レンジトレード20230908
Range Trade20230908
[2023/09/8 Added]
MSQのため前日一旦売却した。ところが、本日寄り付きより思ったほど下がらず、逆に上昇を始めたため、今回のMSQは無風と考え、再エントリーしたものの、再び下落を始めたためロスカット。I sold my position in MSQ the day before yesterday. However, today, it didn't drop as much as I expected after the market opened; instead, it started to rise. I initially thought there would be no significant movement in MSQ this time, so I decided to re-enter. Unfortunately, it started to drop again, leading to a loss, and I had to cut my losses.
一旦売却した後は、次のトレンドが明確にでるまで待つことが必要だが、今回それを無視した、また、ロスカットが遅すぎたことも敗因。After selling my position, it is essential to wait for the next clear trend to emerge before taking any action. In this case, I ignored that rule, and my loss-cutting decision was also delayed, contributing to my defeat.
来週以降、明確に上昇を始めてからの再エントリー予定。I plan to re-enter once there is a clear upward trend starting from next week.
[2023/09/11 Added]
上昇再開のラインと考えていた１２４０円をあっさりと超えてきたため、長期、短期とも全量投入。Since upper resistance 1240 was easily passed, full amount was invested for both long term and short term positions.
チャート的には新値を７本以上数えた後であるが、抵抗線で弱く反落したあと、突き抜ける形で上昇に問題ないと思われる。Chart-wise, it appears that after counting seven or more 3LB, there was a weak pullback at the resistance line, but it seems that there shouldn't be any issues with an upward trend breaking through.
今後の予定は、Looking ahead,
１３日水曜日９：３０PM 米国インフレ発表。前回３．２％が今回３．５％予想。Wednesday, the 13th at 9:30 PM: US inflation announcement. Previous was 3.2%, and this time it's expected to be 3.5%.
２１日木曜日３AM 米パウエル金利決定会合 Thursday, the 21st at 3 AM: US Powell interest rate decision meeting.
２２日金曜日８：３０AM インフレ率発表 Friday, the 22nd at 8:30 AM: Inflation rate announcement.
１２PM 日銀金利決定会合 12 PM: Bank of Japan interest rate decision meeting.
ドル円は１５０円に近付きつつあり、円安防止の意味でも利上げが注目される。The USD/JPY is approaching 150 yen, and there is also attention on raising interest rates to prevent further yen depreciation.
[2023/09/15 Added]
２PMにブルームバーグから先週の植田利上げのニュースは誤解されているとの日銀関係者の報道があり、直後に、銀行セクター全体の暴落が始まった。ニュースは後で知った。At 2 PM, there were reports from Bank of Japan officials on Bloomberg stating that last week's Ueda rate hike news was misunderstood. Immediately after, a sharp decline in the entire banking sector began. I learned about this news later.
下落には2:15PMに気が付き、直ちにロスカットしたが、再び上昇を始めたため、再度購入した。I noticed the decline at 2:15 PM and promptly executed a stop-loss. However, as it began to rise again, I made another purchase.
来週月曜日は休日のため、３連休になるので、外資系から狙われるタイミングであるが、ロスカットを設定せずに放置していた。また、ニュースを常時見ることはしていなかったのもロスカットが遅れた原因。Next Monday is a holiday, resulting in a three-day weekend, making it a vulnerable time for foreign investors's attack. Unfortunately, I had not set a stop-loss and had left it unprotected. Additionally, not keeping a constant eye on the news contributed to the delayed stop-loss.
[2023/09/19 Added]
先週金曜日２PMからの急落を埋めてきたため売却。１３４０を超える上昇となった場合は、再度購入予定。明後日２１日朝３AMのFOMC、２２日正午の日銀金利決定会合とも利上げはない模様。２２日８AMの日本インフレ発表は２％を越えるインフレの継続を示すだろう。I sold due to the rapid decline that started last Friday at 2 PM, and I plan to buy again if it surpasses 1340 in the next surge. It appears that there will be no interest rate hikes in the FOMC meeting on the morning of the 21st and the Bank of Japan interest rate decision meeting at noon on the 22nd. The inflation announcement in Japan at 8 AM on the 22nd is expected to indicate continued inflation exceeding 2%.
[2023/10/04 Added]
MUFGではないが、長谷工と三菱商事を全量売却した。これで株式のポジションは完全にゼロになった。This is not on MUFG but I sold all Haseko and Mitsubishi Trading. Now there is no equity position.
売却理由はバリュー売却のトレンドはまだ継続するだろうと予測したため。反省点としては、売却理由が同じなので、三菱UFJを完全売却したのと同じタイミングで売却するべきだったということ。The reason of sell is that sell-off trend of value stocks may continue. One thing to regret is that I should have sold at the same timing as I sold MUFG since the reason of sell is the same as MUFG.
