Stock Price AI Forecast - 20230818　8306MUFG

あっと言う間に暴落という事にはならなかった。レンジ内の動きが続く。Did not crash at once. Still moving withing the upward range trading zone.

金曜日１８日発表のインフレ率が予測やコンセンサスを越えた３．３％と鎮静化していないことから、利上げ圧力が高まる可能はある。The Japan inflation rate announced last Friday, 18th was 3.3%, that is the same as previous month, and was higher than both forecast and consensus. This may lead to the interest rate hike pressure going forward.

基本スタンスはホールドで、５００円台に落ちてきたところで買い増し。Main strategy is hold while additional buy only when it goes down to 500 Yen level.

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The biggest worry of US stock is the crash of US commercial real estate due to remote work, that is not really considered in the market still.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。Underlying impact is coming also from crash of Chinese real estate market. The shrinkage of China money will accelerate the further crash of commercial real estate market globally.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。９月末の配当を待たずして起こる可能性もある。The world wide stock market crash stemming from US market crash will happen in few months. It can happen before the dividend day in Sep end.

投資主体別統計は面白い。個人・年金は売り、海外が買い、証券自己が買いだ。Investor statistics is interesting. Individuals and pensions are selling, while offshore and securities prop trading desk is buying.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE is on recovery trend while USDJPY got intervention.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT looks in halt while money stock is on down trend.

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は3/3。長期枠利用は3/3。Trade details are here.

3/3 limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 3/3.

新値は日足・月足は変わらず。週足は上昇。AI予測は日足、週足は下落、月足は上昇。3LB advanced for day and monthly charts. But it dropped for weekly. AI forecast indicated drop for weekly and daily but upward for monthly.

三菱商事はバフェットが投資を継続するかが全て。Mitsubishi trading all depends on the Buffet's investment stance.

長谷工は新値的には買いのタイミング。Haseko is buy timing from 3LB perspective.

ウクライナの反転攻勢はロシアの抵抗が強いため非常に遅い。西側の支援が永遠に続くとすると、何時かはロシアは敗退するだろう。来年の米大統領選でトランプが返り咲くとロシアに有利になることが懸念される。Ukraine's counter offensive is very slow due to heavy resistance of Russian occupation army. As long as west array's support continues, Russia will lose sometime in future. Now worry is that the resumption of Trump administration at US presidential election next year may drive Russia in good position.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

NKYもSPXも暴落目前ムード満載のチャート。だが、現状ではまだ、米商業用不動産破綻、中国経済破綻から来る経済不安をベースとした大暴落には少し早すぎるだろう。それは、まだ米国ドルのイールドカーブの１０Ｙ－２Ｙが未だマイナスだからだ。暴落はこれがプラ転してから始まるのが常だ。NKY as well as SPX chart is telling that crash is imminent. However it will be a little bit early to be a real crash that originates from US commercial real estate crash as well as China economic crash. It is because US 10Y-2Y yield is still negative. Real crash normally comes after 10Y-2Y comes back to positive number.

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

パウエルは年内のさらなる利上げを示唆したが、不動産市場の暴落に起因する米経済のクラッシュが秋口にも懸念されており、年内の利上げは起こらない可能性が高い。Powell implied another rate hike this year however, imminent real estate bubble crash may trigger whole US market this fall, making interest rate hike very difficult.