AI 株価予測 20220729の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220729 Status 8306MUFG

 AI 株価予測 20220729の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220729 Status 8306MUFG

下降レンジ上値を突破し、新たな短期上昇トレンドに乗った。Now on new short term upward range trend by breaking the upper resistance of downward range trend.

AI予測は日足、週足、月足ともに下落。For AI forecast, daily, weekly and monthly are all downward. 

米銀株は反発継続。米10年債利回りは2.7%と下落継続。US bank stocks continued rebound. Meanwhile, US 10 year treasury rate went down to 2.7% level. 

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は4/4。長期保有は1/4。Trade details are here. 4/4 limit holding at the point of weekend with 1/4 for long term holding position. 

来週８月２日は四半期決算発表日。減益予想。短期上昇トレンドからの離脱に注意。765を超えてくると、中期上昇トレンド復帰か。Aug 2nd next week is the day Qtrly result will be announced. Earning down is expected. Need to watch for the exit from short term upward trend. If price goes higher than 765, it may indicate the resumption of upward mid-term trend.

三菱商事は底値形成中。Mitsubishi trading looks creating bottom. 

長谷工は上昇トレンド継続中。Haseko looks it is now in uptrend. 

米国株は利上げによりもう一段下落しそうで、現在は１か月ぐらい続く中間反騰期か。ウクライナはHimarsにより形勢逆転するも、Putinの核使用が懸念材料。US stocks may go down further as interest rate goes up. Current rebound may last only next 1 month until next dive starts. Himars is reverting war for Ukraine however, need to watch for the use of nuclear weapon by Putin. 

円安、資源高は一服するも、ロシア制裁の影響は深刻だ。JPY depreciation and natural resource inflation looks calming down a bit but impact from sanction against Russia is serious.

ドル資産での長短金利ギャッピングはドル金利利回り曲線の平坦化でより困難。長期金利が利上げに追従しないといけないが、景気悪化見通しからは困難。米銀株が下落トレンドから離脱しているが、短期的な反騰だろう。おっかなびっくりの短期反騰相場となりそう。Interest rate gapping on dollar assets is now difficult due to the flattening of USD interest rate yield curve. Long term interest rate should rise as FF rate goes up however, economic forecast makes it difficult. US bank stocks are deviating from down trend however, they are all short term rebound. A scary short term rebound rally may continue. 

米銀株、USTU10とSPX  US Banks, UST10＆SPX

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

[今回予測20220722］Forecast at this time 

[前回予測20220715］Previous Forecast 

3LB Month/Week/Day

Midterm Range

崩壊する民主主義。投票義務化法、罰則規定付き、憲法改正 Collapsing Democracy. Compulsory Voting Law with Penalties, Constitution Amendment

崩壊する民主主義。投票義務化法、罰則規定付き、憲法改正　

Collapsing Democracy. Compulsory Voting Law with Penalties, Constitution Amendment

民主主義の欠点は、全員参加を強制しないために、組織票が強大な影響をもつこと。The deficiency of democracy is non-compulsory voting, that ends up creating over-presence of voting bloc in a election.

政治家は組織票を得るため、利益相反状態となる。Politicians fall into the status of conflict of interest easily if they wish to get voting bloc's support. 

組織票は投票率が上がると、その効果を失う。However, such effects will be lost if voting rate increases. 

日本は、Japan

投票を義務化し、投票しない場合は罰を与える、should make voting as compulsory by placing penalty for non-performance.

と憲法に明記する、最初の国になろう。It should be a part of constitution as a first country in the world to make voting mandatory. 

マイナンバーカードを持って投票所で電子投票ぐらいは簡単だ。Voting at polling place with national identification card should not be a problem.

ウクライナ侵略戦争 Russian invasion to Ukraine

ウクライナ侵略戦争

Russian invasion to Ukraine

ロシアのウクライナ侵略はもう半年になろうとしている。報道される悲惨な状況に毎日耐えられない思いをしている人は多い。It's been almost half year since Russia started invasion to Ukraine. Many feel mentally not endurable to hear daily news reports on horrifying situation.

現代的な普通の町や住宅が突然砲撃され、多くの人が死んでいる。Many die due to sudden shelling on modern normal town and residencies. 

歴史的には深い背景があるようだが、理由がなんであれ、平和に暮らしている一般市民の居住地区に砲弾の雨を降らせるロシアの今回のやり方は、現代社会において容認されるものではない。あたかも時間の軸が70年前に戻ったようだ。Looks some deep historical background exists however, whatever the reason, immediate Russian rain-shelling over peaceful civilians residential area are totally unacceptable in modern society. It looks as if time axis has gone back 70 years ago.

