AI 株価予測 20240308の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20240308　8306MUFG

果たして天井は来た。NASDAQの牽引銘柄であるNVIDIAは抱き長大陰線で長く続いた上昇相場に終わりを告げた。今週は米国のMSQでもあり、大荒れになりそう。The ceiling has indeed come. NVIDIA, the leading stock on the NASDAQ, signaled the end of its prolonged bullish trend with a large bearish candlestick. This week also marks the MSQ in the United States, and it appears to be highly volatile.

日経平均先物は金曜日終了後も時間外で下げ続け、２０日線に到達した。After the close on Friday, Nikkei 225 futures continued to decline in after-hours trading and reached the 20-day moving average.

今後のメガバンクの上昇率を比較すると、みずほが大きい傾向にあることが分かる。

ただ、今回の上昇が始まってからは、まだMUFGの上昇率が最大となっている。Comparing the future growth rates of mega banks, it becomes apparent that Mizuho tends to have a larger increase.

昨年３月は黒田から交代したばかりの植田がゼロ金利解除を行うと期待されていたのに解除しなかったため急落となった。３日で２０％近く下がり、逃げようがない状況だった。Last March, there was an expectation for Governor Kuroda's successor, Mr. Ueda, who had just taken office, to lift the zero-interest rate policy. However, as this did not happen, the market experienced a sharp decline. Within three days, it dropped by nearly 20%, leaving investors with no escape.

米商業用不動産の下落に伴う地銀破綻の懸念があるが、破綻は地銀に限定される。３月１１日にBTFP（Bank Term Funding Program）が終了する。BTFPマネーサプライの減少を20兆円ほど弱めてきたが、延長されない限り、3月１１日以降は期待できないためリスクは高まる。Concerns about regional bank failures due to the decline in US commercial real estate persist, although such failures are expected to be confined to regional banks. The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) is set to expire on March 11th. While the reduction in BTFP money supply has weakened by about 20 trillion yen, without an extension, expectations for its impact after March 11th are bleak, thus raising risks.

中国株の下落は一旦落ち着いてきている模様。It appears that the decline in Chinese stocks has temporarily eased.

MUFGについては上がり続けた。MUFG continued to rise.

長谷工は下落トレンドに回帰、三菱商事は上昇継続。Haseko reverted to a downtrend, while Mitsubishi Corporation continued its upward trajectory.

半導体ETFは米半導体株のリバウンドに追従せず、SBGは上昇。The semiconductor ETF did not follow the rebound of US semiconductor stocks, while SoftBank Group saw an increase.

ARMは金曜日大きく下落し、ソフトバンクも月曜日は下落するだろう。ARM experienced a significant decline on Friday, and it is likely that SoftBank will also decline on Monday.

三菱重工は上昇継続。Mitsubishi Heavy Industry kept rising.

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は２／３。長期枠利用は4/5。Trade details are here.　2/3　trading limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 4/5.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega banks is more characterized by the uplift of value stocks rather than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega banks have uniformly risen, and not just mega banks but also sectors like construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued and overlooked, have experienced significant surges. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, much like what happened with mega banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The biggest worry of US stock is the crash of US commercial real estate due to remote work, that is not really considered in the market still.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。Underlying impact is coming also from crash of Chinese real estate market. The shrinkage of China money will accelerate the further crash of commercial real estate market globally.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing as COVID relief funds continue to deplete.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The world wide stock market crash stemming from US market crash will happen in few months.

米逆イールドは健在。US reverse yield curve still presents.

現物買いは復活。Cash purchase came back.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE is on recovery trend while USDJPY got intervention.

ドル円は円高。JPY started to be appreciated.

米金利は下落傾向、円金利は上昇。US$ interest rate slid down while JPY interest rate has gone up.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT looks in halt while money stock is on down trend.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。Base Money increase is the result of the unlimited government support against the local banks.

新値は日足・週足・月足とも上昇。AI予測は日足、週足、月足とも上昇。The new 3LB highs are ascending across daily, weekly, and monthly charts. AI predictions indicate an upward trend across the daily, weekly and monthly charts.

三菱商事は年初来高値達成。 MItsubishi achieved all time high.

長谷工は下値抵抗線を破り下降トレンドへ。Haseko has broken through the support line and entered a downtrend.

