レンジトレード20210820
Range Trade20210820
下落レンジからの脱却後、上昇レンジの最初のレンジ下限のポイントに達したため、短期的な小規模のトレードを行うことにした。Done small size short term trade since price became close to the lower bound of upward range, for the 1st time since market switched from downward range to upward range.
米国はテーパリングの年内開始の報道があり、金利も更なる低下は難しい状況だ。また、新値AIの微増予測からも、567の下限をブレークして新値を更新する可能性は少ないだろう。US is reported to start tapering within the year, hence it is hard to expect further rate cut. Also, AI forecasted slight increase, hence it is not likely that market breaks downward beyond 567 to revise 3LB.
このため再度下落レンジに戻る確率は低いと判断。I concluded that the chance is not high that market will go back to downward range once more.
[追記20210830Added]
上昇トレンドの下限を切ったため、一旦売却。Sold for now, since it broke lower range of upward trend.
[追記20210902Added]
トレンドに復帰したため、いったん下がったところで再度購入。ただ、８月末からの上昇の源泉は日経２２５先物なので、短期を超える上昇継続は疑問。ただ長期的には金利上昇もあり問題ないだろう。Since price came back to the upward range trend, purchased once more after 1st drop after the rise. However, due to the nature of rise that mostly came from NK225 Future, the sustainability of upward trend is questionable. However, for a long run, there is no problem due to interest rate hike expected.
ウエッジ上端に達し、一気に突き抜けなかったため、前場中盤に売却。明確に突き抜ければ再度参入。また、後場窓を埋めれば買うかも。Sold in the middle of morning session, since price did not rapidly break through the upper range of wedge. If there is any break through going forward, will get in once more. Also, if goes down filling the window, may buy once more.
[追記20210907 Added]
しかし、買った後に、ショートの仕掛けが入って荒れた。Intraday was rough due to short trap done as below. This was after I bought in the morning.
現状の上げは、NK225連動であるので、NK225の日中を見ると荒れていない。ということは、MUFGの荒れはMUFGを狙ったものであることが分かる。日中の売買高が少ないことから売り崩しと買い戻しも少額の資金で容易なのだろう。Current MUFG is moving along with NK225, hence calm NK225 move during the day proves that MUFG's rough move of today was the intentional short manipulation. Probably the low intraday liquidity of MUFG is making this kind of manipulation possible, only by small amount of fund in hand.
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[追記20210914 Added]
ウエッジを上方に抜けたため再度参入。Got in once more since price broke upward the wedge range.
日経平均は明らかに下降レンジから脱却している。NK225 obviously did exit from downward range.
その日は最終的にウエッジの外で引けた。The day closed outside of the wedge.
年初の高値付近抵抗ライン６３５円付近で一旦売却。理由は不明だが、MUFGだけがメガバンクの中で突出して続伸した。またチャンスを捉えて参入したい。Sold for now, close to the resistance created at around the beginning of year, that is 635. Not sure about the reason but only MUFG advanced among the other Japanese mega banks. Wish to get in taking another chance.
MUFGの突出は解消されたため、上昇基調は継続していると想定して、１／３を再度参入。Got into position taking once more assuming that upward trend is still valid. Note that overprice of MUFG is now settled.
嵐の前の静けさか、日本株は微上昇。一旦売却。Tranquil before the storm coming. Japan stock went up slightly. Sold for now.
嵐は結局月曜には起きず、NYダウは反発。MUFGのADRも上昇しているため、レンジ切り上げとみて参入。Storm did not occur after all on Monday due to rebound of NY Dow as well as ADR of MUFG. Got into position taking once more taking this phase as range revision to next level.
[追記20210917 Added]
17日に640.6で売り。上昇レンジの上値抵抗線で跳ね返された。Sold on 17th at 640.6. Bounced down at the upper resistance of upward range trend.
