AI 株価予測 20240719の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast -20240719

先週に引き続き今週も大波乱が続いた。NYダウが上場来高値を付ける急上昇をしたと思うと、大陰線を付けて下落。ドル円為替介入は終了したかと思うと、更なる上昇トレンドを割る円高下落。MUFGは回復基調かと思うと、急落。Following last week, this week has also been full of major surprises. Just when it seemed that the NY Dow was soaring to an all-time high, it plummeted with a large bearish candlestick. After it seemed like the intervention in the USD/JPY exchange rate had ended, the yen appreciated sharply, breaking the upward trend. MUFG appeared to be on a recovery trend, only to suddenly drop sharply.

一旦ポジションを全て解消した結果、７月中の上昇分が吹き飛んでしまった。チャートを見ての反省点は、As a result of liquidating all positions, all gains made in July have been wiped out. Reflecting on the charts, the key points are:

「６月末からの急上昇トレンドを明確に外れた段階で、ポジションを直ちに解消しなかった」点。"Failing to immediately liquidate positions when it was clear that the sharp upward trend from the end of June had been broken."
また途中で解消し、再度参入した際に、「下落トレンドからの明確な離脱を待たず、レベル感で参入した」点。"Re-entering without waiting for a clear break from the downward trend, merely based on perceived levels."

フィボナッチなどのレベル感で参入し、ナンピンしていく方法は調整の深さが読めないため、やはり「参入に当たっては下落トレンド離脱を確認する必要」あり。Entering based on perceived levels, such as Fibonacci levels, and averaging down is not effective because the depth of correction is unpredictable. Therefore, it's necessary to confirm the break from the downward trend before entering.

バイデンがついに大統領選撤退を決断。候補者はハリス。Biden finally decided to drop out of presidential race. Vice president Kamala Harris was appointed as successor.

メガバンク各社は下落した。三井住友は上昇チャネル内には留まっている。The megabanks all fell, though Sumitomo Mitsui remained within its upward channel.

新値日足は全て上昇。AI予測は日足、週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily highs are all rising. The AI prediction shows an increase in daily and weekly charts, while the monthly chart is predicted to decline.

中国株は年初から再上昇を始めているが、不動産問題が更に火を噴く可能性が高く、一時的な戻りと考えられる。Chinese stocks have been rebounding since the beginning of the year, but there is a high possibility of further escalation of the real estate issue, suggesting a temporary rebound.

半導体は急落後、自律反発。Semiconductor stocks have experienced a self-correcting rebound after a sharp decline.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

今週は雇用統計など、米経済減速を示す経済指標の発表が相次いだ。来週は、木曜日のインフレ率発表。This week saw the release of various economic indicators pointing to a slowdown in the U.S. economy, including employment statistics. Next week, the inflation rate will be announced on Thursday.

決算は山場を越えた。日経平均EPSに大きな変化はなかった。The earnings season has peaked. There was no significant change in the Nikkei 225's EPS.

US＄は未だ100bpの逆イールド状態。日本円は100bpの順イールド。The US dollar is still in a 100bp reverse yield curve, while the Japanese yen has a 100bp forward yield curve.

米金利はFOMCの慎重姿勢を反映して下落停止、日本の金利は植田の国会コメントを反映して上昇基調。U.S. interest rates have paused their decline reflecting the cautious stance of the FOMC, while Japanese interest rates are on an upward trend reflecting comments from Ueda in the Diet.

外国人投資家が買い越し継続。Foreign investors remains as net buyers.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

米逆イールドは健在。The US reverse yield curve remains intact.

ドル円は米CPI直後からの介入を受けて円高に振れたが、上昇トレンドを崩すまでは行わなかった。財務省もヘッジファンドではないということだろう。The yen strengthened against the dollar following intervention shortly after the release of the U.S. CPI, but it did not break the upward trend. It seems the Ministry of Finance is not acting like a hedge fund.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

長谷工は下落トレンドに復帰。Haseko went back to down-trend.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

三菱重工は大きく下落したが上昇トレンドで一旦下げ止まっている。Mitsubishi Heavy Industries saw a significant decline, but it has temporarily halted its fall within the upward trend.

ウクライナは時刻開発の長距離ドローン、FPVドローン、欧米供与の長距離ミサイル、により善戦しているが、ロシアは膨大な戦死者を厭わずに執拗に侵略を僅かずつ拡大している。トランプが幸運にも暗殺を免れ神格化されたヒーローとなってしまったうえ、バイデンの健康が支持率を妨げている今、１１月の大統領選はトランプに大きく傾いている。その結果、ウクライナの将来、ひいては、グローバルな安全の枠組みには暗雲が立ち込めている。一方、ロシアの戦争を仕掛けた国内の犠牲も限界に近付きつつある。Ukraine is putting up a good fight using domestically developed long-range drones, FPV drones, and long-range missiles supplied by Western countries. However, Russia is persistently expanding its invasion little by little, showing no concern for the massive number of casualties. With Trump narrowly escaping assassination and becoming a deified hero, and Biden's health hindering his approval ratings, the November presidential election is heavily tilted in Trump's favor. As a result, dark clouds are looming over Ukraine's future and the global security framework. On the other hand, the domestic toll of Russia's war efforts is also nearing its limit.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

米国株はトランプの暗殺未遂を経て、ダウも上場来高値を実現した。

今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.