AI 株価予測 20240726の状況8306MUFG
Stock Price AI Forecast -20240726
円高が一時151円台まで進行し、日経平均は一時37500円台まで大きく下落した。3週間前の高値42500円から一時5000円近い下落となった。NY株も同時に下落している。The yen briefly strengthened to the 151 yen level, causing the Nikkei 225 to plunge to the 37,500 range. This represents a nearly 5,000-point drop from the high of 42,500 three weeks ago. Simultaneously, NY stocks have also declined.
先々週全ポジションは売却しており、1週間の間、ただ株価が下落するのを見ていた。金曜日になり、NYダウが大きく戻ったため、底入れと見る参加者も多い。MUFGの新値は日足が陰転。I sold all positions two weeks ago and have spent the past week watching stock prices fall. On Friday, the NY Dow made a significant rebound, leading many participants to see this as a bottom. MUFG's new daily candlestick has turned bearish.
ドル円の財務省による介入はまだまだ行われる可能性が高い。大きな円安の流れを壊すまであと5円程に迫っており、今月退任する神田財務官が最後の介入を行うかに注目。The Ministry of Finance's intervention in the USD/JPY exchange rate is likely to continue. The yen is now only about 5 yen away from breaking the major trend of depreciation, and there is interest in whether Kanda, the retiring Finance Minister, will make a final intervention this month.
来週は7/31日水曜日に日銀金利決定会合、8/1木曜日にMUFGのQ1決算発表とFOMC、8/2金曜日に米失業率と重要指標発表の目白押し。Next week is packed with key events: the BOJ interest rate decision meeting on Wednesday (7/31), MUFG's Q1 earnings announcement and the FOMC on Thursday (8/1), and the US unemployment rate and other critical indicators on Friday (8/2).
ドル円が円安に復帰し、FOMCで米利下げがあり、日銀金利決定会合で利上げおよび国債買い入れ減額が発表され、NY株が底入れし、日経平均が上昇し、MUFGのQ1決算結果が良ければMUFG株は間違いなく上昇するだろう。If the yen returns to a weakening trend, the FOMC results in a US rate cut, the BOJ announces a rate hike and a reduction in bond purchases, NY stocks find a bottom, the Nikkei 225 rises, and MUFG's Q1 earnings are positive, MUFG's stock will undoubtedly rise.
ただ、そうでない場合、最悪、つぎのテクニカルポイントへ向け、MUFG株は下落が継続する。However, if these conditions are not met, MUFG's stock could continue to decline towards the next technical support level.
選挙戦から降りたバイデンの後継にはハリスが指名され、民主党大会で承認される模様。対トランプ支持率は60対40まで回復したが、20%差を11月5日までに埋められるか。Harris has been nominated as Biden's successor after he withdrew from the election race and is expected to be approved at the Democratic National Convention. Although support against Trump has recovered to 60-40, can the 20% gap be closed by November 5th?
メガバンク各社は各々、チャート上の抵抗線まで下落。Each of the megabanks has declined to the resistance line on their respective charts.
新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.
中国株は年初から再上昇を始めているが、不動産問題が更に火を噴く可能性が高く、一時的な戻りと考えられる。Chinese stocks have been rebounding since the beginning of the year, but there is a high possibility of further escalation of the real estate issue, suggesting a temporary rebound.
米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.
根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.
米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.
米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.
今週は雇用統計など、米経済減速を示す経済指標の発表が相次いだ。来週は、木曜日のインフレ率発表。This week saw the release of various economic indicators pointing to a slowdown in the U.S. economy, including employment statistics. Next week, the inflation rate will be announced on Thursday.
決算は山場を越えた。日経平均EPSに大きな変化はなかった。The earnings season has peaked. There was no significant change in the Nikkei 225's EPS.
長谷工は下落トレンドに復帰。Haseko went back to down-trend.
米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10&SPX, NKY
米国株はトランプの暗殺未遂を経て、ダウも上場来高値を実現した。
今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.
中国株は反発するも未だ復活していない。不動産不況から始まるバブル崩壊はまだ始まったばかりかもしれない。Chinese stocks have rebounded but have yet to recover. The bursting of the bubble, starting with the real estate recession, might have only just begun.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjblUy9uIpT4WBexI0ydK1BslrhMiFeUhaz-3jd4Sud1t4lFlp8fhFuGE6JAfPMa40lrGKDJ-FFI7AGmmJcKE3CznBce8DyflmpPlfkpT9Goq8pXl3nz9RQB6RvpKigIdlzWBnXKUWxCv2rLbS4wgK_9QkiZV4RpTS433qdlAKJw_mqmLUcues2TTZ0Dqk/w501-h284/chinaHshare20240517.jpg)
NY株は景気後退のシグナルが其処ここに出ているのを無視して、パウエルの利下げとM7のみの好況を理由に上昇しているが、これがいつまでも続くわけはない。Despite various signs of an economic downturn, NY stocks are rising, driven by Powell's interest rate cuts and the strong performance of the M7 companies. However, this cannot continue indefinitely.
NYのVIXは下落。NY VIX has gone down.
FEAR&GREEDは中立強欲へ戻る。Fear&Greed has gone back to greed.
中国株は反発するも未だ復活していない。不動産不況から始まるバブル崩壊はまだ始まったばかりかもしれない。Chinese stocks have rebounded but have yet to recover. The bursting of the bubble, starting with the real estate recession, might have only just begun.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjblUy9uIpT4WBexI0ydK1BslrhMiFeUhaz-3jd4Sud1t4lFlp8fhFuGE6JAfPMa40lrGKDJ-FFI7AGmmJcKE3CznBce8DyflmpPlfkpT9Goq8pXl3nz9RQB6RvpKigIdlzWBnXKUWxCv2rLbS4wgK_9QkiZV4RpTS433qdlAKJw_mqmLUcues2TTZ0Dqk/w501-h284/chinaHshare20240517.jpg)
NY株は景気後退のシグナルが其処ここに出ているのを無視して、パウエルの利下げとM7のみの好況を理由に上昇しているが、これがいつまでも続くわけはない。Despite various signs of an economic downturn, NY stocks are rising, driven by Powell's interest rate cuts and the strong performance of the M7 companies. However, this cannot continue indefinitely.
NYのVIXは下落。NY VIX has gone down.
FEAR&GREEDは中立強欲へ戻る。Fear&Greed has gone back to greed.
米金利の今後 US FF rate forecast
米インフレの鎮静化は一時停止状態で、失業率は低下し、景気はまだ強く、インフレ圧力の復活の可能性も秘めているように見える。これがパウエルが利下げを早期に行えない原因。The pacification of US inflation remains suspended, and with a decrease in the unemployment rate and continued strong economy, there seems to be a possibility of a resurgence of inflation pressure. This is the reason why Powell cannot cut interest rates early.