[追記20210924 Added]
661.5で購入。FOMCは11月テーパリング開始、恒大グループは利払い継続となり、安心感からNYは急上昇、リスクオン継続、日経も上昇。銀行株は中期上昇トレンド上値レンジに向かう短期上昇レンジに回帰。Bought once more at 661.5. FOMC stated start of tapering in Nov, Evergrande may resume coupon payment, these news made NY relieved to resume risk-on rocket high. Nikkei also has gone up. Bank came back on to the short term upper trend targeting upper range of middle term upward range trend.
[追記20210927 Added]
レンジ上昇タッチで、676.7で売却。また、下限に戻ってきたところで購入予定。Sold 676.7 since price touched the upper bound of upward trend range. Will buy once more when it come back to lower bound.
[追記20210928 Added]
ADRが続伸、UST10Yrも続伸、配当基準日であったが、寄り付きがADRよりかなり低かったので参入。レンジからは逸脱し、最終配当権利日で、かつNYも怪しいので、引け成りで売却した。ADR advanced last night as well as UST10Yr and also today is coupon right day however, opening is much lower than ADR, hence I got in once more. This is outside of the bound, last coupon right date, and NY looks collapsing, hence sold at closing today.
[追記20210929 Added]
NYは600ドル近い下げ、日経は配当権利落ちで大きく下げ、MUFGのADRも下がっているが、金利はテーパリング開始を反映して急上昇。上昇レンジは継続中と判断し、上昇レンジ下限で管理枠の１／３購入。上昇レンジが崩れた場合は、残り２／３を中期上昇レンジの中間、下限まで待って順次投入予定。NY dropped over $600 as well as NK225 since it just passed dividend day. MUFG's ADR dropped significant. However interest rate is going up fast reflecting the start of the tapering. I judged that upward range trend is still continuing, then bought 1/3 of trade limit at the lower end. If the trend collapses, will buy the rest 2/3 once it hit the middle or bottom range of middle term upward trend.
[追記20211028 Added]
金利低下もあって、過去の中期上昇レンジの下限に窓を空けて達したために１／３購入。残りの１／３はレンジの下限抵抗線が破られた場合に発動予定。Facing interest rate down, price reached lower resistance of middle term upper range trend. Hence I bought another 1/3 of trading limit. The rest 1/3 will be purchased once it broke lower resistance of upward trend.
新値も更新され、AI予測を走らせると、更なる大幅な下落を示唆。3LB was revised and AI forecasted further big drop.
衆院選選挙を月末に控え、相場は平行線。Market now has no direction waiting for the result of house of representatives election.
[追記20211109 Added]
金利は上昇したので、ADRは上昇したが、TSEは下落し、再び上昇トレンド下限にタッチしたので残りの１／３を投入した。現時点での利回り4.2%。Interest rate has rebounded and ADR advanced however, TSE dropped and touched the lower bound of midterm upward trend. Hence put in the remaining 1/3 of trading limit. Current dividend yield is 4.2%.
状況としては、Situation is,
・下値抵抗線は2020年10月から５回反発し、今回６回目。The rebound at the lower bound will be the 6th time since Oct 2020 if it happens.
・FRBはテーパリングを開始。緩やかな金利上昇は始まる。ただ、短期債から始まるため、長期債下落への当初の過度な期待が剝げ落ちた。FRB started tapering. Slow interest rate increase is going to happen. Since tapering starts from short term bonds, initial excessive expectation to the long term bond sell has gone.
・パウエルは金利を急上昇させることで、バブルを懲罰的に破裂させることはしない。インフレは一時的なものと再強調している。Powell will not initiate punitive bubble burst by the sudden increase of the interest rate. He restressed that inflation is temporary.
[追記20220114 Added]
新年になって、FRBのQTに伴うUST10金利の上げにより、銀行株が上昇を開始した。２週間ほどした議会証言でパウエルが玉虫色の答弁をしたことから、金利の上昇は一服した。バンカメ、モルスタなどの米銀行株の上昇も止まった。Entering new year, bank stocks started to rise as UST10 interest rate rise as anticipation of QT by FRB grew. Two weeks later Powell testified in congress hinting the moderate implementation of QT while taking good care of economic growth. Market took this message as a bit dovish, holding further progress of interest rate hike. The rise of US banks stocks such as Bank of America, Morgan Stanley had stopped.
