AI 株価予測 20231124の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20231124 8306MUFG

  AI 株価予測 20231124の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20231124　8306MUFG

火曜日のNVIDIA決算は好調だったが株価は下げた。しかしその後のNY株は堅調な展開で、下落の兆しは見られない。The Q3 result of NVIDEA was fantastic however stock price went down. Nevertheless the NY stock remained solid during the week and there is no sign of crash for now. 

日本株は下落サインは見られるものの若干の上昇基調。Japan stock looks a bit bearish but still kept going up. 

日米とも、年初来高値付近で、ブレークか、反落かの分岐点。Both Japan and US stock are at the critical point to decide which way to go, up or down. 

ブレーク要因としては、米金利の低下とソフトランディング期待、ハイテク業績の続伸、大統領選など、Factors to break the upper resistance are US interest rate hike, expectation of soft landing, expansion of business for high tech industries, US presidential election, etc.

反落要因としては、長期金利の高止まり、逆イールド解消、商業・住宅用不動産破綻、中国経済破綻。Factors to be bounced down are, US high interest rate persists for a long time, inversion of reversed yield curve, commercial and residential real estate crash, Chinese economic crash.

SP500はレンジ抵抗線チャレンジ。SP500 is challenging the upper resistance. 

雇用のさらなる悪化や逆イールド解消が歴史的に株価下落のサインであることから、市場は今後数カ月後の本格的な株式暴落に向けてチキンレースの様相を呈している。Since further deterioration of employment as well as normalization of inverse yield curve indicate the stock decline historically, market may be in a chicken race towards a major market crash coming up in few month. 

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は0/５0。長期枠利用は0/50。Trade details are here.　0/50 limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 0/50.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega banks is more characterized by the uplift of value stocks rather than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega banks have uniformly risen, and not just mega banks but also sectors like construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued and overlooked, have experienced significant surges. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, much like what happened with mega banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The biggest worry of US stock is the crash of US commercial real estate due to remote work, that is not really considered in the market still.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。Underlying impact is coming also from crash of Chinese real estate market. The shrinkage of China money will accelerate the further crash of commercial real estate market globally.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The world wide stock market crash stemming from US market crash will happen in few months. 

逆イールドは健在。Reverse yield curve still presents. 

外国人の先物買いは大きいが、現物買いも３０００億円台になったのは注目に値する。Foreign Investor's future buy is still large however, it is worth paying attention that cash stock purchase now reached JPY3bn level. 

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE is on recovery trend while USDJPY got intervention.

ドル円は財務省の大規模な為替介入が始まった。USD/JPY is testing 150 while major intervention by MOF has started. 

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT looks in halt while money stock is on down trend. 

新値は日足は下落、週足・月足とも上昇。AI予測は日足は下落、週足、月足とも上昇。The stock is currently showing a daily decline in price while experiencing upward trends on the weekly and monthly charts. AI predictions suggest a daily decline but upward trends on both the weekly and monthly charts.

三菱商事は上昇後反落。下落トレンドからは離脱。MTC went up but showed sharp decline. Got out of downward trend. 

長谷工は決算日を迎え、７－９月は増益だが、通期は据え置いた。Haseko's Q2 result was announced. July-Sep earning has increased but remain the annual result forecast unchanged. 

ウクライナは徐々にロシアにより占領された領土を奪還している。本格的な奪還には、さらに欧米の支援が必要な状態。Ukraine is gradually taking Russian occupied territories however, further assistance from western allies is necessary to see real take back. 

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY  US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

NKYもSPXも暴落目前ムード満載のチャート。だが、現状ではまだ、米商業用不動産破綻、中国経済破綻から来る経済不安をベースとした大暴落には少し早すぎるだろう。それは、まだ米国ドルのイールドカーブの１０Ｙ－２Ｙが未だマイナスだからだ。暴落はこれがプラ転してから始まるのが常だ。NKY as well as SPX chart is telling that crash is imminent. However it will be a little bit early to be a real crash that originates from US commercial real estate crash as well as China economic crash. It is because US 10Y-2Y yield is still negative. Real crash normally comes after 10Y-2Y comes back to positive number.

