レンジトレード20220801
Range Trade20220801
短期上昇レンジ下値抵抗線を破ったため2/４売却。現在2/4保持。明日８月２日４PM後場引け後に決算発表。下方修正の模様。Sold 2/4 since lower side resistance of short term upward range trend was broken. Currently holding 2/4. Tomorrow Aug 2nd 4PM, after the close of afternoon session, 1Qtr result will be announced. Expecting result revision downward.
[2022/08/02 Added] その後、トレンド線下限に到達するほど戻したものの、翌日、やはり下落した。Later, price came back as much as lower end resistance of upward trend however, next day, it went down as worried.
[2022/08/04 Added] さらに下落、下降トレンド下値抵抗線を目指す。Went down further heading for the lower resistance of downward range trend.
[2022/08/05 Added]
ピンクの中間線が700円のラインや長期上昇トレンド線と交差する付近で反発。Rebound observed near the area where middle down trend(in pink), 700 line as well as long term upward trend(in green)
下降レンジを脱却。1/4購入。Purchased for 1/4 since it got out of downward trend.
[2022/08/09 Added]
MUFG 上昇レンジ外れる。1/4売却。Sold MUFG for 1/4 since it got out of upward trend.
MUFG 上昇レンジ外れる。1/4売却。Sold MUFG for 1/4 since it got out of upward trend.
[2022/08/22 Added] 
中期的には上値余地がありそう。From mid term view, it still looks to have upside room to go up.
今後の見方として幾つかあるだろう。Couple of options from now will be,
１）900円を超えて上昇するための、単日の「ため」とみるか、Just small dip until next hike above 900.
２）チャートも寝てきているし、新値も４本数えたし、一旦調整開始とみるか、Correction might have started since chart started to look flat gradually, and 3LB counted four.
３）これから１年かけて起こるかもしれない変化に対し、一気にここまで上がるのは行き過ぎと本尊が判定し、一旦一部利確、後日再投資に回したとみるか、The actual change may take a year hence leading hedge funds might have decided that current rise is too much. Hence they sold for now partially to keep for reinvestment later.
与えられた情報の中では本尊が爆買して1000円を超えてくるようなエネルギーは無い。現状は小規模なファンドが回転売買しているだけだろう。There is no buying energy I can expect that drive price above 1000 from information given. Current surge is highly likely the result of circular buy-sell by small funds.
本人が否定しても、黒田は確かに僅かに利上げした。ただ、あくまで些少であり、それに見合った株価上昇はすでに終了したとみるべきか。Even if Kuroda denied himself, he did increase rate. However it is also true that the amount of rise is small, hence I should see that immediate stock price hike is just good level to justify such small rate hike.
これ以上株価が上昇するには新たな材料が必要だということだろう。More new measures will be required for the stock price to rise.
長期チャートからは下値抵抗線は700円程度。Long term chart suggest that lower range resistance
MTC 上昇レンジ外れる。一旦売却。Exit from upward trend. Temporarily exit MTC from trading position.
[2022/10/04 Added]
抵抗線で反発し、下降レンジから抜けたため1/4のみ購入。
[2022/10/18 Added]
抵抗線で反発し、下降レンジから抜けたため3/4購入。都合5/4保有。Rebounded at the resistance and did exit from downward range. Hence bought 3/4. Current holding is 5/4.
ドル建てチャートではコロナ暴落の中盤まで下がってきている。また、新値も逆転している。ただ、弱気相場のなかの短期の反騰であるため、トレンドから逸脱したら即売却する予定。$based chart shows MUFG is now in the mid point of Covid-19 market crush. Three line break reverted as well. However, will sell immediate once price diviates from trend since currently MUFG is on the long term down trend where we now see only temporal recovery for a short time.
[2022/10/19 Added]
トレンドから逸脱。5/4売却。都合保有ゼロ。Sold due to exit from trend. Sold all 5/4. Current holding is zero.
[2022/10/31 Added]
MUFGは下降トレンドから逸脱。0.1/4だけ試し玉を購入。Exit from downward trend. Bought 0.1/4 for test only.
MTCは抵抗線で下落停止。0.1/4だけ試し玉を購入。MTC stopped dropping at lower end resistance. Bought 0.1/4 for test only.
