非農業部門雇用者数（9月）の謎The Mystery of September’s Nonfarm Payroll Numbers
非農業部門雇用者 数（2024年9月）が発表された。８月の増加１５９Kを大幅に上回る２４５Kとなった。市場は、米経済は強いと大喜び。長期金利は上昇し、ドル円は上昇。日経平均先物及びADRも暴騰、米株も上場来高値更新へ向かい動き始めた。The Nonfarm Payroll Employment figures for September 2024 were released, showing an increase of 245K, far exceeding the 159K gain seen in August. The market rejoiced, interpreting this as a sign of a robust U.S. economy. Long-term interest rates rose, the USD/JPY exchange rate increased, and both Nikkei futures and ADRs skyrocketed. U.S. stocks also began moving towards new all-time highs.
ところが、元のデータTable B-1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail（https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf）によると、発表値はSeasonally adjusted。更に見ると、政府の９１．８万人増（ほとんど教育関連）は３万人に調整されているが、「民間の４５．８万人減少が２２．３万人の増加に調整」されている！！どんな修正を行ったのか？？？？これは修正と呼べるのか？？民間雇用がマイナスなのにプラスになるので、非常にポイントとなる。公表時に詳しく説明があってしかるべき。However, upon examining the original data from Table B-1: Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls by Industry Sector and Selected Industry Detail (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf), it turns out that the released figure is seasonally adjusted. Digging further, it becomes clear that while government employment increased by 918K (mostly in education), it was adjusted down to 30K. Meanwhile, private sector employment, which saw a decrease of 458K, was adjusted upwards to show an increase of 223K! What kind of adjustments were made here? Can this even be called an adjustment? It’s crucial to note this point: private employment, which was actually negative, has been reported as positive. There should have been a detailed explanation at the time of the announcement.
雇用統計は今年１１月の大統領選への忖度など、様々な要因によって操縦されるようだ。ほとぼりが冷めた１年後に「実は．．．」などと言って修正されるのだろうが、現在はこのコンセンサスのまま市場は走り始めているのでついていくしかないだろう。It seems the employment statistics are being manipulated by various factors, possibly including considerations for the upcoming presidential election in November. A year later, after the dust has settled, we might hear, "Actually...," followed by revisions, but for now, the market is running with this consensus, and we have no choice but to follow.
