AI 株価予測 20231013の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20231013　8306MUFG

短期的な底打ち後、大きく反発したが続かず、週末にかけて下落した。現物の買いは入ってきているものの、先物の売りが買いの３倍ほど出て下落したようだ。その後、買い戻しで急激に戻したが、戻し一巡後は下落に向かった。好調な決算だったJPMは若干戻した。After a short-term bottom, there was a significant rebound that didn't last, and the market declined towards the weekend. While there's buying interest in the spot market, it appears that futures selling exceeded buying by about three times, contributing to the decline. Subsequently, a sharp rebound occurred due to buying back, but after this initial bounce, the market trended downwards. JPM, which had strong earnings, experienced a slight rebound.

米国の生産者物価指数、消費者物価指数はほぼ予想通りだった。米金利は下落し、調子づいているようだが、金利が長期高止まりすることを織り込んでいない様子だ。The US Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index were nearly in line with expectations. US interest rates declined, indicating a sense of confidence, but it doesn't seem to be factoring in a long-term high-interest rate scenario.

来週はバンカメ、GS（火曜日7AM）、モルスタ（水曜日7AM）などの決算があるが、相場全体の下落に逆行できるかどうか注目。Next week, we have earnings reports from companies like Bank of America, Goldman Sachs(Tuesday7AM), and Morgan Stanley(Wednesday7AM) and it's worth watching if they can counteract the overall market decline.

JPMは金利収入が主な増益要因で、同様の増益が他行にも生じると、来週の銀行株は上昇に向かう可能性もある。ただ、理論的には米国は逆イールドのため、金利上昇は長短金利差による金利収益にはつながらないどころか逆ザヤだ。よって、金利収入増額は利上げ自体でない、なんらかの利ザヤが拡大したことによるものだろう。JPM's primary source of increased profits is interest income, and if similar profit increases occur at other banks, there is a possibility that bank stocks next week may move upward. However, in theory, due to the inverted yield curve in the United States, rising interest rates will not lead to increased interest income through the yield spread; in fact, it could have the opposite effect. Therefore, the increase in interest income is likely due to some kind of expanded profit margin rather than the interest rate hike itself.

市場の感覚を肌で感じるため、僅かなポジションを取った。本格参入は方向性が確認できてから。４－９月のバリュー爆買いのようなトレンドが発生すれば買い。このまま落ちていけば新値を数えて参入したい。To get a feel for the market sentiment, I've taken on a small position. I'll only fully commit when the market direction becomes clear. If a trend similar to the Q4-Q1 value buying frenzy emerges, I'll buy in. If the market continues to decline, I'd like to enter at new lows.

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は１/５0。長期枠利用は0/3。Trade details are here.　１/50 limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 0/3.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクがことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega banks is more characterized by the uplift of value stocks rather than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega banks have uniformly risen, and not just mega banks but also sectors like construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued and overlooked, have experienced significant surges. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, much like what happened with mega banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The biggest worry of US stock is the crash of US commercial real estate due to remote work, that is not really considered in the market still.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。Underlying impact is coming also from crash of Chinese real estate market. The shrinkage of China money will accelerate the further crash of commercial real estate market globally.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。９月末の配当を待たずして起こる可能性もある。The world wide stock market crash stemming from US market crash will happen in few months. It can happen before the dividend day in Sep end.

外国人は現物買いを再開したようだ。Below table shows the resumption of investment by foreign investors.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE is on recovery trend while USDJPY got intervention.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT looks in halt while money stock is on down trend.

新値は日足は下落、週足・月足とも上昇。AI予測は日足は下落、週足、月足とも上昇。The stock is currently showing a daily decline in price while experiencing upward trends on the weekly and monthly charts. AI predictions suggest a daily decline but upward trends on both the weekly and monthly charts.

三菱商事は力強く反発。Mitsubishi Corp. made strong rebound.

長谷工も同様に反発。Haseko Corporation rebounded strongly.

ウクライナは徐々に領土奪還を進めているようだ。Counter offensive by Ukraine to retake the invaded territories are underway meter by meter.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

NKYもSPXも暴落目前ムード満載のチャート。だが、現状ではまだ、米商業用不動産破綻、中国経済破綻から来る経済不安をベースとした大暴落には少し早すぎるだろう。それは、まだ米国ドルのイールドカーブの１０Ｙ－２Ｙが未だマイナスだからだ。暴落はこれがプラ転してから始まるのが常だ。NKY as well as SPX chart is telling that crash is imminent. However it will be a little bit early to be a real crash that originates from US commercial real estate crash as well as China economic crash. It is because US 10Y-2Y yield is still negative. Real crash normally comes after 10Y-2Y comes back to positive number.

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

市場は利下げ目線で、パーテイーを始めようとしているが、完全なフライングだろう。４％超の金利が長期間続くことの重みがこれから深く認識されることになる。The market is looking to start the party with a rate cut perspective, but it may be premature. The weight of interest rates above 4% persisting for an extended period will be more deeply recognized in the near future.

米金利低下につられ、日本の金利も日銀の介入を待たずして低下開始。外国人投資家がいかに市場を支配しているかを示している。In response to the decline in US interest rates, Japanese interest rates have also started to decrease without waiting for intervention from the Bank of Japan. This demonstrates how foreign investors are exerting control over the market.