバブルのように一旦ＡＩバブルは崩壊する。Today's AI boom is fundamentally centered around the Large Language Model (LLM) family introduced in November 2022. LLMs represent a groundbreaking discovery by Altman and his team, yet the reasons behind their remarkable capabilities remain only partially understood. The industry is currently engaged in an intense scaling race, but it remains questionable whether simply increasing scale will be enough to overcome the limitations of LLMs. Major breakthroughs are still needed in areas such as multimodal AI, robotics, autonomous agents, and AGI. However, these advances do not appear likely to arrive within the next one or two years. Unfortunately, ROI calculations will not wait. Much like the dot-com bubble, the AI boom could eventually collapse before those breakthroughs materialize.
３）コモディティー化 Commoditization
DeepSeek、ファーウエイのAIチップなど、強引な規模の拡大路線や先行者利益は時間とともに剥落する。半導体メーカーの粗利益率８割は、本当は同じ値段で５倍のGPUが購入できたことを意味し、ユーザーは自前でのテンソル演算加速チップ開発を爆速で進めている。これにより利益率は減少していく。Developments such as DeepSeek and Huawei's AI chips demonstrate that aggressive scaling strategies and first-mover advantages tend to erode over time. Semiconductor companies currently enjoy gross margins approaching 80%, which effectively means that, under more competitive market conditions, customers could have purchased roughly five times as much GPU computing power for the same amount of money. In response, major users are rapidly accelerating the development of their own tensor-processing and AI acceleration chips. As alternative solutions emerge, industry profit margins are likely to decline.
暴落開始の合図Signals for the start of a crash
- AI投資のROIが莫大な投資の償却に見合わないことが露呈した場合、AIバブル崩壊の合図となるIf, it becomes exposed that the ROI of AI investment does not match the amortization of the enormous investment, it will be a signal of the collapse of the AI bubble.
- 米CREのLTV不足による満期集中年である今年での地銀の大量破綻A large number of regional bank failures this year, which is a year of concentrated maturities, due to insufficient LTV in US CRE.
- USTの$9tr償還不全による財政危機A fiscal crisis caused by failure to redeem $9 trillion in UST.
- AI投資のROIが莫大な投資の償却に見合わないことが露呈した場合、AIバブル崩壊の合図となるIf, it becomes exposed that the ROI of AI investment does not match the amortization of the enormous investment, it will be a signal of the collapse of the AI bubble.
- 米CREのLTV不足による満期集中年である今年での地銀の大量破綻A large number of regional bank failures this year, which is a year of concentrated maturities, due to insufficient LTV in US CRE.
- USTの$9tr償還不全による財政危機A fiscal crisis caused by failure to redeem $9 trillion in UST.
プラス面Positive factors- GDPNowが５．３％を示し、AI投資による景気押し上げ効果が出ている。Q2までは巨額のAI投資でインフラ構築業種の収益が高まる。GDPNow is showing 5.3%, indicating that AI investment is having a stimulative effect on the economy. Through Q2, massive AI-related investment is expected to boost earnings in infrastructure-building industries.
- AIを含め、米株収益はまだ落ち込んできてはいない。Despite concerns, U.S. corporate earnings—including AI-related sectors—have not yet deteriorated.
- UniTreeなど中国ロボットはBostonDynamicsを越えて成長しつつあり、AI、ロボットの爆発的な発展を予想させる。Chinese robotics companies such as Unitree are rapidly advancing and beginning to surpass Boston Dynamics, pointing to an explosive phase of growth in AI and robotics.
- トランプの対中国１００％関税は４月と同様TACOである。Trump’s proposed 100% tariff on China appears to be another TACO, as in April.
- パウエルは基本利下げ基調。Powell maintains a general easing bias.
- 過去の短期トレンドからは、まだもうひと上昇ある可能性。Based on past short term trends, another leg up in the market is still possible.