共和党予備選でトランプ大統領は勝ち進み、大統領選はトランプとバイデンの対決となりそうだ。トランプが大統領となると、世界の警察官は不在となり、軍事力の強い国家が弱い国家を攻め落とす、混沌の時代の始まりとなりそうだ。日本も日米安保条約を解消されれば、ウクライナどころの話ではなくなる。北方領土返還どころでなく、北海道もロシアに侵略・併合されそうだ。よって、日本における軍事力爆増、徴兵制度の復活も現実の話となろう。今年１１月６日の米大統領選は日本にとっても非常に重要な意味を持つ。In the Republican primary, President Trump has been advancing, and it looks like the presidential election will come down to a showdown between Trump and Biden. If Trump becomes president, it seems that the world's police force will be absent, leading to a chaotic era where militarily strong nations may attack weaker ones. For Japan, if the Japan-U.S. security treaty is dissolved, it would pose a serious threat beyond just the issue of Ukraine. It's not just about the return of the Northern Territories; even Hokkaido could be invaded and annexed by Russia. Therefore, the talk of a significant increase in Japan's military power and the revival of conscription might become a reality. The U.S. presidential election on November 6th this year holds very significant implications for Japan as well.

平和を唱えているだけで平和が来ると信じている多くの日本人がパニックに陥るのも時間の問題だ。It's only a matter of time before many Japanese, who believe that peace will come simply by advocating for it, fall into panic.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

今回の下落がどこまで掘るか。昨年のケースだと、全治３か月。How far this downturn will go remains uncertain. Based on last year's case, the recovery period could be around three months.

３か月でも戻るか、米株の全面崩壊で全治５年になるか。米株がハードランディングする理由はいくつもある。コロナ給付預金の枯渇、失業率の立ち上がり、不動産崩壊開始、地銀連続破綻と政府支援の限界、中国経済破綻で世界GDPの激減、もしトラ不安などなど。なんせ、米国のコロナ支援はGDPの２５％だったことが重要。この異常な刺激策の副作用はリーマンショック後の中銀BS拡大に加えて未知の世界。It could rebound within three months, or if there's a complete collapse of the US stock market, it could take five years for recovery. There are several reasons why the US stock market could experience a hard landing, such as the depletion of coronavirus relief funds, rising unemployment rates, the beginning of a real estate collapse, consecutive failures of regional banks reaching the limits of government support, a sharp decline in global GDP due to the collapse of the Chinese economy, and geopolitical tensions. After all, the fact that US coronavirus relief amounted to 25% of GDP is significant. The side effects of this abnormal stimulus package, added to the expansion of central bank balance sheets after the Lehman shock, lead to an unknown territory.

ハードランディングを防ぐためにパウエルが逆イールド解消まで利下げすると、皮肉にも、ハードランディング開始の狼煙となる。ハードランディングのもう一つのトリガーである失業率が実質上昇傾向にあるが、しかしこのタイミングで利下げすると、インフレを２％以下にできないジレンマ。Ironically, if Powell lowers interest rates until the yield curve inversion is resolved to prevent a hard landing, it may ironically signal the beginning of the hard landing. Another trigger for a hard landing is the upward trend in the unemployment rate, but lowering interest rates at this point creates a dilemma of not being able to keep inflation below 2%.

３月９月は外人売りが出やすいアノマリーも。March and September tend to see anomalies where foreign selling is more likely.

一方、ＡＩハイテクの物語は、未だ、最終消費者までのサイクルが完成しておらず、まだ物語ベースでの買いが続いていた。NVIDIAも、データセンター向けのサイクルだけでは成長に限界があるのを自ら示している。On the other hand, the AI high-tech narrative hasn't fully completed its cycle to reach the end consumer, and buying based on the narrative continues. NVIDIA, for example, has shown that growth is limited solely to the data center cycle.

植田は基本、国民生活より供給者側を支援するアベノミクス側の人。通貨の番人など、とっくに返上している。いくら緩和してもインフレにならなかった日本をインフレにしてくれた円安を、やすやすと手放すことは無いかも。株価の本格崩壊が始まったら、異次元緩和の延長もあるか。もしくは、解除後もカーブ実質介入しまくり等々。Mr. Ueda fundamentally supports the supply side of Abenomics rather than the livelihoods of the citizens. He has long since given up the role of currency guardian, among others. It's possible that he won't easily give up the yen depreciation that brought inflation to Japan, which had failed to materialize no matter how much easing was done. If a full-scale collapse in stock prices begins, there may be an extension of unconventional easing measures. Alternatively, there could be continued substantial intervention in the yield curve even after the tapering.

色々考えると、不確定要素満載で、次のトレンドが現れるまで一旦手じまいという人も多いだろう。With so many uncertainties, many people might choose to sit on the sidelines until the next trend emerges.

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

FOMCでのパウエルの至極まともな答弁を利下げのサインと市場は曲解し、パーティーを始めた。The markets misinterpreted Powell's very reasonable responses during the FOMC as a signal for interest rate cuts and began celebrating prematurely.