Stock Price AI Forecast - 20230210Status 8306MUFG

日銀の総裁人事に向けてメガバンクセクターは上昇レンジに復帰。果たして学者の植田氏が内定となったよう。過去の発言から、植田氏は普通の緩和を目指す模様で、YCCを中止し、O/N金利はマイナス維持とするものと想定。Toward the selection of next BOJ governor, bank sector stocks advanced and came back on the upward range trend. Eventually Ueda, a scholar was nominated. From his historical statements, it is expected that he will rather aim for normal easing hence may stop YCC but keep O/N negative interest rate.

ただ、実際のところは、来週以降の発言を聞かない限り、誰にもわからない。来週は限られた情報の中で相場は始まるため、発言内容により乱高下しそう。However in reality, nobody knows what will happen unless we hear more from him next week. Next week market will start from limited information, hence I expect big volatility depending on his comments.

YCCが解除されればＯＮがマイナスであっても銀行の長短金利ＧＡＰ収益は増大する。現状、YCCは10年債の日銀保有率が100%を超過するなど軋みが激化しており破綻は間近い。Once YCC is dismantled, even if ON rate is kept negative, bank's long/short term interest rate gap income will increase. Currently YCC is cornered and close to catastrophic ending. Current BOJ's ownership for 10yr JGB exceeds 100%. How far they can go? 1000%?

株価は依然、メガバンクセクターバスケット単位で動き、個別銀行要因は顕在化していない。Stock price still move as mega bank sector basket while there is no distinctive individual behavior observed.

国債１０年利回りは再び上限を目指す一方、５年は反発してきた。JGB 10yr yield once again started to challenge upper bound while 5yr JGB yield is coming up as well.

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は3/3。長期枠利用は3/3。Trade details are here. 3/3 limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 3/3.

来週は日米インフレ率の発表があり、波乱が予想される。This week, inflation rate for US and Japan will be updated. Market volatility increase is expected.

新値AI予測は上昇。AI forecasted upward trend.

三菱商事は好業績を受けて反発した。Mitsubishi corp has gone up reflecting good Q3 result.

長谷工は反発。２月９日Q3決算発表は収益認識タイミングで減益だが通期では増益の模様。Haseko has gone up. Q3 financial result was announced on Feb 9th for profit advance at fiscal year end but decrease for Q3 due to timing.

ウクライナではロシアの本格侵攻が始まるらしい。いよいよ天下分け目の戦いが始まろうとしている。Looks like Russia is going to initiate large scale invasion soon. Now big time is coming.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX US Banks, UST10＆SPX

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

逆イールドは過去、株暴落の合図となっている。Historically reverse yield has been a good indicator to warn market crash.

PSAVEについては、何度見ても今回の米国インフレはコロナ支援の過剰なバラマキによるもので、それが使われ尽くされた現在、インフレも自然と治まりそうな感じがしてならない。For PSAVE, I cannot stop feeling that inflation will end naturally as government excessive Covid-19 financial aid based saving is exhausted. It is well understood that current US inflation stems from government aid.