マイナス面Negative factors- Q2以降は最終消費者の不在が投資主体の損益に反映され始める。LLMによるAIバブルは2000年ITバブルの様に今だ投資ー収益がクローズしていない。データセンターを構築したものの、それに見合った収入がないということが明らかになる。AI 投資は循環取引を除く実質のROIが７％程度で、莫大な投資に見合った収益を上げることができないため、レバレッジの高いオラクルなどを筆頭に早晩行き詰る予想。From Q2 onward, the absence of end consumers will begin to be reflected in the profits and losses of investment-led players. The current AI boom driven by LLMs mirrors the 2000 IT bubble, with investments yet to translate into profits. It will become clear that data centers have been built without generating commensurate revenue. AI investment delivers a real ROI of around 7%, excluding circular transactions, which is insufficient to justify the enormous scale of capital投入. As a result, highly leveraged companies—led by Oracle—are expected to run into difficulties sooner rather than later.
- 著名アナリストの殆どが２０２６年の株高を予測しているため、下落が予想される。Because most prominent analysts are forecasting a stock market rally in 2026, a decline is expected.
- ２０２６年は２０２５年に引き続き９兆ドルの米国債満期（内４兆ドルは前年度からの短期のロール）となっており、新発債発行による金利上昇が懸念される。2026, following on from 2025, will see approximately $9 trillion in U.S. Treasury maturities, of which $4 trillion are short-term rollovers from the previous year, raising concerns that new debt issuance will push interest rates higher.
- CRE崩壊は米政権業界一体の隠ぺいによって金融不安の発生を防いでおり、内包された問題は全く解決されていない。特に２０２６年はCRE借換満期が集中しており、LTVの悪化による破綻が隠しきれずに顕在化する可能性が大きい。The collapse of the commercial real estate (CRE) sector has so far been concealed through coordinated efforts between the U.S. administration and the industry, preventing the emergence of broader financial instability. However, the underlying problems remain entirely unresolved. In particular, 2026 will see a concentration of CRE refinancing maturities, and as loan-to-value ratios deteriorate, the resulting failures are increasingly likely to surface and become impossible to conceal.
- 景気先行指標である黒人失業率が急上昇中である。The Black unemployment rate, a leading indicator of economic conditions, is rising sharply.
- 米株のバリュエーションは歴史的高水準にあるU.S. stock valuations remain at historically elevated levels.
- １９３０大恐慌からの対数トレンド上値抵抗線にタッチしているThe market is touching the upper resistance line of the logarithmic trend dating back to the Great Depression of the 1930s.
- 米株信用買い残は１兆ドルを超えてきている。逆回転が始まると止まらない。U.S. margin debt now exceeds $1 trillion; once the reversal begins, it may be unstoppable.
- バリュエーション、テクニカルの両面からいつ大暴落となっても不思議はないBoth valuation and technical indicators suggest that a major crash could occur at any time.
- 長短金利差はサームルールに抵触The yield curve inversion violates the Sahm Rule.
- インフレは目標２％より高く、GDPの強さも相まってパウエルは再度利上げするか、利下げを停止するかも。Inflation remains above the 2% target, and with GDP still strong, Powell may either halt rate cuts or even raise rates again.
- 2000年からの上昇は米債務の拡大に支えられており、持続不能なレベルになっているThe post-2000 market rise has been supported by an unsustainable expansion of U.S. debt.
これからはどこかで梯子を外されることを前提としたチキンレースに突入する。トレンド変換の時には素早くポジションを解消する。ただ、寄り付きで４０％下落のように、逃げ切れないほど早く下落した場合は、逆にポジションを１／３追加していきたい。From here, the market enters a game of chicken, assuming that the ladder will be pulled away at some point. Positions must be exited quickly when the trend reverses. However, if a sudden plunge occurs—such as a 40% drop right at the open, leaving no time to escape—I would rather add one-third more to my position.
テクニカル的には1930年からのトレンド上限に達し、また、バフェット指数その他のマクロ指数がバブルであることを示している。トランプの放任財政拡大により風船がさらに膨らむ状態で、なにかを切っ掛けに破裂を待っているのは明らか。On the technical side, the market has reached the upper limit of the trend line dating back to 1930, and macro indicators such as the Buffett Indicator are signaling a bubble. With Trump’s laissez-faire fiscal expansion further inflating the balloon, it is clear that the market is just waiting for some trigger to burst.