同時に、ロシアの侵略のやり方も70年前のままだ。現代において、地球上のすべての場所は丸見えだ。ロシアからウクライナへ侵略する戦闘車の長蛇の列がアリの行列のように人工衛星やドローンから丸見え。The way of Russian invasion also looks the same as 70 years back. In modern world, all activities on earth are totally visible. Russian columns of war vehicles that invaded Ukraine are all captured by drone as well as satellites. 

この時点で不法入国した端から撃破されるのかと思っていたら、なんと、なんの抵抗も受けずに、首都まで迫ってしまった。Initially I thought each of invaded war vehicles will be destroyed as it got into Ukraine but it never happened. Amazingly, all came close to capital without any counterattack.

結局ウクライナにはロシアの１／１０程度の軍備しかなかったため、意味のある抵抗ができなかったのだろう。After all, Ukraine has only 1/10 of Russian military power, hence could not make meaningful fight back. 

首都をなんとか守ったものの、東部南部を占拠されてしまう。Capital was barely protected but east and south regions of Ukraine were occupied. 

ここでやっと西側が提供したのが、ロシアの砲弾の射程をはるかに上回る長射程のGPS誘導ロケット弾、HIMARSだ。衛星写真でロシア軍の正確な座標は分かっているので、あとは入力してボタンを押すだけ。Finally at this stage, west provided GPS guided rocket missile HIMARS with range far longer than Russian artilleries.  All position on Russian fires are all known through satellite camera, hence all needed to do was to input coordinates, then push button. 

結果、ウクライナの占領地域にロシアが築いた大規模な兵器庫、燃料庫、弾薬庫、指令室などが、あっと言う間に消えていく。As a result, major deposits of ammunitions, fuels, artilleries and command centers, that Russia has been building up on invaded Ukraine land so far, were almost all gone in very short period of time. 

ここに来て、ようやく、これが70年前の戦争とは全く違うことに気づく。７０年前、戦闘機により行われていた攻撃はすべて精密誘導ミサイルで完結。わざわざ危険を冒し、敵地に戦闘機を送り、爆弾を投下する必要もない。Coming up to this stage, finally,  it was realized that war is happening in modern world but not in 70 years back. All attacks , done by attack aircraft in 70 years ago, now all completes by guided precision missiles. No need to take risk to send attack aircrafts and bomb enemy area. 

現在、ロシアの戦力も激減したと言われる。いよいよ、退却を余儀なくされたプーチンに最後に残された手段は核だ。ただ、核を使用した場合、プーチンは西側が核による報復をしてくるのも良くわかっている。Now Russian military power looks drastically diminished.  Putin looks has no option but to retreat now however, he still has final choice to use nuclear weapon.  But Putin also knows that west will retaliate Russia by nuclear weapon in return if he choses to use nuclear weapon. 

今後の展開が非常に危ない。危険な綱渡りが始まる。Now situation is getting into real critical dangerous moment. Risky tightrope walking looks just started. 

AI 株価予測 20220722の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220722 Status 8306MUFG

  AI 株価予測 20220722の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220722 Status 8306MUFG

下落継続かと思われたが下降レンジ下値抵抗線で反発。週末には下降レンジ上値抵抗線で止まった。Initially I thought down trend will continue but bounced back at lower resistance of downward range trend. Rebound stopped at upper resistance of downward range trend.

AI予測は変わらず。日足、週足ともに600円台への突入を予測。No change on AI forecast. AI forecast indicates diving into 600 level for daily as well as for weekly. 

米銀株も反発継続中。一方、米10年債利回りは2.7%と下落中。US bank stocks continued rebound. Meanwhile, US 10 year treasury rate went down to 2.7% level. 

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は4/4。長期保有は1/4。Trade details are here. 4/4 limit holding at the point of weekend with 1/4 for long term holding position. 

下降トレンドを明確に離脱すれば追加購入を考える。If exit from downward range trend is explicitly observed, I will think of making additional purchase. 

三菱商事は底値形成中。Mitsubishi trading looks creating bottom. 

長谷工は上昇トレンド継続中。Haseko looks it is now in uptrend. 

中国不動産バブル崩壊。決算発表。円安。エネルギー危機。HIMARSによるロシア軍壊滅と核危機。今週も荒れる相場となりそうだ。Chinese real estate bubble collapse. Qtrly, Semi Annual result publishing. JPY depreciation. Energy crisis. Collapse of Russian invaders by HIMARS followed by nuclear war crisis. Next week will be another rough one. 