MUFGは米銀株の上昇と全く同じ動きをしており、同じカテゴリーの投資対象とされている様子だ。As MUFG stock's move is in sync to US bank stocks, it looks MUFG is a part of same universe of investment.
このため短期上昇トレンドから外れるだろうと予測し、2022/1/14（金）の寄り付きで、トレード枠をすべて売却。長期ポジションのMUFGは温存した。Considering all, I concluded that MUFG may drop from short term upward trend below, hence sold all trading position build while kept long term holding position.
その後、株価は予測通り短期上昇トレンドから外れ若干調整した。来週以降、動向を見て再度参入したい。Later, stock price dropped from short term upward trend as expected. I will take new position from next week as chance comes.
[追記20220119 Added]
17日の寄り付き直後、MUFGは鋭角的に上昇。Right after the opening of 2022/01/17, MUFG rose sharply.
外銀の下落にかかわらずMUFGが上昇を続け、米国10年利回りも増加を続けることから更に上昇を続けると判断、乗り遅れることを懸念して、短期枠の1/3を、続いて残りの2/3も投入。MUFG kept rising irrespective of collapse of foreign banks. So I invested 1/3 of trading limit first, then 2/3, to catch up with the market since I judged that bank stock will keep rising due to the UST10yr interest rates that keeps rising aggressive recently.
現状調整が始まっているが、金利高は継続するため、早晩反転すると考える。このため、このまま放置する。Currently correction already started however, I think it will rebound back soon since interest rate hike will keep going. Hence I will leave this position as this is.
結果、ピークでつかまってしまったわけで、反省点としては寄り付きの急騰とともに信用残が増加していることに気づいていたが無視したこと。トレード枠を一気に使い切ったことなど、最近の好調な銀行株相場に、脇が甘くなったと同時に強欲になったことがある。Nevertheless, I have to accept that I got caught at the peak of the market, so I should regret that I ignored the rise of margin purchase amount as price has gone up rapidly since the market opening. I also should regret that I used all my limit all at once. Looks I became too greedy and reckless due to the recent gain from rising bank stock prices.
勝って兜の緒を締めよという事だ。Takeaway is 'Win and tighten the helmet'.
[追記20220203 Added]
その後、Q3決算日前日に、信用買いで急騰。決算は予想通りでサプライズなし。前日ADRは高かったものの、米金利、米銀行株共にマイナス。寄り付き後急落するも回復したので、トレード枠の１／３を売却、下落に備えた。Later on, one day before the Q3 result announcement, price jumped due to margin buy. Results was on line to the expectation without surprise. ADR of previous day was high but US interest rate as well as US bank stocks were low. Price went down sharp after opening but recovered, hence I sold 1/3 of trading limit to be ready for another fall if happens.
決算を見ると4000億円増収。For results,
・業務増収はプラス2000億円 Operating profit was plus JPY200bn.
・トレーディング（債券売買、デリバティブトレード）はマイナス2000億円 Trading(securities and derivatives) was minus JPY200bn.
・倒産リスク低減引当金の戻しはプラス3000億円 Reversal of default write off provision of JPY300bn
・持ち株はプラス1000億円 Holding stock's appreciation for JPY100bn
・モルスタ利益は900億円 Morgan Stanley's participation was JPY90bn
来季から倒産リスク軽減引当金戻しは減少。金利上昇により通常業務は増収か。本体のトレーディングロス2000億円は改善余地あり。From next yr, provision reversal will be gone but operating income may increase due to interest rate hike. Need improvement on trading loss of JPY200bn though.
