AI 株価予測 20231027の状況8306MUFG
Stock Price AI Forecast - 20231027 8306MUFG
先物の仕掛けに振り回される１週間になった。週足は全く動かなかった。火曜日の動きは下値をブレークする仕掛けで、イベント満載の来週も再度繰り返されるだろう。ブラックマンデーも近いかもしれない。 It has been a week of being tossed around by the futures market. The weekly chart showed absolutely no movement. The movement on Tuesday was a setup to break the lower levels, and it's likely to happen again next week, which is filled with events. Black Monday may be approaching as well.
最終日の反発は元気があったが、これは実は１週間続いた一連の先物対決のアンワインドの結果であり、MUFG単独の反発ではないことに注意。The rebound on the final day was energetic, but it's important to note that this was actually the result of the unwinding of a week-long series of futures showdowns, not a standalone rebound for MUFG.
トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は１/５0。長期枠利用は0/3。Trade details are here. １/50 limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 0/3.
メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクがことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega banks is more characterized by the uplift of value stocks rather than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega banks have uniformly risen, and not just mega banks but also sectors like construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued and overlooked, have experienced significant surges. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, much like what happened with mega banks.
米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The biggest worry of US stock is the crash of US commercial real estate due to remote work, that is not really considered in the market still.
根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。Underlying impact is coming also from crash of Chinese real estate market. The shrinkage of China money will accelerate the further crash of commercial real estate market globally.
米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The world wide stock market crash stemming from US market crash will happen in few months.
逆イールドは健在。Reverse yield curve still presents.
外国人は現物買いをいったん中断。Foreign investors stopped buying Japanese stock in cash.
PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE is on recovery trend while USDJPY got intervention.
ドル円は財務省の大規模な為替介入が始まった。USD/JPY is testing 150 while major intervention by MOF has started.
QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT looks in halt while money stock is on down trend.
新値は日足は下落、週足・月足とも上昇。AI予測は日足は下落、週足、月足とも上昇。The stock is currently showing a daily decline in price while experiencing upward trends on the weekly and monthly charts. AI predictions suggest a daily decline but upward trends on both the weekly and monthly charts.
三菱商事は反落。再度下落トレンドへ。MTC went down. Now it is on downtrend.
長谷工も下値抵抗線を試している。Haseko is testing lower resistance as well.
ウクライナは犠牲を伴いながら順調に領土奪還を進めている。中東戦争は人道支援から一旦収まっているが、いつでも再開しそうだ。Ukraine is steadily reclaiming its territory, albeit with casualties. The Middle East conflict has temporarily subsided from humanitarian assistance efforts, but it seems it could resume at any time.
米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY
NKYもSPXも暴落目前ムード満載のチャート。だが、現状ではまだ、米商業用不動産破綻、中国経済破綻から来る経済不安をベースとした大暴落には少し早すぎるだろう。それは、まだ米国ドルのイールドカーブの１０Ｙ－２Ｙが未だマイナスだからだ。暴落はこれがプラ転してから始まるのが常だ。NKY as well as SPX chart is telling that crash is imminent. However it will be a little bit early to be a real crash that originates from US commercial real estate crash as well as China economic crash. It is because US 10Y-2Y yield is still negative. Real crash normally comes after 10Y-2Y comes back to positive number.
NKYもSPXも暴落目前ムード満載のチャート。だが、現状ではまだ、米商業用不動産破綻、中国経済破綻から来る経済不安をベースとした大暴落には少し早すぎるだろう。それは、まだ米国ドルのイールドカーブの１０Ｙ－２Ｙが未だマイナスだからだ。暴落はこれがプラ転してから始まるのが常だ。NKY as well as SPX chart is telling that crash is imminent. However it will be a little bit early to be a real crash that originates from US commercial real estate crash as well as China economic crash. It is because US 10Y-2Y yield is still negative. Real crash normally comes after 10Y-2Y comes back to positive number.
米金利の今後 US FF rate forecast
市場は利下げ目線で、パーテイーを始めようとしているが、完全なフライングだろう。４％超の金利が長期間続くことの重みがこれから深く認識されることになる。The market is looking to start the party with a rate cut perspective, but it may be premature. The weight of interest rates above 4% persisting for an extended period will be more deeply recognized in the near future.
低下した金利は再び急騰、ドル金利は５％を超えた。円金利は１％を目指して上昇中。Once went down interest rate now resumes rising. US interest rate now exceeds 5%. JPY interest rate is going up toward 1%.
3LB Month/Week/Day
日足のみが陰転した。Only the daily chart has turned bearish.
[今回予測20231027］Forecast at this time
変化なし。No Change.
[前回予測20231020］Previous Forecast
[今回予測20231027］Forecast at this time
変化なし。No Change.
[前回予測20231020］Previous Forecast
Midterm Range
急上昇レンジからは逸脱した。中期上昇レンジをどこまで下落するかが焦点。中期上層レンジ下限に達したら再度購入予定。It has deviated from the rapid upward range. The focus now is how far it will drop within the medium-term upward range. I plan to make a purchase once more when it reaches the lower limit of the medium-term upper range.
Midterm Range
急上昇レンジからは逸脱した。中期上昇レンジをどこまで下落するかが焦点。中期上層レンジ下限に達したら再度購入予定。It has deviated from the rapid upward range. The focus now is how far it will drop within the medium-term upward range. I plan to make a purchase once more when it reaches the lower limit of the medium-term upper range.
