AI 株価予測 20220624の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220624 Status 8306MUFG

 AI 株価予測 20220624の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220624 Status 8306MUFG

金利引き締めに伴い米国株は中間反騰を挟みつつ、下落基調。同じく長期保有している三菱商事(8058)が長期上昇トレンドの下値抵抗線をヒットしたためトレード枠1/4だけ追加投資。Along with interest rate tightening in US, US stocks have been on downtrend including temporal rebound period. Mitsubishi Trading(8058) hit lower resistance of upward trend, hence bought 1/4 of trading limit on top of existing long term holding position. 

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は4/4。長期保有は3/4。Trade details are here. 4/4 limit holding at the point of weekend with 3/4 for long term holding position. 

AI予測は不変で続落。AI forecast is unchanged, downtrend. 

来週は週末の米国株反発を反映して一旦は反発するだろう。Next week may start from rebound reflecting the US stock rebound of last week.

先週はグロース優良株が一気に急落する局面が続いた。持ち株については低PER、PBR、高配当利回りで固めているので影響は限定されると予想。Last week, growth stocks showed sudden collapse everywhere. As far as my current holding concerns, all stocks are low PER, PBR and high dividend yield. Hence impact should be minimal. 

ウクライナは欧米の武器供与に本腰が入らず、劣勢。長期化するのだろうか。Ukrain war settlement may take longer due to lack of serious support from western countries. 

米銀株、USTU10とSPX  US Banks, UST10＆SPX

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

[今回予測20220617］Forecast at this time 

変わらず No Change

[前回予測20220610］Previous Forecast 

3LB Month/Week/Day

Midterm Range

 クラリスロマイシンの記憶　Memory on Clarithromycin

クラリスロマイシンには大変お世話になっている。Clarithromycin has been helping me a lot.

かなり前、マイコプラズマ肺炎にかかりやすく、クラリスロマイシンで治った。修理などで、錆びた金属で小さな刺し傷が出来た後、気持ちが悪くなってきた時も、クラリスロマイシンに助けられた。Some time ago, I tended to get Mycoplasma pneumonia often and each time I recovered by Clarithromycin. When I felt sick after getting small stab wound by rusty metal while repairing something, it was again Clarithromycin that made me recover. 

つい最近では歯周ポケットからの歯神経の痛み。これもクラリスロマイシン200mg一錠で消失。Quite recently, when I got pain in dental nerve in Periodontal pocket, one 200mg dose of Clarithromycin killed the pain totally.

それから昨日は耳管の炎症と頭痛。これもクラリスロマイシン200mg一錠で消失。And yesterday's inflammation pain in eustacian tube with headache. It has gone also by one dose of 200mg Clarithromycin.

当然のことながら、万能薬ではなく、抗生物質が対抗できるのは菌だけで、ウイルスはダメなようだ。また、自身の経験は無いが、副作用もあり、安易な常用は絶対に避けている。No need to mention that Clarithromycin is NOT an all-mighty medicine but can only attack germs but not virus. Also note that constant easy going dosing should be avoided hence it DOES have side effects although I did not experience any. 

抗生物質には、ペニシリン系、セフェム系、マクロライド系（クラリスロマイシン）など多数あり、人によって適不適があるようだ。There are lots of kinds of antibiotics such as Penicillins, Cephem,  Macrolides (Clarithromycin),  etc., and each has individual match. 

私個人はペニシリン系は合わない。I myself cannot get along with Penicillins family.

自分に合う薬を把握しておくことは大事なことだ。It is important to know one's match in medicine. 

AI 株価予測 20220617の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220617 Status 8306MUFG

 

AI 株価予測 20220617の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220617 Status 8306MUFG

黒田の利上げは成らず、リフレ策継続となった。GDPと企業支援が主眼の様だ。米FF金利は0.75%上昇し、NYは下落継続。Kuroda never increased the policy rate but decided to continue reflation. 　Looks like he is focusing on the support of GDP as well as corporate P/L. 

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は4/4。長期保有は3/4。Trade details are here. 4/4 limit holding at the point of weekend with 3/4 for long term holding position. 

AI予測は不変で続落。AI forecast is unchanged, downtrend. 

MUFGは中期上昇トレンドの下限抵抗線に到達。1/4買い増し。毎度のことだが、下限抵抗線を見ている投資主体が今回も出動する保証はない。ただ、取引量を見る限り大口が抜けた気配もない。来週は再度正念場となりそうだ。MUFG reached the lower resistance of mid term upward trend. Bought 1/4. As same as previous challenge against the lower resistance, there is no guarantee that major investor will come in at this level that is supposed to watch this resistance. Meanwhile there is no trace observed that such major investor got out of position as far as trading volume concern. Next week will be critical. 

もし抵抗線を抜けた場合は放置。現状で配当利回り4.38%あり、底を抜けても問題ない。もし400円台まで下落することがあれば、配当利回りは7%近くなるため、更にポジションを拡大していくことも考えたい。If it break through the resistance downward, I do not see problem since dividend yield is 4.38% already. If it goes down around 400 level, the dividend yield will be around 7%, hence I will consider to expand position further. 

米国株の調整は、今後１年は続くだろう。てんこ盛りの問題の中、ロシア経済制裁が最も不透明だ。ウクライナの今後の展開に注目したい。これは自由主義体制に対する挑戦状であり、その帰趨は今後の世界情勢に決定的な影響を与える。US stock's downtrend may continue another year. Among ton's of problems, economic sanctions against Russia lacks the transparency most. Need to have close look on how it goes. This is an outright challenge against the free world framework, and its result will have fatal impact against world status going forward. 