ただ、悪いシナリオとして、トランプのFRBへの利下げ要求、放漫財政が、さらなるバブルを引き起こす可能性も否定できない。そうなると、米国の金融風船は更に壊滅的な破裂まで突っ走ることになる。当面は１／３程度のリスクポジションを維持することで、万が一の上昇継続の場合にも対応できる。That said, a worse-case scenario cannot be ruled out: Trump’s pressure on the Fed for rate cuts and his reckless fiscal policies could trigger an even larger bubble. If that happens, the U.S. financial bubble could be headed for an even more devastating collapse. For the time being, maintaining a risk position of around one-third allows for flexibility in the event the market continues to rise unexpectedly.
プラス面Positive factors
- GDPNowが５．３％を示し、AI投資による景気押し上げ効果が出ている。Q2までは巨額のAI投資でインフラ構築業種の収益が高まる。GDPNow is showing 5.3%, indicating that AI investment is having a stimulative effect on the economy. Through Q2, massive AI-related investment is expected to boost earnings in infrastructure-building industries.
- AIを含め、米株収益はまだ落ち込んできてはいない。Despite concerns, U.S. corporate earnings—including AI-related sectors—have not yet deteriorated.
- UniTreeなど中国ロボットはBostonDynamicsを越えて成長しつつあり、AI、ロボットの爆発的な発展を予想させる。Chinese robotics companies such as Unitree are rapidly advancing and beginning to surpass Boston Dynamics, pointing to an explosive phase of growth in AI and robotics.
- トランプの対中国１００％関税は４月と同様TACOである。Trump’s proposed 100% tariff on China appears to be another TACO, as in April.
- パウエルは基本利下げ基調。Powell maintains a general easing bias.
- 過去の短期トレンドからは、まだもうひと上昇ある可能性。Based on past short term trends, another leg up in the market is still possible.
マイナス面Negative factors
- Q2以降は最終消費者の不在が投資主体の損益に反映され始める。LLMによるAIバブルは2000年ITバブルの様に今だ投資ー収益がクローズしていない。データセンターを構築したものの、それに見合った収入がないということが明らかになる。AI 投資は循環取引を除く実質のROIが７％程度で、莫大な投資に見合った収益を上げることができないため、レバレッジの高いオラクルなどを筆頭に早晩行き詰る予想。From Q2 onward, the absence of end consumers will begin to be reflected in the profits and losses of investment-led players. The current AI boom driven by LLMs mirrors the 2000 IT bubble, with investments yet to translate into profits. It will become clear that data centers have been built without generating commensurate revenue. AI investment delivers a real ROI of around 7%, excluding circular transactions, which is insufficient to justify the enormous scale of capital投入. As a result, highly leveraged companies—led by Oracle—are expected to run into difficulties sooner rather than later.
- 著名アナリストの殆どが２０２６年の株高を予測しているため、下落が予想される。Because most prominent analysts are forecasting a stock market rally in 2026, a decline is expected.
- ２０２６年は２０２５年に引き続き９兆ドルの米国債満期（内４兆ドルは前年度からの短期のロール）となっており、新発債発行による金利上昇が懸念される。2026, following on from 2025, will see approximately $9 trillion in U.S. Treasury maturities, of which $4 trillion are short-term rollovers from the previous year, raising concerns that new debt issuance will push interest rates higher.
- CRE崩壊は米政権業界一体の隠ぺいによって金融不安の発生を防いでおり、内包された問題は全く解決されていない。特に２０２６年はCRE借換満期が集中しており、LTVの悪化による破綻が隠しきれずに顕在化する可能性が大きい。The collapse of the commercial real estate (CRE) sector has so far been concealed through coordinated efforts between the U.S. administration and the industry, preventing the emergence of broader financial instability. However, the underlying problems remain entirely unresolved. In particular, 2026 will see a concentration of CRE refinancing maturities, and as loan-to-value ratios deteriorate, the resulting failures are increasingly likely to surface and become impossible to conceal.
- 景気先行指標である黒人失業率が急上昇中である。The Black unemployment rate, a leading indicator of economic conditions, is rising sharply.
- 米株のバリュエーションは歴史的高水準にあるU.S. stock valuations remain at historically elevated levels.
