黒田日銀の黄昏
The twilight of Kuroda Regime
流れを整理すると、The stream of events are,
１）２０１３年、民主党から自民党に政権交代。通貨を防衛しすぎた前総裁白川による過剰な円高を、利下げで適度なドル１１０円程度の円安に誘導。輸出企業は息を吹き返し、株価は７千円台から２８０００円へと急回復。アベノミクスの唯一の成功でクロダノミクスと呼ばれた。Regime change from DPJ to LDP in 2013. Replacing ex-governor Shirakawa, new governor Kuroda drove excessive JPY appreciation to comfortable level of 110 by easing. Export industry started to recover and Nikkei average advanced from 7K to 28K. It was called as Kurodanomics as the only success case of Abenomics.
２）インフレターゲット２％が設定される。しかし、黒田はデフレの原因をマイナスの需給ギャップと勘違いし、緩和政策を続けるも、インフレは起きず。デフレの本当の理由は安価な海外生産物の輸入であった。Inflation target is set as 2%. However, Kuroda confused the reason of deflation as negative demand/supply gap, hence continued reflationary monetary policy although it never triggered inflation. The real cause of deflation was cheaper imports from overseas.
３）２０１５年、マイナス金利開始。銀行株は暴落。In 2015, Kuroda further dived into negative interest rate monetary policy driving bank stock crash.
４）２０２０年、コロナ禍。株、大暴落。米国ではGDPの２５％ものコロナ支援バラマキによりインフレが９％を超え。米がインフレを抑えるためにドル金利を上昇させると、円は、ドル１５０円までの大暴落。In 2020, Covid-19 triggered stock market crash. In US, over 25% of Covid-19 financial aids caused 9% inflation. US hiked interest rate to stop inflation but it caused massive JPY depreciation down to 150Yen to Dollar.
５）円大暴落とロシアのウクライナ戦争による資源高で、日本でもインフレ高進。だが、日銀黒田は緩和策継続に固執。２０２２年６月、利上げのタイミングは近いと読んだヘッジフアンドが国債市場を売り崩そうと３週間粘るも、無制限に国債を買い続けられる日銀に敗退。JPY depreciation as well as Russian invasion to Ukraine caused inflation of natural resources that ended up creating inflation in Japan also. Nevertheless, Kuroda persistently kept easing monetary policy. In June 2022, hedge funds that saw the timing of interest rate tightening in Japan is close, short sold JGB market for 3 weeks but never made it due to unlimited JGB purchase by BOJ.
６）２０２２年１２月、過剰な円安を止めたい岸田首相を受け、黒田は初めて１０年金利を０．２５％から０．５％へ利上げ。直後ドル１５０円レベルの円安は止まり、為替は元通りの１１０円を目指した動きに。In Dec 2022, asked by Kishida, who wished to stop excessive JPY depreciation, Kuroda hiked 10yr interest rate from 0.25 to 0.5 for the 1st time. Immediately after, 150yen/dollar level JPY depreciation stopped and started to go toward back to 110 yen level.
７）２０２３年１月現在、明日の１８日に日銀金利決定会合がある。黒田４月退任前に、次期総裁の決定を２月に行う予定。Currently in Jan 2023, tomorrow is the day of interest rate decision. The successor of Kuroda will be decided next month Feb.
８）最近になってインフレはターゲットの２％を超えてきたにも関わらず、黒田は「賃金に反映されていない」として、緩和を続けると主張しているがこれも日本の構造を誤解している。日本の賃金が上がらない理由は実は、日本固有の終身雇用に原因がある。欧米で当たり前の金銭解雇が未だその是非を議論している。日本は半社会主義体制であるため、解雇はできず、日本の労働生産性は低く、賃金を一律に上げることができないのである。Recently Kuroda is insisting that wage is not picking up hence he cannot stop easing even though 2% inflation target is already achieved. This is another misunderstanding by Kuroda on Japanese labor market structure. The reason of slow wage hike actually comes from life-long employment of Japan. Western style restructuring with compensation package still is not common in Japan. People still argue the ethical point of firing with compensation package. Japan is on semi-socialistic system culturally, hence firing is difficult and it is making labor productivity low. This is why wage cannot be increased uniformly.
当初、バズーカと称えられ、アベノミクスの唯一の成功であった黒田も、任期末にはインフレターゲット原理主義者と化し、引け際を汚したのは残念だ。Initially Kuroda's policy implementation was praised as bazooka and was the only success of Abenomics however, going close to the end of term, Kuroda ended up becoming inflation target fundamentalist. It is very sad to see it.
人間、一方向へ進んで成功事例をもってしまうと、その成功体験から逃れられず自滅していくケースが多い。環境の変化に柔軟に対応していく能力の必要性を見せつけられた。Human tend to stick to previous success story of his own and end up failing without noticing the change of environment. He showed all how important it is to adjust flexibly to the new environment.