[2023/10/10 Added]
ロシア侵略戦争に加え、イスラエルでも新たに戦争が勃発した。また先週の雇用統計では雇用拡大でFRBの高金利継続懸念にもかかわらず、株価は続伸。３連休明けた日本株は続伸したため、試し玉を枠の1/50購入。今週木曜日には米CPI発表があり、ここで米株はまた大きく方向を変える可能性がある。本格参入は年初来高値を更新してからの予定。In addition to the invasion war in Russia, a new conflict has erupted in Israel. Furthermore, despite concerns of continued high interest rates by the Federal Reserve (FRB) due to the recent employment statistics released last week showing employment expansion, stock prices continued to rise. After the three-day weekend in Japan, I purchased some test shares for 1/50 of limit as Japanese stocks continued to advance. This Thursday, the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) will be announced, and there is a possibility that US stocks could once again change direction significantly based on this data. The plan is to make a full entry once they reach a new year-to-date high.
[2023/11/13 Added]
NY株が下降レンジから離脱してきたので、日本株にも波及することを期待して、試し玉をさらに1/50追加。現状、本格下落が始まるまでの年末までのチキンレースと割り切ったトレード。Since NY stock did exit from downward range resistance, expecting that to trigger Japan stock to exit down trend as well, I added another 1/50. Need to be aware that this is chicken-race
[2023/11/15 Added]
NY株が下降レンジから離脱したので、日本株も離脱すると考え、リミット内のフルインベストメントに復帰した。年末まではラリーがあると考える。SP500、ラッセル２０００、ダウ、NASDAQ、すべてが下降レンジから離脱している。I resumed full investment seeing the exit of NY stocks from downward range trend indicating the same for Japan stocks. Year end rally may follow this year. SP500, Russel2000, NY Dow, NASDAQ, all exit from downward trend.
14日火曜日には、米CPIインフレ率発表と、MUFGのQ2発表があった。インフレ率は低下し、パウエルの今後の利下げの無いことを示唆し、米株は急騰。同時にMUFGのQ２は増益と自社株買いでADRは急騰した。長谷工のQ2は増益だが通年は修正せず、三菱商事はバフェットの第二弾が期待できそうだ。Nov 14th(Tue) announcement of CPI inflation as well as Q2 result of MUFG drove the stocks to go higher. Inflation has gone down indicating the termination of further rate hike, driving US stocks to go high. Meanwhile ADR of MUFG has gone up reflecting the Q2 result earning increase as well as stock liquidation plan announced. Haseko's Q2 was increase however, annual result forecast was remained the same to be conservative. For Mitsubishi Trading, many expects 2nd Buffet investment may come soon.
[2023/11/21 Added]
NY株が下降レンジから離脱したものの、日本株は年初来高値のチャレンジに失敗寸前。Although the New York Stock Exchange broke away from a declining range, Japanese stocks almost going to fail their year-to-date highs.
現状、海外投資家は現物を買ってきていない。相場の変動は先物の売りと買戻しにより支配されているため、方向感はない。Presently, foreign investors haven't been purchasing actual shares. Market fluctuations are dominated by futures selling and buying, leading to a lack of directional certainty.
加えて、バリューからの資金流出もある。TOPIXは上がるが、MUFGは下がり、移動の様子が見える。Furthermore, there's been an outflow of funds from value stocks. While the TOPIX is rising, MUFG is falling, indicating a shift in movement.
今回参入したのは、年末に向けて最後のラリーがあるかと考えたためだったが、今年は大統領選を考えても無さそうだ。日経平均は円安による業績回復を元に上昇してきたが、Q2決算は出て、これからは円高へ向かう局面。業績回復は基本遅後指標であるため、業績上昇は頭打ちになる可能性が高い。The recent entry into the market was predicated on the expectation of a final rally toward the year-end, but it seems improbable this year, even if considering the presidential election. The Nikkei average has risen on the premise of profit recovery due to a weaker yen, but Q2 earnings have been released, and a shift toward a stronger yen is anticipated. Since profit recovery is essentially a lagging indicator, the upward trajectory of profits might hit a ceiling soon.
今回の買いが失敗したのは、The reasons for the failure in this recent purchase are:
①米CPIが低下し、パウエルの利上げがなくなった確信からNY株が急上昇、加えて、MUFGのQ2の業績が予想通りの回復であったことと、自社株買いが予想より３０％多かったことで翌日の株価が急上昇すると思い焦ってしまったこと。The belief that the decline in US CPI and Powell's halt in rate hikes led to a sudden surge in NY stocks. Additionally, MUFG's Q2 earnings matched expectations for recovery, coupled with a buyback that was 30% higher than anticipated, causing an impulsive response to the subsequent surge in stock prices.
②寄り付きで上昇せず、逆に値下がりした際、即座にロスカットしなかったこと。今後、買った瞬間から逆になった場合は即時ロスカットとする必要があった。Not cutting losses immediately when the market didn’t rise at the opening and instead experienced a decline. Immediate stop-loss should have been implemented in situations where the market turned against the purchase.
③ここ半年ほど、フルインベストメントで上昇波に乗ってきたため、同じ乗りでフルインベストメントとしてしまったこと。現状、チャートの節目を力強く打ち破る強い動きは見えておらず、分割売買が適している相場であることを認識していないこと。Having ridden the upward wave in full investment for the past six months, entering with a full investment mindset. Currently, there isn't a strong movement breaking key points on the chart, indicating a market more suited for fractional trading, a realization that was overlooked.