- １９３０大恐慌からの対数トレンド上値抵抗線にタッチしているThe market is touching the upper resistance line of the logarithmic trend dating back to the Great Depression of the 1930s.
- 米株信用買い残は１兆ドルを超えてきている。逆回転が始まると止まらない。U.S. margin debt now exceeds $1 trillion; once the reversal begins, it may be unstoppable.
- バリュエーション、テクニカルの両面からいつ大暴落となっても不思議はないBoth valuation and technical indicators suggest that a major crash could occur at any time.
- 長短金利差はサームルールに抵触The yield curve inversion violates the Sahm Rule.
- インフレは目標２％より高く、GDPの強さも相まってパウエルは再度利上げするか、利下げを停止するかも。Inflation remains above the 2% target, and with GDP still strong, Powell may either halt rate cuts or even raise rates again.
- 2000年からの上昇は米債務の拡大に支えられており、持続不能なレベルになっているThe post-2000 market rise has been supported by an unsustainable expansion of U.S. debt.
これからはどこかで梯子を外されることを前提としたチキンレースに突入する。トレンド変換の時には素早くポジションを解消する。ただ、寄り付きで４０％下落のように、逃げ切れないほど早く下落した場合は、逆にポジションを１／３追加していきたい。From here, the market enters a game of chicken, assuming that the ladder will be pulled away at some point. Positions must be exited quickly when the trend reverses. However, if a sudden plunge occurs—such as a 40% drop right at the open, leaving no time to escape—I would rather add one-third more to my position.
テクニカル的には1930年からのトレンド上限に達し、また、バフェット指数その他のマクロ指数がバブルであることを示している。トランプの放任財政拡大により風船がさらに膨らむ状態で、なにかを切っ掛けに破裂を待っているのは明らか。On the technical side, the market has reached the upper limit of the trend line dating back to 1930, and macro indicators such as the Buffett Indicator are signaling a bubble. With Trump’s laissez-faire fiscal expansion further inflating the balloon, it is clear that the market is just waiting for some trigger to burst.
ただ、悪いシナリオとして、トランプのFRBへの利下げ要求、放漫財政が、さらなるバブルを引き起こす可能性も否定できない。そうなると、米国の金融風船は更に壊滅的な破裂まで突っ走ることになる。当面は１／３程度のリスクポジションを維持することで、万が一の上昇継続の場合にも対応できる。That said, a worse-case scenario cannot be ruled out: Trump’s pressure on the Fed for rate cuts and his reckless fiscal policies could trigger an even larger bubble. If that happens, the U.S. financial bubble could be headed for an even more devastating collapse. For the time being, maintaining a risk position of around one-third allows for flexibility in the event the market continues to rise unexpectedly.
トランプの新規政策、戦争など、突発的な暴落に対応するため、今後組み入れても、追加１／３程度で、総組み入れは最大２／３程度。To prepare for sudden market crashes triggered by new Trump policies or potential wars, even if I do resume buying, I plan to limit additional investments to about one-third, with total exposure capped at a maximum of two-thirds.
トランプの新規政策、戦争など、突発的な暴落に対応するため、今後組み入れても、追加１／３程度で、総組み入れは最大２／３程度。To prepare for sudden market crashes triggered by new Trump policies or potential wars, even if I do resume buying, I plan to limit additional investments to about one-third, with total exposure capped at a maximum of two-thirds.
米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.
根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.
米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.
米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.
PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?
QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.
ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.
米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY
中国株は反発するも未だ復活していない。不動産不況から始まるバブル崩壊はまだ始まったばかりかもしれない。Chinese stocks have rebounded but have yet to recover. The bursting of the bubble, starting with the real estate recession, might have only just begun.
中国株は反発するも未だ復活していない。不動産不況から始まるバブル崩壊はまだ始まったばかりかもしれない。Chinese stocks have rebounded but have yet to recover. The bursting of the bubble, starting with the real estate recession, might have only just begun.
米金利の今後 US FF rate forecast
[今回予測20260710］Forecast at this time
[今回予測20260710］Forecast at this time
[前回予測20260703］Previous Forecast
[前回予測20260703］Previous Forecast