[追記20220204 Added]
長期金利上昇も足踏み、NY、NASDAQ、米銀行株は急落した。MUFGは僅かに上昇したが、急激な上昇トレンドから、一旦、中期上昇トレンドの下限を目指すと予想し、トレード枠の１／３を売却、トレード枠の利用率は１／３となった。Rapid advance of long term US interest rate looks stopped. While NY, NASDAQ as well as US bank stocks dropped. MUFG went up a bit but it can once again drop lower bound of upward middle term trend due to rapid uptrend for the last few days. Hence I sold another 1/3 of trading limit to leave only 1/3 outright position.
[追記20220207 Added]
雇用統計を受けたUST10金利の急騰を受け、米銀行株も急騰。サマーズを始め利上げ、QTやむなしとの声が高まったのを受けて、再度参入を決定。のこり２／３を投入。ただ、前回に続き今回も寄り付きの信用で売り崩される結果となったのが反省点。多少ロスが出ても、分割は徹底すべきだ。ただ、今後の大勢に影響はない。Facing UST10 interest rate surge due to job report, US bank stocks rose sharply. Decided to jump in seeing the majority view, including Summers, that QT as well as rate hike is inevitable. Put the rest 2/3 in position. I regret that just like previous time, I got caught by the opening high due to opening margin trading that was sold down later. Even if I give up some opportunity cost, I should split the trades absolutely. Nevertheless no major impact for the whole story though.
[追記20220210 Added]
週明け予測通り上昇したが、水曜日に短期上昇トレンドから外れ始め、本日木曜日、週末に完全に短期トレンドから離脱した。MUFG has gone up as expected early this week however, it started to go deviate from short term upward trend on Wednesday, the today on Thursday, the weekend, it totally deviated from short term upward trend.
このため、一旦、引け成りでトレーディング枠全部を撤退。Hence sold all of trading position at closing for a moment.
来週以降、下値抵抗線A、B、Cで買っていくか、上昇すればそのまま追従する。From next week, will buy at lower resistance line A, B or C, or just trend-follow if going up.
現状、銀行株上昇の原動力となる米国の利上げは市場で消化されていない。利上げなどできるはずがないと公言する市場関係者も多い。市場参加者が真に理解するには、実際に利上げが始まるまで待たなければいけないかもしれない。At this moment, the interest rate hike, that is the driver of bank stock rise, is not well digested by the market. Still many market participants publicly saying that rate hike is not possible, etc. May need to wait for the actual rate hike executed for market participants to really understand the situation.
このため、一本調子の上昇はなさそうな気もするが、柔軟に対応していきたい。Hence, straight up rise of MUFG may be unlikely but wish to handle with flexibility.
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週明け１４日、NYはCPI上方修正を受けた緊急FOMCにより、金利は上昇したものの、ウクライナ情勢もあってか銀行株は下落、ところがMUFGのADRは大きく上昇した。Opening of week 14th NY market, interest rate went up triggered by emergency FOMC meeting due to CPI upward adjustment however, bank stocks went down probably due to Ukraine situation. But MUFG stock's ADR jumped high against such US trend.
動きがちぐはぐで、同時にすでに短期上昇トレンドからはずれていることから、明確なトレンドが出てから参入しようと考えた。Such MUFG's move was not really logical and also price position is clearly out of short term upward trend. Hence I decided to enter once I see some clear trend.
その後、相場は下落し、最初の買いポイント（A）に近づいたため限度枠の１／４を投入した。明日以降、ポイント（B）（C）に到達次第、順次買い増していく予定。Later price went down to initial buy point (A), hence purchased 1/4 of trading limit. From tomorrow, as price goes down to level (B), (C), I will buy the rest of trading limit.
銀行株全体の金利上昇局面での株価上昇は今後も継続すると考えられ、（C）をもしブレークした場合は、放置して回復を待つ。ただ、５００円近辺まで大きく下回ってきた場合は、長期保有ポジションを増やす予定。I foresee that bank stocks will keep rising during the phase of interest rate hike, hence even if price goes down below level (C), I will just leave it however, once price came down further drastically even around 500, then I will consider to increase long term holding position.
