AI 株価予測 20220225の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220225 Status 8306MUFG

 AI 株価予測 20220225の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220225　Status 8306MUFG

AI予測は反発。AI forecast is rebound.

トレード詳細はこちら。結果的に週末で限度枠1/4保有（A）。Trade details is here. As a result, I hold 1/4 of limit at the point of weekend. 

ウクライナ情勢は見通しが立たないものの、プーチンの誤算も見えてきた。Ukraine situation is hard to predict however, Putin's miscalculation became more distinct last week. 

１）ゼレンスキー大統領は失脚するどころか、ウクライナ防衛のシンボルとなった。President Zelensky became a hero of Ukraine defense, far from initial Putin's expectation of early fall out in the very beginning. 

２）首都キエフは１日で陥落するはずが、３日たっても実現できていない。Kiev did not fall down even on 3rd day unlike initial Putin's expectation of one day job. 

３）口座凍結、スイフトからの削除などの経済制裁は想定以上 Economic sanctions such as account freezing, deletion from SWIFT have more serious impacts than expected.

４）侵攻をやめれば国内に弱腰を見せることになり、侵略を続ければ経済破綻が間近となる、どちらへも動けない蟻地獄に入ってしまった Putin cornered himself in a quick sand situation, where he ends up showing weakness domestically if stops invasion, meanwhile economy will collapse if he keeps invasion. 

米銀行株は底を形成しつつあり、今週あと、限度枠の1/4程はタイミング見て足していっても良いかもしれない。Nevertheless US bank stocks look creating the bottom, hence I may make another 1/4 limit investment taking timing.

１０年金利　Interest Rate10Yr

[今回予測20220225］Forecast at this time 

[前回予測20220218］Previous Forecast 

3LB Month/Week/Day

Midterm Range

AI 株価予測 20220218の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220218 Status 8306MUFG

 AI 株価予測 20220218の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220218　Status 8306MUFG

AI予測は反発。AI forecast is rebound.

15日水曜日に限度枠1/4を購入したが米銀の弱さを考慮し16日に売却。金曜日にレベルB近辺まで下落してきたため再度限度枠の1/4だけ参入。月曜からは下落のレベルに合わせて残りの3/4を投入予定。I put in 1/4 of limit on Wed 15th however, seeing the weakness of US bank stocks, I sold next day 16th. On Friday, I bought for 1/4 since price came down around level B. From next Monday, I will put in the rest 3/4 as price keeps going down. 

世界の株式指標は下落基調、米国銀行も軒並み下落したがチャート的には底は近い感じではある。来週のウクライナ情勢の落ち着きを待って、再上昇が始まると思われる。Global equity index is on downtrend. US bank stocks all went down however some looks close to the bottom from chart. Next week, they may rebound as Ukraine situation calms down.

ウクライナ情勢は情報戦の真っただ中。米国はクリミアの時のように、ロシアはウクライナの内部崩壊を計画していると言い、ロシアは全面的に攻め入ることは無いと言う。クリミア併合時には、クリミア内の親ロシア派によるデモ、停電、通信遮断、国家施設占拠の手順が取られたようで、同様の手口でウクライナがロシアに併合されるかが焦点だ。Ukraine is in the middle of information war. US claims that, just like Crimea merger time, Russia is setting up internal collapse of Ukraine. Meanwhile Russia says it will not make total attack against Ukraine. At the time of Crimea merger, pro Russian group made demonstration, followed by power shutdown, communication shutdown followed by occupation of major government facilities. I need to watch if same approach will be taken to merge Ukraine as part of Russia. 

金利は2%を付けたあとは、いったん調整。パウエルは14日に緊急FOMCを招集したものの、CPIの高止まりを受けた利上げ前倒しなどはウクライナ情勢もあり行われていない。ただ、３月からのQE終了、利上げ、QT開始には揺るぎは無いと思われる。Interest rate touched 2% once and now coming down a bit.  Powell invited emergency FOMC on 14th facing the CPI release to be a bit higher than the forecast however, probably due to the Ukraine situation, no action has been taken so far. Nevertheless, there will be no change of plan for the termination of QE from March, followed by interest rate hike as well as start of QT.

１０年金利　Interest Rate10Yr

[今回予測20220218］Forecast at this time 

[前回予測20220210］Previous Forecast 

3LB Month/Week/Day

Midterm Range

AI 株価予測 20220210の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220210 Status 8306MUFG

 AI 株価予測 20220210の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220210　Status 8306MUFG

月曜寄り付きに限度枠全部を投入、予測通り上昇したものの、水曜日にトレンドから外れたため、木曜日の引けで全額売却。金曜日に予測を上回るCPI発表があったものの、ウクライナ情勢の緊迫によるダウ暴落もあり、米銀行株は反落。I bought MUFG for whole trading limit on Monday opening and MUFG rose as expected however, I sold all on Thursday closing since it deviated from short term uprising trend.  Over forecast CPI number was released on Friday however, due to Ukraine situation, NY Dow collapsed followed by US bank stocks.

CPI高騰を受け、明日月曜日にはFOMCの緊急非公開会議がある。ウクライナ情勢が無ければ早期利上げとなったかもしれないが、情勢を考慮して早期利上げは落ち着いた後となるかもしれない。その場合、金利は反落、銀行株もいったん調整となる可能性もある。Facing CPI number rise, FOMC closed emergency meeting will be held on Monday tomorrow. If there is no Ukraine issues, the conclusion maybe early lifting of interest rate however, considering Ukraine situation, interest rate hike can be after the settlement of the military confrontation. In that case, interest rate may drop once more followed by the correction of banks stocks for a moment. 

調整が始まった場合、図のA、B、Cで１／３づつ買うことも考えられる。Once correction starts, I may buy for 1/3 each at point A, B, C in the above chart. 

１０年金利　Interest Rate10Yr

[今回予測20220210］Forecast at this time 

日足、週足ともに上昇継続を予測。Both daily and weekly suggests continued rise.

[前回予測20220204］Previous Forecast 

3LB Month/Week/Day

Midterm Range

AI 株価予測 20220204の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220204 Status 8306MUFG

 AI 株価予測 20220204の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220204　Status 8306MUFG

前回の高値を超えたので、短期ポジションは木、金と、持ち高を１／３ずつ減らし、現在１／３だけ入っている状態にあるが、雇用統計発表を受けた週末の金利高と、米銀行株の反発を見て入りなおすかどうか検討中。Price came back to previous high, hence sold 1/3 each on Thursday and Friday and holding only 1/3 now for short term trading position however, currently considering whether to get in once more by seeing US bank stock rebound as well as interest rate hike triggered by job report released.

米国債10年金利はあきらかに上昇中。US Treasury 10Yr Interest rate started to pick up.

長期チャートからもレンジの動きが明確に見える。Long term chart suggests distinct range.

そして、サマーズも金利爆上げ開始の予測。Summers hinted interest rate burst as well.

米銀行株も上昇開始。US bank stocks started to rise.

状況的には買うしかない状態のようだ。Looks like now I have no option but buy.

１０年金利　Interest Rate10Yr

[今回予測20220204］Forecast at this time 

日足、週足ともに上昇継続を予測。Both daily and weekly suggests continued rise.

[前回予測20220121］Previous Forecast 

3LB Month/Week/Day

Midterm Range