AI 株価予測 20240705の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast -20240705

先週に続き、今週も先週の上昇トレンドに沿って上昇を続けた。これは、日経平均の上場来高値再挑戦相場に便乗した形になっている。ＭＵＦＧは週末時点で２００６年の高値にワンタッチ後反落した。Following last week, this week also saw continued upward movement along the previous week's upward trend. This is in line with the rally in the Nikkei Average towards its all-time high. At the end of the week, MUFG touched its 2006 high before falling back.

ＭＵＦＧは上昇を見て２日火曜日に１／１０（合計５／１０）、三菱重工は更なる上昇を見て３日水曜日に１／２０（合計１／１０）、長谷工、ＪＦＥは配当利回りが４．５％であり今後市場全体が上昇するとの期待から２日３日に合計１／２０買った。In response to MUFG's rise, on Tuesday the 2nd, I bought 1/10 (bringing the total to 5/10), and seeing further rise in Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, I bought 1/20 (totaling 1/10) on Wednesday the 3rd. I also bought 1/20 of Haseko and JFE on the 2nd and 3rd in anticipation of overall market growth, as their dividend yields are 4.5%.

来週は８日月曜日と１０日水曜日がETFの利払資金捻出売りが相当額あり、また、オプション市場もPUTが激増しているため、下落が予想される。ただ、TOPIXは既にネックラインを越え、上場来高値を大きく更新しているため、全体としての上昇基調には変化はないと考えられる。来週大きく下落した場合は、拾っていきたい。Next week, there is expected to be significant selling to secure funds for ETF interest payments on Monday the 8th and Wednesday the 10th. Additionally, with a surge in PUT options in the options market, a decline is anticipated. However, since TOPIX has already surpassed its neckline and significantly updated its all-time high, the overall upward trend is expected to continue. If there is a significant drop next week, I plan to buy.

米景気の後退は鮮明になりつつあり、９月の利下げ開始の確度は高まっている。逆イールドが発生するまでは米株は上昇すると考えられるため、９月までは米株の上昇は続くだろう。The U.S. economy is showing clearer signs of a slowdown, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut beginning in September. U.S. stocks are expected to rise until an inverted yield curve occurs, so U.S. stocks should continue to rise until September.

先々週のバイデン・トランプの討論会でのバイデン健康不安からトランプが当選する確率が上がったため、日本は自主防衛を迫られるとの思惑から三菱重工など防衛関連銘柄が上昇している。In the debate between Biden and Trump the week before last, concerns about Biden's health increased the likelihood of Trump's election, leading to a rise in defense-related stocks such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries due to expectations of Japan needing to strengthen its own defense.

AI株予測は月足以外は上昇。月足の下落予想はかなり不気味。The AI stock prediction indicates a rise except on the monthly chart. The monthly chart's decline prediction is quite ominous.

TOPIXは上場来高値をすでに更新しているため、日経平均の今回の４１０００再挑戦は多分成功すると考えられる。Since TOPIX has already updated its all-time high, it is likely that the Nikkei Average will succeed in its challenge of 41,000.

メガバンク各社は上昇トレンド継続。Mega banks continued rising.

新値日足は全て上昇。AI予測は日足、週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily highs are all rising. The AI prediction shows an increase in daily and weekly charts, while the monthly chart is predicted to decline.

中国株は年初から再上昇を始めているが、不動産問題が更に火を噴く可能性が高く、一時的な戻りと考えられる。Chinese stocks have been rebounding since the beginning of the year, but there is a high possibility of further escalation of the real estate issue, suggesting a temporary rebound.

半導体は急落後、自律反発。Semiconductor stocks have experienced a self-correcting rebound after a sharp decline.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

今週は雇用統計など、米経済減速を示す経済指標の発表が相次いだ。来週は、木曜日のインフレ率発表。This week saw the release of various economic indicators pointing to a slowdown in the U.S. economy, including employment statistics. Next week, the inflation rate will be announced on Thursday.

今月のハイライトは、日銀の金利決定会合。今後のQTのスケジュールが発表される。The highlight of this month is the BOJ’s interest rate decision meeting, where the schedule for future QT will be announced.

決算は山場を越えた。日経平均EPSに大きな変化はなかった。The earnings season has peaked. There was no significant change in the Nikkei 225's EPS.

US＄は未だ100bpの逆イールド状態。日本円は100bpの順イールド。The US dollar is still in a 100bp reverse yield curve, while the Japanese yen has a 100bp forward yield curve.

米金利はFOMCの慎重姿勢を反映して下落停止、日本の金利は植田の国会コメントを反映して上昇基調。U.S. interest rates have paused their decline reflecting the cautious stance of the FOMC, while Japanese interest rates are on an upward trend reflecting comments from Ueda in the Diet.

外国人投資家が買い越しに転じた。自己売買部門も買い越し。Foreign investors have turned to net buyers. The proprietary trading department is also net buying.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

米逆イールドは健在。The US reverse yield curve remains intact.

ドル円は先の１０兆円規模の介入以来再び１６０円を目指してじり高であったが、米金利の低下により円高に反転。その後また利上げ長期化を想定して円安になっている。Since the recent 10 trillion yen intervention, the USD/JPY gradually rose, aiming for 160 yen. However, it reversed to yen appreciation due to the decline in U.S. interest rates. Subsequently, the yen weakened again, anticipating prolonged rate hikes.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

三菱商事は減益予想で下落。Mitsubishi Corporation is experiencing a decline due to forecasted lower profits.

長谷工は下落トレンドに復帰。Haseko went back to down-trend.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

三菱重工はトランプ再選の可能性が高まったとの認識が広まり高値を追った。Mitsubishi heavy industry went up anticipating the higher probability of Trump's return to the US president.

ウクライナ支援の米議会承認はようやく成立した。武器は前線に届きつつあり、劣勢を回復しつつあるようだ。The approval from the US Congress for aid to Ukraine has finally been achieved. Weapons are beginning to reach the front lines, and it seems that the Ukrainian forces are gradually regaining their footing.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

米国株はハイテク主導で戻ってきたが、ここにきて伸びがハイテクからハイテク以外に移りつつある。US stocks have returned, led by high-tech, but recently the growth seems to be shifting from high-tech to non-high-tech sectors.

今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.