日本株2019年７月
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超長期トレンド
- 日本株時価の現状の総額概算は400兆円、アメリカは３０年で５倍の3,000兆円
- 世界最大の債権国になり、貿易収支減少分は所得収支でカバーされている
- 少子化で日本の内需はダウンサイジング傾向
- 日本株は主要参加者である外国人の投資行動により方向性が決される
現状
- アベノミクスによる円安誘導で救われた輸出企業の増益増配銘柄が増加
- PER, PBRが大幅に改善
- マイナス金利政策と配当利回増大でイールドスプレッドは拡大し株価を維持
- チャート上は、バブル以降の下降レンジからは脱却している
不安要因
- 円高に大きく振れた場合、景気後退が加速するか
- 中国の停滞と米中貿易摩擦による世界的な減速感
- 米国株は更なる利下げでバブル拡大
- 中国減速により電子部品供給銘柄は受注激減。
- チャート的には３段上げを終了し、いつ大きな調整が来てもおかしくない
2019年末までの可能性
トランプに協力する米中銀がQE清算を先延ばしにして利下げに走っている。すでに高値の米国株がさらに高値になる可能性があり、その場合は、日本株も追従するかもしれない。ただ中国の急激な減速がさらに続くと、日本株の下値を支えているバリュエーションが毀損され、日経平均は再度１万５千円台となる可能性もあるが、そうなったらそのレベルは買いだろう。
Japan Stock July 2019
Roughly did an overview on Japan stock transition half century from oil shock up to 2019 Jul. Impressive to see that all the history are reflected to the stock chart, from "Japan as number one" period to current Japan on the edge.
Long term Trend
- Current Japanese stock market cap is roughly jpy400tr while US has jpy3,000tr, times 5 increase in 30 yrs.
- Japan became the world largest creditor while reduction of trade balance is well offset by the increase of income from oversea investment.
- Domestic consumption is on down-trend due to down-sizing of population.
- Japanese stock market nowadays is led by foreign investors as major market participants.
Current
- Increased number of companies with increased profit and dividends thanks to cheaper yen led by Abenomics.
- PBR and PER valuations improved a lot as a result.
- Expanded yield spread is supporting price as a result of negative interest rate policy as well as increasing dividends.
- From stock chart, it looks like Japan had already exit from down trend range after bubble burst.
Uncertainties
- Economy may go sluggish if yen swing down to significant appreciation.
- Global slow-down of economy due to China and its trade friction with US.
- Further expansion of bubble of US stock due to rate cut.
- Electric parts providers are expecting significant sales drop due to slow down of China.
- Chart just completed 3 steps up and now looks ready to have major correction anytime.
US central bank is heading towards rate cut to cooperate Trump administration although they actually wanted to start QE(Quantitative Easing) exit as soon as possible. This may make US stock further higher, then Japan stock may follow the same. However China's rapid slow-down may undermine the valuation of Japanese stock that supports current price level. If that happens, Nikkei may head down to 15K level however, that will be the time to buy.