AI 株価予測 20210924の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20210924 Status 8306MUFG

 

AI 株価予測 20210924の状況8306MUFG 

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20210924 Status 8306MUFG

今週は木曜まで恒大グループ倒産とFOMCで株価は暴落。売買は様子見。Evergrande group's bankruptcy and FOMC lead the collapse of the market this week until Thursday. Hence trading was on hold,  and I just watched how things went.  

その後、恒大グループの利払いはなされる方向となる一方、FOMCでは１１月からのテーパリングが再確認され、サプライズは無かった。結果、市場には安心感が戻り、株価は世界中で急伸した。Later this week, Evergrande group looked resuming coupon payment, also FOMC suggested tapering from Nov as previously indicated. There was no surprise. As a result, relief came back to the market and stock jumped globally.

中でも、金利上昇によるギャップ収益の拡大が見込める銀行株の戻りは早かったため、短期トレード枠の１／３を２４日寄り付きで買った。Among other stocks, banking sector advanced faster due to expansion of gapping profit as a result of interest rate hike. Hence I bought 1/3 of trade limit as of 24th market opening. 

恒大グループは氷山の一角で中国全体の不動産は日本の８０年代後期のバブル期と同じ状態になっているようだ。加えて、共産党が現在の準ー資本主義から純粋な共産主義へ回帰する方針だ。世界経済に与える影響は甚大だ。Evergrande group is only a tip of the iceberg of whole Chinese real estate industry that looks in the middle of bubble just like Japan was back in late 80's. On top of that, Communist part of China looks aiming to revert back to pure communism rather than current semi capitalism. Tremendous impact to the whole world is expected going forward. 

UST10Yr

[今回予測20210924］Forecast at this time 

[前回予測20210917］Forecast at this time 

MUFG 3LB M/W/D

Topix Daily

AI 株価予測 20210917の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20210917 Status 8306MUFG

 

AI 株価予測 20210917の状況8306MUFG 

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20210917 Status 8306MUFG

先週は13日に631.5で先週買い分の売り。14日に639.9で買うも、17日に640.6で売り。上昇レンジの上値抵抗線で跳ね返された。Last week, on 13th, sold at 631.5 for the last week buy. Bought at 639.9 on 14th and sold on 17th at 640.6. Bounced down at the upper resistance of upward range trend. 

先週のAI予測、640越えは的中した。今週は微増にとどまっているため、上昇レンジの下限620までの下落はあると予想。The AI forecast of last year hitting 640 was correct. The forecast of this week is a bit increase, hence drop down to 620 is possible scenario. 

NYは来週FOMC、中国の大手不動産会社破綻を境にいよいよ崩落に向かうかもしれず、日本株も影響は免れないだろう。日経平均も頭を垂れ、MACDも陰転。NY stock may collapse next week triggered by FOMC, bankruptcy of big Chinese real estate firm, hence impact to Japanese stock is inevitable. Trend of Nikkei looks hitting the top and MACD indicates negative trend going forward. 

連休の今週、日本は３営業日のみだ。本日月曜日夜10時からのNYの動きに注目。Next week has only 3 market-open days. Let's watch what will happen in NY market 1st, today 10PM. 

[今回予測20210917］Forecast at this time 

[前回予測20210910］Previous forecast

ダメ元の薬 A Cure Medicine, Nothing to Lose

 ダメ元の薬

A Cure Medicine, Nothing to Lose

ダメ元の意味を考えてみた。Just thought of the meaning of 'Nothing to lose'. 

数十年前に認可され、３０億人以上に処方された、認可用量であれば、副作用は些少な薬があったとする。新薬と違い、長期の運用実績で、その安全性は明確になっている。Assuming that there is a drug that has been prescribed for decades to more than 3bn people with minimal side effect under the approved dose. Compared to the brand new drug, the safety is distinct through long term clinical evidence. 

その薬をコロナ患者に認可用量範囲で、適用外処方すると、何が起こるだろうか？ What can happen if the approved dose of the drug is prescribed to Covid-19 patients as off-label use medicine?

今、その薬のコロナに対する効果について、世間は大騒ぎだ。Now world is in confusion under the efficacy of that medicine. 

賛成派、反対派の両者に公平にするため、To be fair to both sides, pro and cons, let's assume that, 

その薬が効く確率が５０％、50% probability that the drug is effective

効かない確率は５０％ 50% chance that the drug is not effective

としよう。

今、コロナの死亡率を１％とする。Now assume that mortality of Covid-19 is 1%.

すると、服用する、しない、の選択後の死亡確率は次のようになる。Then, the mortality after the selection of intake of cure medicine will be, 

服用した場合の死亡確率　１％　X　５０％　＝　０．５％ Mortality when took the drug

服用しない場合の死亡確率　１％　X　１００％　＝　１％ Mortality if the drug was not taken

あれ！OMG! 

効く確率が５０％なのに、死亡確率は半分になった！Although the probability of efficacy is only 50%, the probability of death is now half. 

これがいわゆる「ダメ元」である。 This is so-called 'nothing to lose'. 

