AI 株価予測 20231110の状況8306MUFG
Stock Price AI Forecast - 20231110 8306MUFG
月火水と、バリュー外しともいえる動きが出て、メガバンクを含むバリュー株が全て売られた。ところが、木曜日からSQ（金曜日寄り付き）に向けて急上昇。There was a move to exit from value stocks during Monday to Wednesday. Value stocks including Mega banks were all sold. However, those value stocks were bought back toward the SQ on Thursday and price went up rapidly.
経済フォーラムに出席したパウエルは高金利の長期継続を改めて強調し株価は一時下落したが、その後、下落トレンドを離脱する動きを見せた。来週のCPI発表後には、年末までのラリーがあるかどうかはハッキリしてきそうだ。Powell stressed the need for long term high interest rate and the statement drove stock price to go down temporarily however the stock index shows the trend to go exit from downtrend. From next week, after the announcement of CPI, it will be clear if year end rally will really come or not.
TOPIXは下落トレンドを離脱。 TOPIX did exit from downtrend.
SP500は驚いたことに下降レンジから離脱。SP500 did exit from downward range trading zone amazingly.
雇用のさらなる悪化や逆イールド解消が歴史的に株価下落のサインであることから、市場は今後数カ月後の本格的な株式暴落に向けてチキンレースの様相を呈している。Since further deterioration of employment as well as normalization of inverse yield curve indicate the stock decline historically, market may be in a chicken race towards a major market crash coming up in few month.
トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は１/５0。長期枠利用は0/3。Trade details are here. １/50 limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 0/3.
メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega banks is more characterized by the uplift of value stocks rather than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega banks have uniformly risen, and not just mega banks but also sectors like construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued and overlooked, have experienced significant surges. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, much like what happened with mega banks.
米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The biggest worry of US stock is the crash of US commercial real estate due to remote work, that is not really considered in the market still.
根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。Underlying impact is coming also from crash of Chinese real estate market. The shrinkage of China money will accelerate the further crash of commercial real estate market globally.
米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The world wide stock market crash stemming from US market crash will happen in few months.
逆イールドは健在。Reverse yield curve still presents.
外国人は現物買いを再開。Foreign investors resumed buying Japanese stock in cash.
PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE is on recovery trend while USDJPY got intervention.
ドル円は財務省の大規模な為替介入が始まった。USD/JPY is testing 150 while major intervention by MOF has started.
QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT looks in halt while money stock is on down trend.
新値は日足は下落、週足・月足とも上昇。AI予測は日足は下落、週足、月足とも上昇。The stock is currently showing a daily decline in price while experiencing upward trends on the weekly and monthly charts. AI predictions suggest a daily decline but upward trends on both the weekly and monthly charts.
三菱商事は上昇後反落。下落トレンドからは離脱。MTC went up but showed sharp decline. Got out of downward trend.
長谷工は決算日を迎え、７－９月は増益だが、通期は据え置いた。Haseko's Q2 result was announced. July-Sep earning has increased but remain the annual result forecast unchanged.
欧米が中東戦争勃発を受けてウクライナに停戦を勧める可能性が報道されており、ロシアの思う壺となる懸念が出てきた。US and Europe were reportedly may suggest Ukraine to stop war facing the middle east war. Many worry that this is what Russia expected to happen.
米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY
NKYもSPXも暴落目前ムード満載のチャート。だが、現状ではまだ、米商業用不動産破綻、中国経済破綻から来る経済不安をベースとした大暴落には少し早すぎるだろう。それは、まだ米国ドルのイールドカーブの１０Ｙ－２Ｙが未だマイナスだからだ。暴落はこれがプラ転してから始まるのが常だ。NKY as well as SPX chart is telling that crash is imminent. However it will be a little bit early to be a real crash that originates from US commercial real estate crash as well as China economic crash. It is because US 10Y-2Y yield is still negative. Real crash normally comes after 10Y-2Y comes back to positive number.
NKYもSPXも暴落目前ムード満載のチャート。だが、現状ではまだ、米商業用不動産破綻、中国経済破綻から来る経済不安をベースとした大暴落には少し早すぎるだろう。それは、まだ米国ドルのイールドカーブの１０Ｙ－２Ｙが未だマイナスだからだ。暴落はこれがプラ転してから始まるのが常だ。NKY as well as SPX chart is telling that crash is imminent. However it will be a little bit early to be a real crash that originates from US commercial real estate crash as well as China economic crash. It is because US 10Y-2Y yield is still negative. Real crash normally comes after 10Y-2Y comes back to positive number.
米金利の今後 US FF rate forecast
市場は利下げ目線で、パーテイーを始めようとしているが、完全なフライングだろう。４％超の金利が長期間続くことの重みがこれから深く認識されることになる。The market is looking to start the party with a rate cut perspective, but it may be premature. The weight of interest rates above 4% persisting for an extended period will be more deeply recognized in the near future.
ドル金利は５％を付けた後、急落、円金利は１％越え容認ののち、急騰して反落。Dollar interest rate touched 5% but later went down sharp, meanwhile, JPY interest rate has gone up after the revision of YCC policy, then went down sharp.
3LB Month/Week/Day
日足のみが陰転した。Only the daily chart has turned bearish.
[今回予測20231110］Forecast at this time
変化なし。No Change.
[前回予測20231102］Previous Forecast
[今回予測20231110］Forecast at this time
変化なし。No Change.
[前回予測20231102］Previous Forecast
Midterm Range
急上昇レンジからは逸脱した。中期上昇レンジをどこまで下落するかが焦点。中期上層レンジ下限に達したら再度購入予定。It has deviated from the rapid upward range. The focus now is how far it will drop within the medium-term upward range. I plan to make a purchase once more when it reaches the lower limit of the medium-term upper range.
Midterm Range
急上昇レンジからは逸脱した。中期上昇レンジをどこまで下落するかが焦点。中期上層レンジ下限に達したら再度購入予定。It has deviated from the rapid upward range. The focus now is how far it will drop within the medium-term upward range. I plan to make a purchase once more when it reaches the lower limit of the medium-term upper range.