[2022/11/11 Added]
CPIの発表あり。8.1%予想が7.7%となり、インフレピークアウト期待でダウ平均は1200ドルの上昇、円は130円台に迫り、米銀株も軒並み上げた。このため、総額1/4をMUFGとMTCに充てたが、日本市場は冷静で反応しないため即売却。
CPI was announced. 8.1% expectation was turned out to be 7.7%, driving DOW upward for 1200 based on inflation peak out expectation. USDJPY is getting close to 130 level while US bank stocks went up drastic. I bought total 1/4 limit for MUFG and MTC however, Japan market was cool compared to US. Hence I sold all position immediately.
[2022/11/25 Added]
レンジブレークを期待し、１／４単位で数回売買したが、引けまでに手じまい。
[2022/11/26 Added]
FEDのPIVOTを囃し市場は上昇しているが、実際のPIVOT（FF金利低下）は１年後だ。ただ、過去、FFレートが下がり始めるまでは株価は上昇していることから、抵抗レンジをブレークしたタイミングで、長期投資枠のうち、２／４を投入。Market is in rally attributing to the FED PIVOT however, actual PIVOT(FF rate decrease) will be one year ahead. However, historically, stock market is rising until the start of FF rate drop. Hence I bought MUFG at the timing of breaking upper bound of upward range trend for 2/4 of long term position limit.
[2022/12/20 Added]
正午の日銀黒田の緩和解除会見により、銀行セクターは、後場、お祭り騒ぎ。後場早々に全持ち高２／４を売却し、引け間近に再度２／４購入。BOJ Kuroda's announcement at noon indicating the termination of super-easing monetary policy started the party in the afternoon session for banking sector. I sold all holding of 2/4 soon after the noon session started, then purchased 2/4 once more near the day closing.
上昇トレンドの上値抵抗線まではまだ上昇を続けると想定する。Up until the upper resistance of upward trend, MUFG may keep going up.
[2022/12/21 Added]
翌日は窓を開けて上昇したのでいったん上がったところで売却したが、再度上昇を始めたため再び購入。その日の頂点付近で売却。後場下がってきたところで再度購入したがその後下がってしまった。投資枠利用２／４。Limit utilization is 2/4. Next day, there was gap up, hence I sold at initial peak. However it started to rise once more, hence I bought gain and sold at the peak of the day. In the afternoon session, I purchased once more since it came down however, it went down toward day closing.
(週末、結果的に損益はプラスになった。It has gone up higher and my position taking profit became positive later)
[2022/12/26 Added ]
日本経済団体連合会審議委員会で黒田が昼、講演をするため、方向転換のリスク回避のため、朝方に２／４売却。現状保有はゼロ。Kuroda, BOJ governor, was going to make speech at Japan economic forum at 12:50PM, hence I sold 2/4 of limit to avoid exposure to risk of direction change. No position at this point.
黒田は、緩和は全く終了していないことを強調し、前場の上昇は逆転した。ヘッジファンドは銀行セクター全体で２兆円以上すでにつぎ込んでいるだろう。今後のオプションとして考えられるのは、Kuroda stressed that easing phase is not over at all and inverted the direction of morning session that was on rise. Hedge fund must have invested JPY2tr already to banking sector as a whole already. Options from now on will be,
１）日本の銀行セクターのValuationが低いのは明らかなのでそのまま放置（しかしそうなってくると他のセクターとの整合性も問題となるだろう）Leave this as this is since Japan's banking sector's valuation is obviously low. However, there are other sectors with low valuation, hence need to think of balance though.
２）ホットマネーでドローダウンが決められているので、残りの資金で価格を維持 Hot-money sometime has draw down limit, hence use rest of the money to keep price.
３）イベントドリブンヘッジファンドなので、想定イベントの前提が崩れたため撤退 Since this immediate investment is done by event-driven hedge fund, retreat this case since we see that fundamental event assumption is already lost.
４）数年後にはすべては正常化すると読んで、資金をさらに投入 Input money further assuming that all will go normal in few years.
どちらに行くかわからない。Honestly nobody knows where it goes.
[2022/12/27 Added ]
黒田の利上げではない発言と裏腹に国債金利は上げ続け、MUFGもじり高だ。Irrespective to Kuroda's statement saying that immediate YCC change on band width is not intended to have rate hike, JGB yield kept rising while MUFG is on gradual appreciation trend.
