AI 株価予測 20250314の状況
8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast -20250314

GDPNowがマイナス成長となり、ミシガン州消費者信頼感指数が急減、トランプが２０％近い過激な関税を設定するなど、景気後退の指標が強くなり、株価は急落したが、テクニカルな抵抗線にタッチし、株価は週末に向け反発。GDPNow turned negative, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted, and Trump imposed an aggressive tariff of nearly 20%, strengthening recessionary signals. As a result, stock prices plunged but rebounded toward the weekend after touching a technical resistance level.

一気に暴落していくことはなく、中間反騰を繰り返しながら株価は下落していくことを考えると、今週からの株価反騰はネックラインで反落する可能性も高い。Rather than a sudden crash, stock prices are likely to decline in a series of intermediate rebounds. Given this pattern, the stock market’s rebound this week has a high chance of reversing at the neckline.

現状、総投資限度の１／４程度の配当重視（配当３．１％平均）のポジション損益は、若干マイナス。MUFG（３．２１％）、長谷工（４．３１％）、三菱商事（４．０７％）、村田製作所（２．２９％）、トヨタ（３．２３％）、金ＥＴＦ、他。Currently, about one-fourth of the total investment limit is allocated to dividend-focused positions (average yield of 3.1%), but their performance is in the red a bit. Holdings include MUFG (3.21%), Haseko (4.31%), Mitsubishi Corporation (4.07%), Murata Manufacturing (2.29%), Toyota (3.23%), and a gold ETF, among others.

日銀金利決定会合では利上げなしが大方の予想。

IMMは円買いに転換。IMM switched back to JPY buy.

海外勢は売りが継続、個人が買う悪い展開に。Foreigh investors are selling while Japanese investors are buying. This is not a good pattern.

新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

現状日銀は７００兆円近くの国債を買い入れており、これは国債発行残高の６割近く。このうち６兆円が毎月満期になるため、月額６兆円を買い入れている。このため、月額買入を３兆円に減額すると１年間に３６兆円のQTとなる。全保有額を放出するには２０年近くかかるため、それまでは廃止したと言いながら継続しているYCCが続くことになる。これが国債が売られた背景。 Currently, the Bank of Japan holds nearly 700 trillion yen in government bonds, which is close to 60% of the total government bond issuance. Of this amount, 6 trillion yen matures every month, leading the BOJ to purchase 6 trillion yen monthly. Therefore, reducing the monthly purchases to 3 trillion yen results in a QT of 36 trillion yen annually. It would take nearly 20 years to completely unwind their holdings, so despite announcing the end of yield curve control (YCC), it effectively continues. This is why government bonds are being sold off. 

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

長谷工は下落トレンドから復帰。Haseko showed exit from down-trend.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

トランプはウクライナ問題の早期解決をプーチンと話し合う予定。ヨーロッパとウクライナは蚊帳の外。最悪の展開が待っている模様。Trump is going to talk Putin on the early resolution of Ukraine problem. Neither Europe nor Ukraine were invited. Worst case scenario is now expected. 

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY  US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

米国株はサームルール発動により景気後退入りが確実となった。

今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.

中国株は反発するも未だ復活していない。不動産不況から始まるバブル崩壊はまだ始まったばかりかもしれない。Chinese stocks have rebounded but have yet to recover. The bursting of the bubble, starting with the real estate recession, might have only just begun.

NY株は景気後退のシグナルが其処ここに出ているのを無視して、パウエルの利下げとM7のみの好況を理由に上昇しているが、これがいつまでも続くわけはない。Despite various signs of an economic downturn, NY stocks are rising, driven by Powell's interest rate cuts and the strong performance of the M7 companies. However, this cannot continue indefinitely.

VIXは上昇。Vix has gone up.

FEAR＆GREEDはへ強欲へ FEAR＆GREED dived into greed.

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

１１月の利下げは０．２５％となりそうだ。

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米インフレの鎮静化は一時停止状態で、失業率は低下し、景気はまだ強く、インフレ圧力の復活の可能性も秘めているように見える。これがパウエルが利下げを早期に行えない原因。The pacification of US inflation remains suspended, and with a decrease in the unemployment rate and continued strong economy, there seems to be a possibility of a resurgence of inflation pressure. This is the reason why Powell cannot cut interest rates early.

[今回予測20250314］Forecast at this time

[前回予測20250307］Previous Forecast 

Midterm Range

長期的には１年後をめどに暴落開始だが、それまでは上昇を続けるだろう。Long term forecast is negative expecting market crash after 1 year however, market may still going up until then.

MUFGの長期チャートを見ると、まだ伸びそうではある。By looking at the long term chart of MUFG, it looks MUFG still has room to grow.

 LLMと魂　LLM and soul

LLMは次の言葉を予測するだけで、いままでの文法解析、論理演繹、すべてを包括する言語エンジンとなってしまった。しかし、そこには魂があるのだろうか。LLMs have become all-encompassing language engines, merely predicting the next word yet surpassing traditional grammar parsing and logical deduction. But does a soul reside within them?

魂は彷徨う。LLMに、ランダムな攪乱因子を入れることで、魂は実現できるかもしれない。人間の魂はいろいろなことでぶれる、いろいろな思考に飛び入りし、遊ぶ。A soul wanders. Perhaps, by introducing random disturbance factors into an LLM, we could create a soul. The human soul wavers, jumps between different thoughts, and plays.

でも、LLMは当初からハルシネーションを伴う。このため、魂はすでに入っているのかも。However, LLMs have exhibited hallucinations from the very beginning. In that sense, perhaps the soul is already there.

それとも、体を付けて、自己を防衛する目標を与えることで魂ができるのだろうか？Or could a soul emerge by giving them a body and a goal of self-preservation?

論理的に文法から積み上げた、何をやっているか人間が把握できる旧来型の言語AIと比べ、LLMは人類史に残る大発見である反面、その発見の本質はいまだ解明されていない。Compared to traditional language AIs, which build upon grammar in a logically transparent way that humans can grasp, LLMs are a groundbreaking discovery in human history. Yet, the essence of this discovery remains unexplained.

これが、LLMを危険と見なす人たちの根拠。本当に危険かもしれないと思うと少しゾッとする。This is the basis for those who see LLMs as dangerous. The thought that they might truly be a threat sends a slight shiver down my spine.