米銀株、USTU10とNASDQ　US Banks, UST10＆NASDQ

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

[今回予測20220617］Forecast at this time 

変わらず No Change

[前回予測20220610］Previous Forecast 

3LB Month/Week/Day

Midterm Range

円安は外貨準備で Cope with JPY depreciation by Fcy reserve

 円安は外貨準備で Cope with JPY depreciation by Fcy reserve

円安、円高は功罪混じる。JPY appreciation and depreciation have merit as well as demerit. 

総合して最適な水準に誘導するのが国家としての役割。It is national responsibility to drive the level to the appropriate optimum.

現状、日米金利差で円高は１４０円に迫る勢い。Currently, JPY rate is reaching almost 140 due to interest rate difference between US/Japan.

そろそろ、過去、円高防止で積み上げた１５０兆円に上る外貨準備を、今度は、円安防止に使う時期に来ている。Now it is a time to sell of piled up JPY150tr equivalent foreign currency(Fcy) reserve through protection against JPY appreciation some time ago.

８０円台から積み上げた外貨準備の売却は２０兆円規模の政府収入となる。Extra government income benefit is the realization of the approximately JPY20tr gain that has been bought since 80Yen/$ level. 

ビットコインはまだ終わっていない BitCoin Is Not Finished Yet

ビットコインはまだ終わっていない

BitCoin Is Not Finished Yet

QE終了、QT開始、ロシア経済制裁による過剰流動性縮小と、株式市場暴落、CBDC準備開始などの逆風によりBitCoinは下落開始。End of QE and start of QT followed by economic sanctions against Russia. Stock market collapse. Start of CBDC preparation. All these against-winds drove BitiCoin to go down. 

ただ、対数チャートを見ると、過去のトレンドから大きく乖離しているわけではない。3800ドルより下がると、トレンド回帰は難しそうだ。However, looking at the logarithmic chart above, current level is not deviating much from historical trend unless price goes down below 3,800 since reversion may be difficult from that point. 

本当に終わったというには、まだ時間がかかりそうだ。 It will take more time to say that BitCoin is finally over. 

AI 株価予測 20220610の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220610 Status 8306MUFG

AI 株価予測 20220610の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220610 Status 8306MUFG

週末にCPI８％でNY暴落。次回のFF金利は0.75%上昇の予定。US market crashed as CPI hit over 8% on Friday. Next rate hike will be 0.75%.

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は4/4。長期保有は2/4。Trade details are here. 4/4 limit holding at the point of weekend with 2/4 for long term holding position.

AI予測は不変で続落。AI forecast is unchanged, downtrend. 

週末ADRはNY800ドル暴落を受けて軒並みマイナス。来週はいよいよ再度黄色の中期上昇トレンド下限を試す展開。All ADRs are negative facing $800 collapse of NY market.  Next week is a challenge testing lower resistance of upward range trend.

インフレとQE、QTで、FEDに続きECBも利上げを発表。日銀も早晩方針転換するだろう。ウクライナは武器不足で戦線が不利。長距離砲の到着を待って反撃は始まる予定。Following FED, ECB will increase policy rate soon as inflation goes on as well as QE and QT. BOJ  may follow the same sooner or later. Ukraine is losing due to lack of weapons. Situation may go positive as Ukraine receives long range artilleries from US.

UST10は再上昇開始。FFレートの上昇速度に追いつかないと、カーブがフラット化するリスクがある。UST10 resumed to go up. Unless UST10 rate increase catches up the speed of FF rate hike, yield curve may go flat, and that is a risk to bank's profitability.

米長期金利　UST10 Yield

米銀株とNASDQ　US Banks＆NASDQ

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

[今回予測20220610］Forecast at this time 

変わらず No Change

[前回予測20220603］Previous Forecast 

3LB Month/Week/Day

Midterm Range

AI 株価予測 20220603の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220603 Status 8306MUFG

 

AI 株価予測 20220603の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220603 Status 8306MUFG

方向性を欠いた週。Disoriented for the whole week.

トレード詳細はこちら。結果的にトレード枠利用は4/4。長期保有は2/4。Trade details are here. As a result, 4/4 limit holding at the point of weekend with 2/4 for long term holding position.

AI予測は不変で続落。AI forecast is unchanged, downtrend. 

引き続き、チャートからは、黄色の中期上昇トレンド下限を再び試す様子。Same as last week, technical chart is implying another testing of mid term upward trend resistance once more as indicated in yellow arrow.

現状、世界経済は複雑骨折。超重要問題が、これでもかというくらい、てんこ盛りだ。Currently world economy is under complex hardship. Super serious problems are piling up far more than enough.

コロナ。過剰なコロナ経済対策とインフレ。ロシアへの経済制裁による資源インフレ。FRBのQE終了、QT開始によるインフレ退治と金利急上昇。中国経済の成長の牽引役だった不動産バブルの崩壊。ロシアの核使用リスク。Covid-19. Excessive Covid-19 financial assistance and corresponding inflation. Inflation on natural resources due to economic sanctions against Russia. FRB's end of QE and start of QT to kill inflation and corresponding interest rate hike. The collapse of real estate bubble in China that has been leading Chinese economic growth. The risk of nuclear war by Russia. 

なかでも、核戦争により人類が消滅するリスクをヘッジすることは不可能だ。すべての金融資産は人間社会があって初めて価値を持つ。自分ひとりだけが残って、”財産”を積み上げるたら、それはお笑いだ。Among other risks, it is impossible to hedge the risk of extinction of human being by nuclear war. All financial assets have their value only if human society exists. It is a joke to survive only oneself and piling up assets.

米長期金利　UST10 Yield

米銀株　US Banks

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

[今回予測20220527］Forecast at this time 

変わらず No Change

[前回予測20220520］Previous Forecast 

3LB Month/Week/Day

Midterm Range