ただ、値動きは遅くなり、投資主体も変質してきているようだ。９００円の板の３００万株売りがチラッと見えた瞬間に上昇は反転した。先週であればあっという間に買われてしまっていた。However, the speed of rise is now slower and investor profile is changing as well. Today, as soon as 300mn sell order is shown on the 900yen trading board, the market reverted and started to go down. Such amount was bought immediate last week.
すでに天井圏ではあるが、連日のじり高は続きそうな感じがするため、１／４だけ再度投入することにした。I see that price is already in top zone however, to take advantage of the gradual upward trend, I bought 1/4 of limit today once more.
明日は日銀金利決定会合議事録の発表日で黒田の真意と、今後の展開が見えてくるだろう。
次の大きなトレンドの開始を確認するためには、９４０円台まで買われないといけない。940yen level is required to be sure about the start of next big trend.
[2022/12/28 Added ]
８：５０AMの委員会意見公開をチェックすると利上げ積極派はいなかったため、新たなサプライズなしと判定し、寄り付きで全数売却。その後、上げてきてしまったため買ったがピーク感があったため即時売却。I checked the committee opinion release of BOJ on 8:50AM however, there was no member in the committee who wish to promote the rate hike. Hence I sold all position at opening. Nevertheless price kept going up so I bought but soon found out that it looked the peek of the day hence sold immediate.
その後、公開情報が行き渡った為か、下落開始。Later that public information looked assimilated and price started to go down.
１）900円を超えて上昇するための、単日の「ため」とみるか、Just small dip until next hike above 900.
２）チャートも寝てきているし、新値も４本数えたし、一旦調整開始とみるか、Correction might have started since chart started to look flat gradually, and 3LB counted four.
３）これから１年かけて起こるかもしれない変化に対し、一気にここまで上がるのは行き過ぎと本尊が判定し、一旦一部利確、後日再投資に回したとみるか、The actual change may take a year hence leading hedge funds might have decided that current rise is too much. Hence they sold for now partially to keep for reinvestment later.
与えられた情報の中では本尊が爆買して1000円を超えてくるようなエネルギーは無い。現状は小規模なファンドが回転売買しているだけだろう。There is no buying energy I can expect that drive price above 1000 from information given. Current surge is highly likely the result of circular buy-sell by small funds.
本人が否定しても、黒田は確かに僅かに利上げした。ただ、あくまで些少であり、それに見合った株価上昇はすでに終了したとみるべきか。Even if Kuroda denied himself, he did increase rate. However it is also true that the amount of rise is small, hence I should see that immediate stock price hike is just good level to justify such small rate hike.
これ以上株価が上昇するには新たな材料が必要だということだろう。More new measures will be required for the stock price to rise.
[2022/12/30 Added ]
試し玉でごく少額持っていると動きがより実感できるので、寄り付き１／４０だけ購入。ところが上昇したため売却、引けにかけて下がったので再度購入。Holding tiny position makes price tracking easier, hence I purchased 1/40 at opening of morning session. However I sold soon since it went up quick. I purchased once more for same amount near closing of afternoon session since price came down.
現状、保有は１／４０のみ。 Current holding is only 1/40.
[2023/1/4 Added ]
予想に反して上昇は続き、最終的に１／４のポジションを持った。次の1000-2000のステージに移行するかもしれない。Price went up opposite to my expectation. I bought 1/4 in the end. MUFG may go up to next stage of 1000-2000.
will be 700.
[2023/1/5 Added ]
寄り付きで長期分2/3購入し、長期分は合計3/3。落ちた場合は、下値８００円近辺で再度、短期分４／４を購入する計画。Purchased 2/3 for long term making total long term as 3/3. Will make another short term purchase for 4/4 if dropped around 800.
購入当日さっそく天井を付けた気配で下落。On the day of purchase, price went down and looked like it hit peak for now.
ただ、株価の動きを見ていると、ファンドが継続的に回転売買して価格を吊り上げている様子が見える。However, it is observed that some fund has been continuously making rotational trading to pull up the price.
黒田の利上げのシナリオに乗った兆単位の資金の本尊がどこかの小規模ファンドを使っているのかもしれない。I believe the master mind that made decision to bet on Kuroda's rate hike scenario is using some small funds.
