AI 株価予測 20240726の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast -20240726

円高が一時１５１円台まで進行し、日経平均は一時３７５００円台まで大きく下落した。３週間前の高値４２５００円から一時５０００円近い下落となった。NY株も同時に下落している。The yen briefly strengthened to the 151 yen level, causing the Nikkei 225 to plunge to the 37,500 range. This represents a nearly 5,000-point drop from the high of 42,500 three weeks ago. Simultaneously, NY stocks have also declined.

先々週全ポジションは売却しており、１週間の間、ただ株価が下落するのを見ていた。金曜日になり、NYダウが大きく戻ったため、底入れと見る参加者も多い。MUFGの新値は日足が陰転。I sold all positions two weeks ago and have spent the past week watching stock prices fall. On Friday, the NY Dow made a significant rebound, leading many participants to see this as a bottom. MUFG's new daily candlestick has turned bearish.

ドル円の財務省による介入はまだまだ行われる可能性が高い。大きな円安の流れを壊すまであと５円程に迫っており、今月退任する神田財務官が最後の介入を行うかに注目。The Ministry of Finance's intervention in the USD/JPY exchange rate is likely to continue. The yen is now only about 5 yen away from breaking the major trend of depreciation, and there is interest in whether Kanda, the retiring Finance Minister, will make a final intervention this month.

来週は７／３１日水曜日に日銀金利決定会合、８／１木曜日にMUFGのQ1決算発表とFOMC、８／２金曜日に米失業率と重要指標発表の目白押し。Next week is packed with key events: the BOJ interest rate decision meeting on Wednesday (7/31), MUFG's Q1 earnings announcement and the FOMC on Thursday (8/1), and the US unemployment rate and other critical indicators on Friday (8/2).

ドル円が円安に復帰し、FOMCで米利下げがあり、日銀金利決定会合で利上げおよび国債買い入れ減額が発表され、NY株が底入れし、日経平均が上昇し、MUFGのQ1決算結果が良ければMUFG株は間違いなく上昇するだろう。If the yen returns to a weakening trend, the FOMC results in a US rate cut, the BOJ announces a rate hike and a reduction in bond purchases, NY stocks find a bottom, the Nikkei 225 rises, and MUFG's Q1 earnings are positive, MUFG's stock will undoubtedly rise.

ただ、そうでない場合、最悪、つぎのテクニカルポイントへ向け、MUFG株は下落が継続する。However, if these conditions are not met, MUFG's stock could continue to decline towards the next technical support level.

選挙戦から降りたバイデンの後継にはハリスが指名され、民主党大会で承認される模様。対トランプ支持率は６０対４０まで回復したが、２０％差を１１月５日までに埋められるか。Harris has been nominated as Biden's successor after he withdrew from the election race and is expected to be approved at the Democratic National Convention. Although support against Trump has recovered to 60-40, can the 20% gap be closed by November 5th?

メガバンク各社は各々、チャート上の抵抗線まで下落。Each of the megabanks has declined to the resistance line on their respective charts.

新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.

中国株は年初から再上昇を始めているが、不動産問題が更に火を噴く可能性が高く、一時的な戻りと考えられる。Chinese stocks have been rebounding since the beginning of the year, but there is a high possibility of further escalation of the real estate issue, suggesting a temporary rebound.

半導体は急落後、自律反発。Semiconductor stocks have experienced a self-correcting rebound after a sharp decline.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

今週は雇用統計など、米経済減速を示す経済指標の発表が相次いだ。来週は、木曜日のインフレ率発表。This week saw the release of various economic indicators pointing to a slowdown in the U.S. economy, including employment statistics. Next week, the inflation rate will be announced on Thursday.

決算は山場を越えた。日経平均EPSに大きな変化はなかった。The earnings season has peaked. There was no significant change in the Nikkei 225's EPS.

US＄は未だ100bpの逆イールド状態。日本円は100bpの順イールド。The US dollar is still in a 100bp reverse yield curve, while the Japanese yen has a 100bp forward yield curve.

米金利はFOMCの慎重姿勢を反映して下落停止、日本の金利は植田の国会コメントを反映して上昇基調。U.S. interest rates have paused their decline reflecting the cautious stance of the FOMC, while Japanese interest rates are on an upward trend reflecting comments from Ueda in the Diet.

外国人投資家が売り越し転換。買っているのは個人信用だけという悪いパターン。

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

米逆イールドは健在。The US reverse yield curve remains intact.

ドル円は米CPI直後からの介入を受けて円高に振れたが、上昇トレンドを崩すまでは行わなかった。財務省もヘッジファンドではないということだろう。The yen strengthened against the dollar following intervention shortly after the release of the U.S. CPI, but it did not break the upward trend. It seems the Ministry of Finance is not acting like a hedge fund.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

長谷工は下落トレンドに復帰。Haseko went back to down-trend.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

三菱重工は大きく下落したが上昇トレンドで一旦下げ止まっている。Mitsubishi Heavy Industries saw a significant decline, but it has temporarily halted its fall within the upward trend.

ウクライナは時刻開発の長距離ドローン、FPVドローン、欧米供与の長距離ミサイル、により善戦しているが、ロシアは膨大な戦死者を厭わずに執拗に侵略を僅かずつ拡大している。トランプが幸運にも暗殺を免れ神格化されたヒーローとなってしまったうえ、バイデンの健康が支持率を妨げている今、１１月の大統領選はトランプに大きく傾いている。その結果、ウクライナの将来、ひいては、グローバルな安全の枠組みには暗雲が立ち込めている。一方、ロシアの戦争を仕掛けた国内の犠牲も限界に近付きつつある。Ukraine is putting up a good fight using domestically developed long-range drones, FPV drones, and long-range missiles supplied by Western countries. However, Russia is persistently expanding its invasion little by little, showing no concern for the massive number of casualties. With Trump narrowly escaping assassination and becoming a deified hero, and Biden's health hindering his approval ratings, the November presidential election is heavily tilted in Trump's favor. As a result, dark clouds are looming over Ukraine's future and the global security framework. On the other hand, the domestic toll of Russia's war efforts is also nearing its limit.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

米国株はトランプの暗殺未遂を経て、ダウも上場来高値を実現した。

今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.