[追記20220216 Added]
翌日、戻したものの、米銀行株の戻りが非常に弱かったため、一旦売却。トレードポジションはゼロとした。FOMC議事録発表、ウクライナの進展を待ちたい。Next day, although price showed rebound, US bank stock's rebound was very weak. Hence sold all current trading position. Will wait for next move depending on the release of FOMC meeting minutes as well as the progress of Ukraine conflict.
[追記20220218 Added]
ウクライナ情勢を受けて米株下落は継続、MUFGも下落した。予定通り、Bの付近で限度枠の１／４を投入。Facing Ukraine situation, US stocks kept going down. MUFG went down as well. Put in 1/4 of limit as planned around point B.
[追記20220225 Added]
情勢の不穏と米銀株の続落、米金利の下落を見て、18日購入の限度枠1/4分のポジションは週明け21日の急騰直後に売却。その後、ロシアは本当にウクライナへの侵略を開始し、首都キエフまで迫る事態となった。25日に再度購入したが弱いので直ぐに売却。さらに下落したため、引け寄りで1/4購入した。Seeing the instability of Ukraine situation as well as the fall of US bank stocks and US interest rates last weekend, immediately after the sharp rise on Monday, I sold 1/4-limit-position which I bought on last Friday. Later, Russia actually invaded Ukraine even up to capital Kiev. Market fell once more but with bottoming of US bank stocks as well as rise of US interest rate, hence I bought once more after short fall but sold immediate since market still looks weak and have room for further bottom. Market went down once more hence I bought at closing price for 1/4 of trading limit position once more.
[追記20220302 Added]
寄り付き後でトレード枠の１／４を買い、690円近辺ですべて売却。その後は様子見。Bought 1/4 of trading limit shortly after opening and sold all at around 690. Held trade for the rest of the day.
AI予測は更なる下落を予測。600を切ることがあれば、長期保有ポジションの追加を考える。それまでは短期トレーディングに徹する。Forecast still predicts further down. Further long term holding position can be considered once price goes down below 600. Up until then, I will focus on short term trading only.
[追記20220303 Added]
米株指標、米銀行株、ADRが上昇であった。このため、レンジ中盤690円特買でトレード枠1/4分だけ注文したがレンジ上限700円で寄り付いてしまったため、１円安で売却。US stock index, US bank stocks as well as ADR was up last night. Hence I put order around 690, that is the middle of downward range, at opening. However, I sold all immediate 1 yen lower since actual start was 700, that is the upper range of downward range trend.
下降レンジトレンド離脱、もしくは下降レンジトレンド下限タッチを待って次のトレードを始める。I need to confirm if price exit from downward range trend or goes down the lower range of downward range trend, to enter the position once more.
[追記20220308 Added]
前場、下降レンジ下限で1/4買い、反発後即時売却。後場、660で1/4買った。現状、トレードポジションは限度枠1/4。Purchased 1/4 of trading limit at the lower bound of downward range trend in the morning session, then sold when saw rebound. In the afternoon session, bought at 660 for 1/4 of trading limit. Current holding is 1/4 of trading limit.
本日終値は中期トレンドの下限に当たり、明日以降これ以下に下落すると、中期トレンドは一旦終了。その場合、短期トレードとしてはAライン600円までは中期トレンドへの回帰を期待して、買い下がり、それ以降はBライン、Cラインまで待って、長期ポジションを追加する。Today's closing is right on the lower bound of midterm upward range trend however, if drop continues tomorrow further down, midterm upward range trend will end for now. In that case, will keep buying until price hit line A of 600 as short term trading expecting the reversion back to the midterm trend. Below that level, wait until price goes down to B line or C line to add long term holding position.