今回の上げで、本尊が次のレンジ１０００－２０００への引き上げをねらっているのかもしれないが、それには９４０円を超せるかどうかが試金石となる。This time master mind may be aiming the next range from 1000-2000 however, reaching 940 level will be a crucial milestone to achieve that.
ここが天井で下落した場合、新値逆転となる８５０円近辺（下図A）での反発が最も可能性がある。下図Bまで下落するのは、日銀が１０年債の金利変動幅を縮小するなど、利上げのシナリオが完全に消滅する場合。If current level is the peak, price may drop down to 850 level(A below) to bounce at resistance. However, if BOJ diminishes rate volatility of 10Yr JGB, rate hike scenario will be totally disappear and price may go down as far as 800(B below).
下がれば利回りは上昇し、配当銘柄として保有するだけだ。If price goes down, dividend yield will automatically goes up, for me to keep holding as dividend yielding stock.
SMBCとMUFGを比べた。銀行株としてパッケージで売買されていることがよくわかる。Compared SMBC and MUFG. Banking sector has been traded as one package.
[2023/1/6 Added ]
昨日入れたポジション3/3を全部解消した。昨年１２月のMUFG急上昇で得た利益の1/6の損失となった。Sold all 3/3 position purchased yesterday. I lost 1/6 of profit I got during Dec 2022 rally of MUFG.
反省点としては、Takeaways are,
１）現状、新値日足が５本を数え、レンジの上値抵抗線の売りタイミングであることを軽視した。I did not make much of the fact that 3LB counted 5 already as well as the fact that price is currently right on the upper resistance of upward range, hence is in 'sell' timing rather than 'buy'.
２）上値への回転売買による誘導に気を取らて、本尊の分析を怠った。I got caught up with the daily price surge by rotational trading by funds but did not pay much attention to the master mind's behavior.
３）ポジポジ病にかかり、チャンスを待つ姿勢を失っていた。I got "always positive" sickness where I lost chance to wait for chances.
４）チャンスとは、レンジの下値抵抗線、新値３、５、７本下落での買い、レンジ上値抵抗線ブレークでの買い。Chances are, 'buy' at the lower resistance as well as 3LB count 3,5,7, or when upper resistance is broken through.
５）相場が1000-2000円のレンジへ本当に移行するなら、940円を明確に上回ってからの買いで十分間に合う。940円を実現する前に焦る必要はない。If I am taking position expecting the range grade up to 1000-2000, then it is not to late to take position after the price goes beyond 940 for sure.
SMBCとMUFGを比較すると、今回の上げは銀行セクターへの資金の流入であることがよくわかる。If I compare the SMBC and MUFG, it is clear that immediate rise is not done bank specific but done on banking sector as a package.
日銀の金利誘導は一応機能しているようだ。BOJ interest rate control (YCC) looks working still.
今後、同じような無駄玉を何度も打つわけにはいかない。I cannot tolerate same type of wastes anymore if it is due to random shooting.
次のエントリーポイントは２つ。The next entry point will be following two.
１）株価が940を抜けて力強く上昇した場合。Stock price breaks up strongly beyond 940 level.
２）下落し、新値３、５，７本を数えて、かつ、理想的には鞘が詰まってきた場合 Stock price goes down to count 3LB 3,5,7, ideally with diminishing legs.
[2023/1/12 Added ]
その後、短期上昇レンジ下値抵抗線で反発、９４０を超過。予定通り３／３購入。上昇理由としては、東京のCPIが４％を超えたことで、１８日の日銀金利操作において、さらなる金融緩和解除が行われそうだという思惑。Later, MUFG bounced at the lower resistance of upward trend and passed 940 level. I purchased 3/3 as planned. The reason for rise is the increase of Tokyo CPI above 4%. People rumor that it can accelerate further termination of BOJ YCC easing at BOJ interest rate policy announcement on Jan 18th.
メガバンクのバスケット買いが続く。Master mind kept buying mega-banks in basket.
前場はメガバンクのセクター買い。一斉に上昇した。Morning session is mega-bank sector purchase. All mega banks rose at the same time.
当面の思惑が外れても、９４０を超過した意味は大きい。今後は下図のグリーンのレンジ（１０００－２０００）へ移行したと考え、新値３本を数える下落時に、残りを投入する。現状配当利回りはまだ３％台。Even if immediate assumption fails, passage of 940 level has big meaning. From now, I assume that trading has moved to green zone below, hence purchase the rest once it goes down and count 3 in 3LB.
