AI 株価予測 20250328の状況
8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast -20250328

MUFGが火曜日急騰を開始したので、買い増し。同時に三菱商事、長谷工も若干買う。総投資額は１／４から１／３に増加。MUFGの急騰は、２０００円台への突入を見せつける目的もあった印象。ブラックロックの保有が増えた様子。このまま２６００台に突っ走るためには相場全体の上昇は必須。ただ、指数の月足のトレンドからの下方向への離脱の事実からは逃れられず、４月から下落する模様で、現在のポジションも４月早々に売却する可能性が高い。MUFG started to rally on Tuesday, prompting me to increase my holdings. At the same time, I slightly added to positions in Mitsubishi Corporation and Haseko. The total investment amount increased from one-fourth to one-third of the limit. MUFG's sharp rise seemed to signal a move into the ¥2,000 range, with indications that BlackRock has increased its holdings. However, for MUFG to push further into the ¥2,600 range, an overall market rise is essential. Still, the downtrend in the monthly index chart cannot be ignored, and the market is expected to decline starting in April. As a result, the current positions may likely be sold off in early April.

今週の目玉はFOMCと日銀の現状維持判断と、FOMCの景気予測変更。FOMCはGDP予測を２．１％から１．７％に、コアインフレを２．５％から２．８％に変更。インフレ亢進、景気減退を予測している。GDPNowはいまだマイナスGDPを予測。来週は水曜日、耐久財受注、木曜日、GDP成長率、金曜日コアＰＣＥと続き、再来週火曜日にはＩＳＭとＪＯＬＴＳがある。数値の悪化が全体的となってくるのは４月以降ではないか。それまでは、トランプ関税の影響が主なマイナス要因。相場全体として、テクニカル的には、下落相場の中の中間反騰として、週末までは反発し、４月以降再下落を開始する予想。This week’s focus is on the FOMC and the Bank of Japan maintaining their policies, as well as changes in the FOMC’s economic forecasts. The FOMC revised its GDP growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.7% and core inflation from 2.5% to 2.8%, predicting higher inflation and slower economic growth. GDPNow continues to project negative GDP growth. Next week’s key data includes durable goods orders on Wednesday, GDP growth rate on Thursday, and core PCE on Friday. The following week, ISM and JOLTS data will be released on Tuesday. A more pronounced deterioration in economic indicators is expected from April onwards, with the primary negative factor until then being the impact of Trump-era tariffs. From a technical perspective, the market is likely to see a rebound this week as part of an intermediate rally within a broader downtrend, with further declines expected to resume in April.

現状、総投資限度の１／３程度の配当重視（配当３％平均）のポジション損益は、７％程度プラス。MUFG（２．７％）、長谷工（４．３％）、三菱商事（３．６％）、村田製作所（２．１％）、トヨタ（３．２％）、金ＥＴＦ、他。Currently, dividend-focused positions (with an average dividend yield of 3%) account for about one-third of the total investment limit and are showing a profit of approximately 7%. Holdings include MUFG (2.7%), Haseko (4.3%), Mitsubishi Corporation (3.6%), Murata Manufacturing (2.1%), Toyota (3.2%), a gold ETF, and others.

日銀金利決定会合では利上げなしが大方の予想。

IMMは円買いに転換。IMM switched back to JPY buy.

海外勢は売りが継続、個人が買う悪い展開に。Foreigh investors are selling while Japanese investors are buying. This is not a good pattern.

新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

現状日銀は７００兆円近くの国債を買い入れており、これは国債発行残高の６割近く。このうち６兆円が毎月満期になるため、月額６兆円を買い入れている。このため、月額買入を３兆円に減額すると１年間に３６兆円のQTとなる。全保有額を放出するには２０年近くかかるため、それまでは廃止したと言いながら継続しているYCCが続くことになる。これが国債が売られた背景。 Currently, the Bank of Japan holds nearly 700 trillion yen in government bonds, which is close to 60% of the total government bond issuance. Of this amount, 6 trillion yen matures every month, leading the BOJ to purchase 6 trillion yen monthly. Therefore, reducing the monthly purchases to 3 trillion yen results in a QT of 36 trillion yen annually. It would take nearly 20 years to completely unwind their holdings, so despite announcing the end of yield curve control (YCC), it effectively continues. This is why government bonds are being sold off.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

長谷工は下落トレンドから復帰。Haseko showed exit from down-trend.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

トランプはウクライナ問題の早期解決をプーチンと話し合う予定。ヨーロッパとウクライナは蚊帳の外。最悪の展開が待っている模様。Trump is going to talk Putin on the early resolution of Ukraine problem. Neither Europe nor Ukraine were invited. Worst case scenario is now expected.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

米国株はサームルール発動により景気後退入りが確実となった。

今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.