今回の失敗で、本年の収益の１０％が飛んでしまった。上昇波の終了の検出はうまくいったのに残念。This failure resulted in a loss of 10% of this year's earnings. It's regrettable, given the successful detection of the end of the uptrend.
今後の市場のシナリオだが、米市場は、「利下げが株価を押し上げ、ソフトランディングで最高値更新」、という楽観シナリオは影を潜め、年末ラリーのない、不景気突入ムードに満ちた１２月となりそうだ。米の金利低下は経済活動の低下を織り込んだもの。Looking ahead in the market scenario, the optimistic scenario of "rate cuts pushing stocks up and a soft landing for record highs" in the US market seems to have faded. December might be characterized by a lack of year-end rally and a mood indicative of an impending economic downturn. The decrease in US interest rates factors in a decline in economic activity.
市場は、逆イールド解消後に景気後退が来ることを織り込んでおり、暴落前の最後のパーテイーが始まる可能性は小さい。The market has factored in a potential economic downturn after the inverted yield curve, making it less likely for a final party before a crash to commence.
長谷工並びに三菱商事も同時にカットした。長谷工は上昇トレンド割れ、三菱商事はバフェット効果の限界と日本株の天井が売却要因。I cut Haseko as well as Mitsubishi trading. Haseko broke the lower resistance of upward trend, while Mitsubishi trading has limitation to expect to Buffet as well as the peak out of Japan stock.
[2024/1/25 Added]
昨年の１１月の失敗したチャレンジから保有していなかった。しかし、一昨日の日銀金利決定会合の発表を受けて、昨日、再参入判定レベル1360を大きく抜ける1385まで終値ベースで上昇。保有枠の４／５買い。I did not hold any positions since the failed challenge in November last year. However, following the announcement at the Bank of Japan interest rate decision meeting the day before yesterday, the price rose significantly, closing above the re-entry judgment level of 1360 and reaching 1385 on a closing basis yesterday. I bought 4/5 of the holding limit.
日銀決定会合では春闘の結果を見て利上げ開始とするようで、タイミングは４月がコンセンサス。昨年と同様、コンセンサスが破られた時の急落も可能性が高く、４月付近ではロスカットを設定する必要あり。It seems that the Bank of Japan is considering starting a rate hike based on the results of the spring labor negotiations at the decision meeting. The consensus timing is in April. Similar to last year, there is a high possibility of a sharp decline if the consensus is broken. It is necessary to set a stop-loss around April.
利上げは同時に日経平均にはマイナス要因、ドル円は下落（円高）要因。A rate hike is a negative factor for the Nikkei average and a downward (yen appreciation) factor for the USD/JPY.
この上昇で、次の上昇相場の開始の合図が上がった。当面のタ－ゲットは1460円付近のレンジ抵抗線までの上昇。With this rise, the signal for the beginning of the next bullish market has been given. The short-term target is an increase to the range resistance line near 1460 yen.
下値のリスクは1350円近辺のトレンド下値抵抗線までの下落。それを下抜けすると、1250円のレンジ抵抗線まで下落。1250レベルまで落ちた場合、残りの１／５を買う予定。The downside risk is a decline to the trend support line around 1350 yen. If it breaks below that, it could fall to the range support line at 1250 yen. If it falls to the 1250 level, I plan to buy the remaining 1/5.
長谷工も窓を開けて下落し、新値を更新。管理枠の１／３を買う。現状で配当利回り4.2%、ROEは14%。3/31までに管理枠1まで買う予定。決算日は２／９。トレンド下限抵抗線1820まで下落したら1/3追加買いの予定。Haseko Corporation also declined after opening a window and set a new low. I will buy 1/3 of the allocation for the managed portfolio. Currently, the dividend yield is 4.2%, and the ROE is 14%. I plan to buy up to the entire managed portfolio by March 31. The earnings announcement is on February 9. If it falls to the lower trend resistance line of 1820, I plan to add another 1/3.
三菱商事は昨年度来高値を更新した後の調整。軽く調整した後再度上昇するかは不明だが、日本株の好調はまだ続くと考えられ、３回目のトライでレンジから脱却する可能性を考えた。取引高の激増にも着目した。下落すると2200近辺で抵抗線あり。本日枠の1/3だけ買う。レンジ下限に達したら再度、枠の1/3購入予定。3/31までに枠利用率1とする予定。配当利回り2.8%、ROE16%。Mitsubishi Corporation adjusted after reaching a new high last fiscal year. It is uncertain whether it will rise again after a slight adjustment, but the positive trend in Japanese stocks is believed to continue, and there is potential for a breakthrough from the current range on the third attempt. Attention is also drawn to the sharp increase in trading volume. If it falls, there is a resistance line around 2200. Today, I will only buy 1/3 of the allocation. If it reaches the lower limit of the range, I plan to purchase another 1/3. The plan is to utilize all of the allocation by March 31. The dividend yield is 2.8%, and the ROE is 16%.