米銀株、USTU10とSPX  US Banks, UST10＆SPX

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

[今回予測20220722］Forecast at this time 

変化なし　No Change

[前回予測20220715］Previous Forecast 

3LB Month/Week/Day

Midterm Range

AI 株価予測 20220715の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220715 Status 8306MUFG

 AI 株価予測 20220715の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220715 Status 8306MUFG

ETF換金売りからの反発も短命で下降トレンドの上値抵抗線で跳ね返され、再度下落し700円を一時下回る。新値は日足、週足ともに下方へ更新。Rebound from ETF cash generation drop at mid-resistance of downtrend was short-live. It hit ceiling at upper resistance of downtrend, then sold down once more as far as below 700 one time. 3LB for daily and weekly were revised downward. 

オレンジ色の長期上昇トレンドで下げ止まったようにも見え、水色の下降トレンドで反発することもあるだろう。Orange collared line, that indicates long term uptrend, may support the price hence it may rebound at blue line as well. 

安全を見ると、水色の下降トレンドからの脱却、もしくは最下層の抵抗線タッチを待つのが良い。However, if you want to be careful, better to wait for the exit from downtrend, or touch at the bottom resistance of resistance lines. 

三菱商事は底値形成中。Mitsubishi trading looks creating bottom. 

長谷工は上昇トレンド継続中。Haseko looks it is now in uptrend. 

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は4/4。長期保有は1/4。Trade details are here. 4/4 limit holding at the point of weekend with 1/4 for long term holding position. 

AI予測は日足、週足ともに600円台への突入を予測。AI forecast indicates diving into 600 level for daily as well as for weekly. 

米銀は指標と供に久しぶりに大幅反発も３連休明けは反落だろう。 Big rebound of US bank stocks may go bearish for the beginning this week. 

今週は、22日金曜日がロシアのドイツ向けガス供給再開予定日で緊張が走る。日銀は金利引き上げ圧力が強まってきた。ウクライナはHIMARSによりロシアを追い払うことが出来そうだ。This week, tension may come back on 22nd Friday since it is the day when Russia is scheduled to resume gas supply to Germany. BOJ is pressured to increase interest rate. Ukraine may be able to expel Russian invader thanks to the HIMARS.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX  US Banks, UST10＆SPX

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

[今回予測20220715］Forecast at this time 

[前回予測20220708］Previous Forecast 

3LB Month/Week/Day

Midterm Range

AI 株価予測 20220708の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220708 Status 8306MUFG

 AI 株価予測 20220708の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220708 Status 8306MUFG

基本様子見。ETF配当捻出換金売りとみられる下落。週中に反発するも、下降トレンド内でのスピード調整の範囲。青線のトレンドからの脱却が必要。Basically just watched the next trend to come. There was further drop presumably due to the sell to generate cash for ETF dividend payments. Rebound in the middle of the week but resulted in the correction of too-steep drop. Need to get out of blue lines above first. 

三菱商事は更なる下落。新値の形状は反発を示唆。Mitsubishi-trading showed further drop. Line break shape indicates rebound to come up.

長谷工は長期上昇トレンドで推移。Haseko is following long term uptrend. 

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は4/4。長期保有は1/4。Trade details are here. 4/4 limit holding at the point of weekend with 1/4 for long term holding position. 

AI予測には変化在り。日足では微小反発、週足では600円台突入と出た。AI forecasts have changed. Small rebound for daily and drop below 700 for weekly. 

参議院選挙の結果は、自民党の圧勝となり、株式は上昇する。ただ、選挙結果が現状を大きく変える要素は無く、一時的な上昇に終わる。ウクライナはHIMARS配備で形勢が一部変わりかけている。西側の兵器支援は、戦争の長期化を招く遅々とした逐次投入だ。戦争が長期化するにつれ世界経済は疲弊する。一気に兵器支援を行い、早期解決を図るべきだ。The result of election of house of councillors will result in LDP winning and stock will rise. However, the result of election will not change current status much, hence such rise will be short live. Ukraine situation is changing a partly due to the deployment of HIMARS. West weapon support is inviting elongation of war due to slow gradual provision of weapons. As war elongates, world economy will go worse. All at once supply of weapons should be done to end the war sooner. 

米銀株、USTU10とSPX  US Banks, UST10＆SPX

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

[今回予測20220708］Forecast at this time 

[前回予測20220617］Previous Forecast 

3LB Month/Week/Day

Midterm Range