現状、ロシアのウクライナ侵略は事態が好転する気配がない。西側は化石燃料の購入停止を経済制裁の視野に入れた。過剰なコロナ経済対策によるインフレより激しいインフレが到来しそうだ。政策金利を操作しなくても金利は自動的に上がってきそうな気配もある。Currently there is no sign of improvement for Russian invasion to Ukraine. Western countries is planning to cut down oil/gas import as part of economic sanctions. Intense inflation far more than the one due to excessive Covid-19 economic aid looks coming. Interest rate may go up automatic even without policy rate management.
[追記20220309 Added]
前日NYの銀行株はまちまちだった。またADRも666と冴えなかった。前場の寄高を予測し、早めに662近辺でトレード枠利用分1/4を売却。その後、684まで上がる反発だった。NY bank stocks of previous day were up and downs. ADR was only around 666. Hence I expected morning high and sold at 662, that is all of outstanding trading position using 1/4 of limit. Later, MUFG even rebounded up to 684.
ゼレンスキー大統領はいよいよ追い詰められ、見ていられない見殺し状況が続く。経済制裁は原油が加わり、資源高は激しさを増している。今後、西側からの武器供与がどの程度実際に前線に行き渡るかが焦点だろう。President Zelensky is really cornered and all lament his pathetic situation with little help in the middle of Russian invasion. Economic sanction now includes oil and natural resource inflation is really taking off. From now, need to focus how well the weapon supply from west will be actually procured and implemented to front line.
テクニカルには中期トレンド下限で反発し、下降レンジ上限で止められたが、75日線は若干上回った。明日以降下降レンジから脱却が明確になった時点で参入予定。From technical chart point of view, MUFG bounced back at the lower end of middle term upward range trend and stopped at the upper range of short term downward trend. Nevertheless it is now slightly above the 75day average. Once the exit from the short term downward trend become clear, I will jump in once more.
[追記20220315 Added]
本日復帰し、短期レンジでの上昇余地はまだあると見て寄り付きでトレード枠1/4購入。Came back on trading today. Saw further chance for short term trading. Hence bought 1/4 of trading limit at opening.
[追記20220317 Added]
寄り付きでトレード枠3/4購入、その後、トレード枠全て売却、最後に引け値で1/4購入。Bought 3/4 of trading limit at opening, then sold all trading position. Bought 1/4 of trading limit at closing.
[追記20220318 Added]
３連休前で、全数売却。Sold all trading due to long weekend.
[追記20220322 Added]
トレンドレンジを逸脱したため、長期保有も全て売却。トレンド下限で入り直す予定。Sold even long term holding position due to deviation from upper bound of upward trend. Will get in once more once hit the lower end of upward range trend.
[追記20220324 Added]
天井圏を示すろうそく足の後、果たして下落となった。AI予測は続伸だった。ただ、金利は若干下落、米銀行株も下落だった。After showing the candle indicating the fall, market actually fell as in below screen shot. AI forecast showed continued up. However interest rate, as well as US bank stocks went down a bit.
明日上昇トレンドに回帰するか、下落トレンドに入るかの正念場。Tomorrow is a big time to decide whether MUFG keeps rising or going down off track.
トレード枠の１／４だけ購入。Purchased 1/4 of short term trading limit.
[追記20220330 Added]
寄り付きの５円だけ、日計りで１／４限度枠で買い、売り。その後、最初のレベル775まで下落したため、で１／４限度枠を買う。ポジションは都合１／２限度枠。長期ポジションは無し。Took JPY5 intraday trading for 1/4 limit. Later, bought at 775 that is the 1st level. Total position is now 1/2 limit. No long term holding position.
[追記20220411 Added]
下降レンジから抜けたためトレーディング枠の１／４を購入。都合、ポジション総計３／４。MUFG did exit out of downward range. Purchased 1/4 of trading limit. Total holding is 3/4 of trading limit.
[追記20220413 Added]
上昇レンジから抜けたためトレーディング枠の１／４を売却。都合、ポジション総計２／４。MUFG did exit out of upward range. Sold 1/4 of trading limit. Total holding is 2/4 of trading limit.