[2023/1/13 Added ]
本日、本尊は上げていく意思であることを朝方の動きで確認できたと考え、今日中に１０００を目指すと想定した。このため、９９０近辺でさらに３／３積み増したがそこが天井で、上昇トレンドから外れたため、９９１で３／３さらに９７８で３／３売却。結果ゼロポジションとなった。月曜は再度３／３入る予定。I was convinced that master mind is aiming 1000 today by observing the price move during early morning. Hence I purchased another 3/3 around 990 however, that was the peak of the day showing the deviation from intraday-upward-trend. Then I sold 3/3 at 991 and another 3/3 at 978. Current position is zero as a result. I plan to enter next Monday for 3/3.
[2023/1/16 Added ]
ヘッジファンドに売り崩されている国債市場、進行するインフレ、円安、そして１８日に来る日銀の金利決定会合を考えた。結果、この上昇トレンドは継続すると判断し、長期、短期とも、３／３購入した。
このポジションはこのまま長期に保有する予定。
[2023/9/7 Added ]
全量売却。ポジションゼロ。１月に購入したが３月のMSQで暴落。８カ月にわたり保有したのは、金利はいずれ上昇せざる負えないと考えたから。ただ、３月の暴落は想像を超えるもので、MSQに対する準備不足であった。Complete liquidation. Zero positions. I purchased in January, but the March MSQ caused a crash. I held it for eight months because I believed interest rates would inevitably rise. However, the crash in March exceeded my expectations, and I was unprepared for the MSQ.
明日、運命の前場、寄り付きMSQは、銀行セクター上昇に目いっぱいお金を使ってきたデリバ筋が最後のブッコミをすると同時に、下げさせたいデリバ向きが目いっぱい売りに向かい、決着がついた後、デリバ目的で目いっぱい買った筋が一気に投げる。このまま、この速度で上がるとは思ってないから。そして、株価は下落するだろう。Tomorrow, in the fateful pre-market session, the opening MSQ will see derivative traders who have invested heavily in the banking sector rising, simultaneously with derivative traders who want to push it down selling heavily. After the settlement, traders who bought heavily for derivative purposes will suddenly dump. I don't expect it to continue rising at this speed. The stock price is likely to decline.
投げるなら明日寄り付きがベストだが、安全を見て本日売却。If you're going to sell, tomorrow's opening is the best time, but for safety, I sold today.
尤も、MSQでMUFGが下落したのは最近では今年３月のみ。However, MUFG's decline in the MSQ has occurred only in March of this year in recent times.
また、MSQはIndexのゲームなので、全体で４％のインパクトしかない金融セクターをドライバとすると効率悪い。ただ、これだけ円安が進んでもグズグズ利上げしない植田に対し、今年３月のようにMSQのタイミングで一旦ウエイトダウンすることも十分あり。やはり、新値７本を越えてガンガン上がっていくには、絶対的な利上げ姿勢がないと無理だろう。植田にはそれはない。Furthermore, MSQ is an index game, so it is inefficient to be driven by the financial sector, which accounts for only 4% of the total. However, there is a good chance that, like in March this year, there might be a temporary weight down in the timing of the MSQ, given that Ueda is not adopting an absolute stance on interest rate hikes, despite the yen depreciating so much. Still, to continue rising aggressively under 7 over counts of 3LB(Three Line Break), an unequivocal stance on interest rate hikes is essential, and Ueda does not have that.
加えて、IB化するMUFGがこれから来る中国恐慌で収益悪化するシナリオも確度が高く見える。オンライントレード手数料が格安になった今、一旦投げて、１週間ぐらい方向性を見てから再投資する。米株がずり落ちそう、中国不動産爆発、緩和継続、世界恐慌前夜の地合いで、日本の金融セクターだけがガンガン上がっていくシナリオは無理がある。Additionally, the scenario of MUFG turning into an investment bank and facing worsening profits in the upcoming Chinese crisis seems highly likely. Now that on-line trading fees have become cheap, I plan to sell once and observe the direction for about a week before reinvesting. With the backdrop of US stocks appearing to slide, a potential Chinese real estate explosion, continued easing, and the eve of a global recession, it seems unlikely that only the Japanese financial sector will continue to rise aggressively.