昔から、医薬分野に「三た」として、揶揄されている思考法があった。服用し「た」、治っ「た」、効い「た」。病気は薬なしでも治る場合も多く、薬が本当に効能を発揮したのか定かでない訳だ。そこで、証拠ベースの医療（EBM）が提唱され、二重盲検（RCT）などのより厳格な検証を行う事になった。「三た」があまりに直感ベースであった反動で、RCTは「科学の光」として崇められ、ついには、RCTを行わないと一歩も先に進まない状態を作り出してしまった。Once upon a time, there was a way of thinking teased as three 'ta' theory in medical field. That is, took the drug (Fukuyou shi ta), recovered (Naot ta), then judge as effective(kii ta). Many sickness can be cured without medicine, hence it is not clear if that medicine actually worked or not. Hence, evidenced based medicine (EBM) was advocated with stringent randomized control test(RCT) to stand out as mainstream procedure in clinical trial. As a strong indication of anti-these of three 'ta', that was too intuitive, RCT was adored as "a light of science", then ended up creating a situation where no RCT, nothing to move forward. 

以前、同様の記事を出しているので、重複になってしまったが、今回は、もっと簡単にわかりやすく書いてみた。I posted similar article, hence this can be redundant however, this time I tried to write more casual. 

東京コロナ感染者激減のヒミツ Sudden Reduction of Covid-19 in Tokyo, a Secret Reason

 東京コロナ感染者激減のヒミツ

Sudden Reduction of Covid-19 in Tokyo, Secret Reason

夏以降、東京ではコロナの患者数が激減している。多くの人が不思議に思っている。Since this summer, the number of Covid-19 infections in Tokyo has been reducing drastically, making many wonder WHY? 

気温か？長雨か？自粛効果か？ワクチンか？はたまた、私がやっているような、イベルメクチン個人輸入の普及か？Temperature drop? Long rain? Self rock-down? Vaccination? Or individual import based Ivermectin effect, just like I have been doing? 

その中で、注目すべき仮説は、Error Catastropheだ。ウイルスが自己複製を繰り返す間、複製間違いが発生し、何世代か後には絶滅してしまうというものだ。Among other hypothesis, I am focusing on the Error Catastrophe theory. This theory is saying that, as one specific kind of virus group reproduce themselves generation after generation, copy-error happens, and it eventually goes extinct after few generations.

この理論を適用すると、一つ一つの山はウイルスが増殖を始めてから死滅するまでの過程を示すことになる。一旦ある種が死滅しても、突然変異を起こして発生した次の変異種が再び増殖し、そしてまた死滅していく。Based on this theory, each set of surge and decline represents the virus reproduction and extinction process of one specific variant of virus.  Even if that specific variant of virus has gone extinct, another mutated variant will once more start reproducing and also will go extinct after few generations of mutation. 

現状で、ワクチンは一つのウイルス種について有効だが、変異すると効果は落ちる。これに普遍的に対応するには、ウイルスの自己複製を止める治療薬がやはり必要だろう。At this moment, vaccine is effective for one specific kind of virus, hence has less efficacy for the mutated variant. To cope with this problem more robust, we do need to have cure medicine to stop reproduction of virus in the 1st place. 

AI 株価予測 20210910の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20210910 Status 8306MUFG

  

AI 株価予測 20210910の状況8306MUFG 

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20210910 Status 8306MUFG

６日（月）ウエッジを抜けられなかったため一旦売り、７日（火）抜けたため買い、８日（水）MUFGのみ理由なく突出したため一旦売り、９日（木）突出が解消し下がったため再度買い、10日（金）は上昇で放置。AI予想は日足で続伸。Sold on 6th since MUFG failed to break through wedge. Bought on 7th since it broke through the wedge. Sold on 8th since only MUFG went up strong among banks without reason. Bought on 9th since price went down aligning the other banks. No action on 10th since it just went up.　AI forecasted upward for daily.

３万円の節目抜けに際し、日経平均への外資系のまとまった買いが入ってきた影響がMUFGにも及んでいるようだ。金利動向より、日本株の水準訂正が要因だろう。Facing break through of 30K level, quite some flow of buy came into MUFG from foreign banks. Rather than interest rate, level adjustment looks main driver to be attributed to this rise.

来週は、続伸が大方の見方だ。上昇レンジの次の上値抵抗線は640円近辺で、これをすんなり抜けるかがまず試されそうだ。Next week, many expects stock to rise. Next target is around 640, that is the upper bound of upward range. It is important to break through this range to keep the position.

ただ、週末のNYダウ、NASDAQ急落を受けて、米国はついに暴落開始するという見方も多く、注意しながら進みたい。However need to note that some expects US stocks to start crashing triggered by NY Dow and NASDAQ sudden drop on weekend. 

[今回予測20210910］Forecast at this time 

[前回予測20210903］Previous forecast

AI 株価予測 20210903の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20210903 Status 8306MUFG

 

AI 株価予測 20210903の状況8306MUFG 

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20210903 Status 8306MUFG

週初に上昇レンジから離脱したため一旦売却したが、月末を挟んで回帰したため再度購入した。Sold in the beginning of the week since price dropped outside of upward range however, purchased once more since it reverted back on upward range once more spanning over the month end.

MUFGの上昇は、個別要因でなく、NK225先物の上昇の要因が大きい。MUFG's rise is attributed rather on systematic NK225 rise factor than specific factor on MUFG.

来週はウエッジの上端までが一応の売却メドとなりそうだ。もし、これを勢いよく抜けることが出来ればさらに上の上昇トレンドレンジを追える。Next week, focus will be on sell timing when it come close to upper end of wedge. If price breaks up the range strongly, then further upward trend range will be sought out. 

菅総理の首相交代のニュースを受け、NK225のチャートは下方レンジを上抜けしたため、来週は上値を試す展開になるかもしれない。Facing the replacement of the prime minister Suga, Nikkei225 did exit from downward range, hence next week we may see further development seeking for further upward zone. 

[今回予測20210903］Forecast at this time 

変化なし

[前回予測20210827］Previous forecast