AI 株価予測 20230728の状況8306MUFG
Stock Price AI Forecast - 20230728 8306MUFG
激動の１週間だった。パウエルが０．２５％の利上げ（多分最後）をするかと思うと、植田はYCCの上限を０．５％から１．０％へ引き上げた。結果、日経平均は暴落、MUFGは暴騰した。来週８／１はMUFGの決算発表で更なる乱高下となるだろう。Drastic week. Powell raised last hike of 0.25% while Ueda raised YCC upper bound from 0.5% to 1.0%. As a result, Nikkei dropped sharply while MUFG went up significant. Next week Aug 1 is a MUFG Qtrly result announcement day when price move up/down drastic.
短期的な抵抗線は１３００円上値、１０００円下値だが、過去、１０００円近辺では３００円幅の乱高下があった。Short term resistance is 1300up and 1000down however, historically there were 300 level volatilities are observed around 1000.
海外投資家の買いは復活したようだ。面白いのは海外勢の上昇に合わせ、個人、年金が一貫して売り向かっていることだ。Looks foreign investor resumed investing. Interesting point is that individuals and pensions have been constantly net-selling as foreign investors constantly kept buying.
PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE is on recovery trend while USDJPY got intervention.
QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT looks in halt while money stock is on down trend.
3/3 limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 3/3.
新値は日足・月足は変わらず。週足は上昇。AI予測は日足、週足は下落、月足は上昇。3LB advanced for day and monthly charts. But it dropped for weekly. AI forecast indicated drop for weekly and daily but upward for monthly.
三菱商事は一旦天井か。Mitsubishi might have reached its temporal peak.
長谷工も上昇。Haseko went up as well.
ウクライナはクリミア橋を一部爆破したが、影響は限定的。クラスター弾により遅々とした領土奪還が加速に転じるか。Ukraine blew up part of Crimea bridge however it has minimal impact on war. The use of cluster bomb may accelerate the recapturing of its own territories.
米銀株、USTU10とSPX US Banks, UST10＆SPX
NYのIVが減少する一方、株価指標は下がっている。これは、株価の上昇を暗示しているのかもしれない。Note that NYIV has gone down while stock indexes has gone down, may implying the upward expectation of market.
NYのIVが減少する一方、株価指標は下がっている。これは、株価の上昇を暗示しているのかもしれない。Note that NYIV has gone down while stock indexes has gone down, may implying the upward expectation of market.
米金利の今後 US FF rate forecast
パウエルは年内のさらなる利上げを示唆したが、不動産市場の暴落に起因する米経済のクラッシュが秋口にも懸念されており、年内の利上げは起こらない可能性が高い。Powell implied another rate hike this year however, imminent real estate bubble crash may trigger whole US market this fall, making interest rate hike very difficult.
UST10とJGB10は上目線。UST10 and JGB10 yields are on upward trend.
米国逆イールドは極まりつつあり、歴史的には景気後退が近いことを示す。US 10y-2y spread has been negative implying historical economic slow down following the period.
3LB Month/Week/Day
[今回予測20230728］Forecast at this time
[前回予測20230721］Previous Forecast
[今回予測20230728］Forecast at this time
[前回予測20230721］Previous Forecast
Midterm Range
一応レンジに収まっている。買い出動は最低でもレンジ下限、８００近辺にならないと考えられない。Still within the range. Reaching lower range of 800 level is the minimal condition to make another purchase.
Midterm Range
一応レンジに収まっている。買い出動は最低でもレンジ下限、８００近辺にならないと考えられない。Still within the range. Reaching lower range of 800 level is the minimal condition to make another purchase.