直近の金利は、インフレ率の低下傾向を受けて、低下基調。これが、軟着陸シナリオによる株価上昇の原因。この上昇は、逆イールドカーブ解消後１年以内に起こるであろう景気後退まで続く可能性がある。Immediate interest rate is on down trend facing the trend of interest rate decline due to reduction of inflation rate trend. This is the basis for recent stock hike assuming soft landing of economy. This may last until recession that is supposed to come within one year after the resolution of the reverse yield. 

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

市場は利下げ目線で、パーテイーを始めようとしているが、完全なフライングだろう。４％超の金利が長期間続くことの重みがこれから深く認識されることになる。The market is looking to start the party with a rate cut perspective, but it may be premature. The weight of interest rates above 4% persisting for an extended period will be more deeply recognized in the near future.

ドル金利は５％を付けた後、急落、円金利は１％越え容認ののち、急騰して反落。Dollar interest rate touched 5% but later went down sharp, meanwhile, JPY interest rate has gone up after the revision of YCC policy,  then went down sharp.

3LB Month/Week/Day

日足のみが陰転した。Only the daily chart has turned bearish.

[今回予測20231124］Forecast at this time

変化なし。No Change.

[前回予測20231117］Previous Forecast 

Midterm Range

長期的には１年後をめどに暴落開始だが、それまでは上昇を続けるだろう。Long term forecast is negative expecting market crash after 1 year however, market may still going up until then. 

ROEは大事だ ROE is important

 ROEは大事だ

ROE is important

 何をいまさらと言われるのが落ちだが、ROEは大事だ。The point is often made that it's too late to talk about it now, but ROE (Return on Equity) is important.

株価を見る指標として、株を買う人から見た指標が、PERやPBR。As indicators for assessing stock prices, PER (Price-to-Earnings Ratio) and PBR (Price-to-Book Ratio) are considered from the perspective of those buying stocks.

一方、調達した資本を元手に、事業を運営する人から見た指標がROE。On the other hand, ROE is an indicator seen by those managing a business, using the capital acquired to operate it.

PERや、PBRが、株価の変動に応じてダイナミックに変化するのに対して、ROEは、日々変化することはない。四半期決算のタイミングで収益が明らかになった時と、資本に変化が起こった時に変化するぐらいだ。While PER and PBR dynamically change in response to fluctuations in stock prices, ROE remains constant on a day-to-day basis. It only changes when earnings become evident at the timing of quarterly financial statements or when changes occur in the capital.

経営者としての手腕はROEで表されるし、会社の成長性や効率性も見ることができる。The skill of a manager is reflected in ROE, and it also allows an assessment of a company's growth and efficiency.

ROEの重要性を再認識しよう。Let's re-emphasize the importance of ROE.

AI 株価予測 20231117の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20231117 8306MUFG

 AI 株価予測 20231117の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20231117　8306MUFG

今週は、MUFG決算、米CPI発表があった。MUFG決算は、自社株買い４０００億円がよそう３０００億円に対しサプライズ、Q2の業績が予想を大きく上回った。米CPIは原油価格の下落を反映してか低下し、これを受けてNY株はギャップアップ。 This week, MUFG Q2 result was announced while US CPI was released also. MUFG result was positive with increased Q2 earning as well as own stock purchase plan of JPY400bn instead of market expectation of JPY300bn, that was taken as surprise. US CPI was down reflecting the drop of oil price mostly, then NY stock performed gap up. 

MUFG決算よし、米株下落トレンド離脱のギャップアップを見て、フルインベストメントとした。年末に向けて、米株が一段高になる可能性が高まってきた。I made full investment seeing this good MUFG result as well as US stock's exit from down trend, then gap up. 

業績発表期を通過し、日本株全体の収益は１０％ほど高まった。このため、今後３カ月は上昇が続くと考える。Passing the Q2 result period, average revenue of Japan stock increased for 10%. Hence I presume stock may rise for the next 3 month. 

ただ、３カ月以降は、米高金利による景気後退が鮮明となり、逆イールド解消後に暴落も生じる可能性が高い。However, after 3 month, US downturn of economy will be more distinct hence stock may crash after the reversal of currently inverted yield curve structure. 

TOPIXは下落トレンドを離脱後、十字線が出現し下落転換かと思ったが、金曜日の陽の包み足で否定された。After the exit from down trend, TOPIX showed cross chart pattern indicating the drop however, it was rejected by the positive engulfing leg on next day Friday. 

SP500はレンジ抵抗線チャレンジ。SP500 is challenging the upper resistance. 

