AI 株価予測 20231020の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20231020　8306MUFG

先週のデリバ解消の上昇は続かず下落し、日米とも、下値抵抗線に達する崖っぷちとなった。米銀のQ3決算発表はまちまち。モルスタ決算は変わらずで下落。The rise due to the unwind of derivative positions in last week did not continue but instead saw a decline, bringing both the Japanese and American markets to the edge of a support line. The Q3 earnings announcements from American banks were mixed, with no significant changes in Morgan Stanley's earnings, resulting in a decrease.

日本のメガバンクは株式指標の下落にもかかわらず下落幅は少なく、月末の利上げを想定した買いが入っている模様。外国人の現物買いも継続しているようで、これが世界全体の株暴落に打ち勝つことができるかがポイントか。Despite the decline in stock market indices, Japanese mega-banks have experienced relatively minor declines. It appears that there is buying interest in anticipation of an interest rate hike at the end of the month. Foreign investors also seem to continue buying stocks in cash, and whether this can withstand a global stock market crash is a key point to watch.

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は１/５0。長期枠利用は0/3。Trade details are here.　１/50 limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 0/3.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクがことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega banks is more characterized by the uplift of value stocks rather than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega banks have uniformly risen, and not just mega banks but also sectors like construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued and overlooked, have experienced significant surges. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, much like what happened with mega banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The biggest worry of US stock is the crash of US commercial real estate due to remote work, that is not really considered in the market still.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。Underlying impact is coming also from crash of Chinese real estate market. The shrinkage of China money will accelerate the further crash of commercial real estate market globally.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The world wide stock market crash stemming from US market crash will happen in few months.

逆イールドは健在。Reverse yield curve still presents.

外国人は現物買いを継続。Foreign investors still keep buying Japanese stock in cash.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE is on recovery trend while USDJPY got intervention.

ドル円は150円を試す展開で、財務省の大規模な為替介入がいつ来てもおかしくない。USD/JPY is testing 150 while waiting for major intervention by MOF.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT looks in halt while money stock is on down trend.

新値は日足は下落、週足・月足とも上昇。AI予測は日足は下落、週足、月足とも上昇。The stock is currently showing a daily decline in price while experiencing upward trends on the weekly and monthly charts. AI predictions suggest a daily decline but upward trends on both the weekly and monthly charts.

三菱商事は反落。再度下落トレンドへ。MTC went down. Now it is on downtrend.

長谷工も下値抵抗線を試している。Haseko is testing lower resistance as well.

ハマスがイスラエルにアイアンドームの処理能力を超える大量のミサイルを撃ち込み、イスラエルは反撃、現状で5000人近い犠牲者が出てしまった。バイデンはウクライナとイスラエル及び台湾の防衛に15兆円規模の予算を議会に要求。ウクライナへの米国の軍事支援を妨害するための苦し紛れの工作だろうが、予算は基本国債を発行すればいくらでも出てくるので、ウクライナへの支援は問題なく継続されるだろう。ただ、来年の大統領選でトランプ大統領が再選されると支援は途絶するため、ウクライナとしては一日も早い領土奪還を果たしたいところだ。Hamas has launched a large number of missiles exceeding the Iron Dome's interception capabilities at Israel, prompting Israel to retaliate. As of now, there have been nearly 5,000 casualties. President Biden has requested a budget of 15 trillion yen from Congress for the defense of Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. While this may be seen as a desperate effort to obstruct U.S. military aid to Ukraine, the budget can easily be raised by issuing government bonds, ensuring continued support to Ukraine. However, it is crucial for Ukraine to regain its territory as soon as possible, as support may cease if President Trump is re-elected in next year's presidential election.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

NKYもSPXも暴落目前ムード満載のチャート。だが、現状ではまだ、米商業用不動産破綻、中国経済破綻から来る経済不安をベースとした大暴落には少し早すぎるだろう。それは、まだ米国ドルのイールドカーブの１０Ｙ－２Ｙが未だマイナスだからだ。暴落はこれがプラ転してから始まるのが常だ。NKY as well as SPX chart is telling that crash is imminent. However it will be a little bit early to be a real crash that originates from US commercial real estate crash as well as China economic crash. It is because US 10Y-2Y yield is still negative. Real crash normally comes after 10Y-2Y comes back to positive number.

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

市場は利下げ目線で、パーテイーを始めようとしているが、完全なフライングだろう。４％超の金利が長期間続くことの重みがこれから深く認識されることになる。The market is looking to start the party with a rate cut perspective, but it may be premature. The weight of interest rates above 4% persisting for an extended period will be more deeply recognized in the near future.

低下した金利は再び急騰、ドル金利は５％を超えた。円金利は１％を目指して上昇中。Once went down interest rate now resumes rising. US interest rate now exceeds 5%. JPY interest rate is going up toward 1%.