[追記20220419 Added]
トレンドＢに乗ったと思われるためトレーディング枠の１／４を購入。都合、ポジション総計３／４。MUFG looks started to be on upward range. Bought 1/4 of trading limit. Total holding is 3/4 of trading limit.
[追記20220420 Added]
米国金利上昇、米銀行株上昇トレンド復帰がみられるため、さらにトレーディング枠の１／４を購入。都合、ポジション総計４／４。UST10 as well as US bank stocks look resumed uptrend. Bought 1/4 of trading limit. Total holding is 4/4 of trading limit.
[追記20220421 Added]
結局、上昇シナリオに疑問を感じたため、トレーディング枠の２／４を売却。都合、ポジション総計２／４。朝方追加の１／４を更に枠を超えて追加したが、午後に退却。その後、既存ポジションもさらに売却した。ウクライナ情勢が最終決戦に向けて激化、５月９日までは激動の局面に移行しそうだ。After all, I felt doubt on rising scenario. Then sold 2/4 of trading limit. Current net holding position is 2/4. Note that I added another 1/4 in the morning exceeding limit but sold in the evening. Later, I also sold existing position. I expect Ukraine situation will go harsher toward May 9th facing last Russian offensive.
[追記20220510 Added]
中期トレンド抵抗線に到達。トレーディング枠1/4購入。都合3/4。Reached down to the mid term upward trend resistance. Bought 1/4 of trading limit. Total 3/4 limit utilization.
[追記20220511 Added]
長期下降トレンド抵抗線に到達。トレーディング枠1/4購入。都合4/4。窓を開けた三段下げは過去短期で終了している。Reached down to the mid term downward trend resistance. Bought 1/4 of trading limit. Total 4/4 limit utilization. Note that three consecutive drop ended short term historically.
[追記20220518 Added]
米銀上昇、UST10上昇、AI予測上昇などの条件が整ったので、長期保有枠1/4購入。都合トレード枠１に、長期保有枠１/4。USBank stocks advanced, UST10 yield advanced, and AI forecast indicated rebound as well, hence I bought 1/4 for long term holding limit. Total trading limit utilization is 4/4 while long term holding limit utilization is 1/4.
[追記20220524 Added]
米銀上昇、UST10上昇、などの条件が整ったので、寄り付き、長期保有枠1/4購入。都合トレード枠１に、長期保有枠２/4。USBank stocks advanced, UST10 yield advanced, hence I bought 1/4 at opening for long term holding limit. Total trading limit utilization is 4/4 while long term holding limit utilization is 2/4.
[追記20220617 Added]
中期上昇トレンド、レンジ下値抵抗線にタッチ。よって長期保有枠1/4購入。都合トレード枠 4/4に、長期保有枠3/4。Touched lower resistance of middle term upward trend. Hence I bought 1/4 for long term holding limit. Total trading limit utilization is 4/4 while long term holding limit utilization is 3/4.
[追記20220623 Added]
8058三菱商事だが、上昇レンジ下限、日足新値５本と条件がそろってきたため、前日22日と今日、長期保有限度枠1/4購入。これで保有枠はすべて使い切った。Bought 1/4of limit for Mitsubishi-Trading 8058 today and yesterday since it touched lower resistance of upward trend and also counted 5th break of three break line chart. Now all limits are used up.
[追記20220630 Added]
8306MUFGを3/4売却。現状4/4保持。買い余力3/4。2020年のコロナ開始から続いてきた中期上昇トレンド下値抵抗線をブレークしたため。月末要因もあるか。レンジに早期に戻らなければ、トレンドは消滅で様子見。Sold 3/4 of 8306MUFG. Currently keeping 4/4. This is because, MUFG broke the lower resistance of mid-term upward trend. Month end effect may presents. Unless price goes back to range, I should consider the trend is disappeared, hence need to observe the progress.