雇用のさらなる悪化や逆イールド解消が歴史的に株価下落のサインであることから、市場は今後数カ月後の本格的な株式暴落に向けてチキンレースの様相を呈している。Since further deterioration of employment as well as normalization of inverse yield curve indicate the stock decline historically, market may be in a chicken race towards a major market crash coming up in few month. 

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は50/５0。長期枠利用は50/50。Trade details are here.　50/50 limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 50/50.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega banks is more characterized by the uplift of value stocks rather than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega banks have uniformly risen, and not just mega banks but also sectors like construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued and overlooked, have experienced significant surges. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, much like what happened with mega banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The biggest worry of US stock is the crash of US commercial real estate due to remote work, that is not really considered in the market still.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。Underlying impact is coming also from crash of Chinese real estate market. The shrinkage of China money will accelerate the further crash of commercial real estate market globally.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The world wide stock market crash stemming from US market crash will happen in few months. 

逆イールドは健在。Reverse yield curve still presents. 

外国人の現物買いは低調。先物主導。本格上昇には現物買いの増加が必要。Foreign investor's are not actively buying cash stock still. Market is lead by futures. Cash stock purchase is necessary for further advancement. 

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE is on recovery trend while USDJPY got intervention.

ドル円は財務省の大規模な為替介入が始まった。USD/JPY is testing 150 while major intervention by MOF has started. 

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT looks in halt while money stock is on down trend. 

新値は日足は下落、週足・月足とも上昇。AI予測は日足は下落、週足、月足とも上昇。The stock is currently showing a daily decline in price while experiencing upward trends on the weekly and monthly charts. AI predictions suggest a daily decline but upward trends on both the weekly and monthly charts.

三菱商事は上昇後反落。下落トレンドからは離脱。MTC went up but showed sharp decline. Got out of downward trend. 

長谷工は決算日を迎え、７－９月は増益だが、通期は据え置いた。Haseko's Q2 result was announced. July-Sep earning has increased but remain the annual result forecast unchanged. 

ウクライナは徐々にロシアにより占領された領土を奪還している。本格的な奪還には、さらに欧米の支援が必要な状態。Ukraine is gradually taking Russian occupied territories however, further assistance from western allies is necessary to see real take back. 

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY  US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

NKYもSPXも暴落目前ムード満載のチャート。だが、現状ではまだ、米商業用不動産破綻、中国経済破綻から来る経済不安をベースとした大暴落には少し早すぎるだろう。それは、まだ米国ドルのイールドカーブの１０Ｙ－２Ｙが未だマイナスだからだ。暴落はこれがプラ転してから始まるのが常だ。NKY as well as SPX chart is telling that crash is imminent. However it will be a little bit early to be a real crash that originates from US commercial real estate crash as well as China economic crash. It is because US 10Y-2Y yield is still negative. Real crash normally comes after 10Y-2Y comes back to positive number.

直近の金利は、インフレ率の低下傾向を受けて、低下基調。これが、軟着陸シナリオによる株価上昇の原因。この上昇は、逆イールドカーブ解消後１年以内に起こるであろう景気後退まで続く可能性がある。Immediate interest rate is on down trend facing the trend of interest rate decline due to reduction of inflation rate trend. This is the basis for recent stock hike assuming soft landing of economy. This may last until recession that is supposed to come within one year after the resolution of the reverse yield. 

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

市場は利下げ目線で、パーテイーを始めようとしているが、完全なフライングだろう。４％超の金利が長期間続くことの重みがこれから深く認識されることになる。The market is looking to start the party with a rate cut perspective, but it may be premature. The weight of interest rates above 4% persisting for an extended period will be more deeply recognized in the near future.

ドル金利は５％を付けた後、急落、円金利は１％越え容認ののち、急騰して反落。Dollar interest rate touched 5% but later went down sharp, meanwhile, JPY interest rate has gone up after the revision of YCC policy,  then went down sharp.

3LB Month/Week/Day

日足のみが陰転した。Only the daily chart has turned bearish.

[今回予測20231117］Forecast at this time

変化なし。No Change.

[前回予測20231110］Previous Forecast 

Midterm Range

長期的には１年後をめどに暴落開始だが、それまでは上昇を続けるだろう。Long term forecast is negative expecting market crash after 1 year however, market may still going up until then.