AI 株価予測 20240119の状況8306MUFG
Stock Price AI Forecast - 20240119 8306MUFG
今週は先週の急上昇の調整となった。先週の急上昇について、当初外国人の先物による操作と想定した。ところが、投資主体別売買高によると、１兆円の外国人の現物買いと４０００億円の先物買い、１兆円の個人売りであることが分かった。This week saw a correction from the sharp rise last week. Initially, it was assumed that the sharp increase last week was due to manipulation by foreign investors in the futures market. However, according to the trading volume by investor type, it was revealed that there was 1 trillion yen in actual purchases by foreign investors, 400 billion yen in futures purchases, and 1 trillion yen in individual sales.
NＹの年初来高値更新、日本株の現物買いを見ると日本株にとって環境が良好になってきている。しかし、３４０００円から３６０００円までの上昇は一旦調整する。買っていくのは調整が始まってから。NY all time high as well as cash purchase of foreign investor's Japan stock indicates good environment for Japan stocks. However, market may see a correction for the rise from 34000 to 36000. May start purchasing stocks after the correction starts.
決算発表スケジュールFinancial Results Announcement Schedule
８３０６ MUFG ２／５ Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) (8306): February 5
８０５８ 三菱商事 ２／６ Mitsubishi Corporation (8058): February 6
１８０８ 長谷工 ２／９ Haseko Corporation (1808): February 9
日銀金利決定会合は１／２２、２３。現状維持となるだろう。BOJ interest rate decision is done on Jan 22nd and 23rd. No change is expected.
一方、NYダウ、SP500は上場来高値を更新し、下落シナリオは否定された。On the other hand, the NY Dow and SP500 have set new all-time highs, negating the scenario of a decline.
トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は0。長期枠利用は0。Trade details are here. 0 limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 0.
メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega banks is more characterized by the uplift of value stocks rather than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega banks have uniformly risen, and not just mega banks but also sectors like construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued and overlooked, have experienced significant surges. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, much like what happened with mega banks.
米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The biggest worry of US stock is the crash of US commercial real estate due to remote work, that is not really considered in the market still.
根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。Underlying impact is coming also from crash of Chinese real estate market. The shrinkage of China money will accelerate the further crash of commercial real estate market globally.
米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing as COVID relief funds continue to deplete.
米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The world wide stock market crash stemming from US market crash will happen in few months.
米逆イールドは健在。US reverse yield curve still presents.
先週の投資主体別売買動向は、外国人の現物買いが１兆円、先物買いが４千億円、個人の売りが１兆円となった。先週の急上昇の原動力は外国人の現物買いであることがはっきりした。Last week's trading trends by investor type revealed that foreign investors engaged in actual purchases amounting to 1 trillion yen, futures purchases of 400 billion yen, and individual sales of 1 trillion yen. It became evident that the driving force behind last week's sharp increase was the actual purchases by foreign investors.
PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE is on recovery trend while USDJPY got intervention.
ドル円はドル金利の戻りにより上昇。The USD/JPY went up due to US$ interest rate recovery.
QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT looks in halt while money stock is on down trend.
新値は日足・週足・月足とも上昇。AI予測は日足、週足、月足とも上昇。The new 3LB highs are ascending across daily, weekly, and monthly charts. AI predictions indicate an upward trend across the daily, weekly and monthly charts.
三菱商事は年初来高値達成。 MItsubishi achieved all time high.
長谷工のMACDはデッドクロス達成。Haseko achieved dead cross on MACD.
米大統領選で共和党はトランプが出馬する展開となった。ウクライナにとってトランプ政権は死を意味する。トランプが返り咲くと、世界は戦乱の混沌へと向かう可能性が高い。前回の選挙報道を詳細にフォローしてみたが、米国の大統領選は正常に運営されているとは言えない。投票者の管理もまともになされない米国の選挙が世界の運命を決めるのはあまりにも悲しい。どちらが勝つにせよ、選挙の管理は厳正にしてもらいたいものだ。厳正な選挙であれば諦めもつく。In the U.S. presidential election, the Republican Party has unfolded with the development of Trump running. For Ukraine, the Trump administration signifies a dire situation. If Trump makes a comeback, there is a high possibility that the world may head towards chaotic turmoil. Despite closely following the coverage of the previous election, it cannot be said that the U.S. presidential election is being conducted smoothly. It is disheartening that the destiny of the world is determined by the elections in the United States, where voter management is not properly carried out. Regardless of the outcome, it is crucial to have a rigorous administration of the elections. With a fair election, acceptance becomes more attainable.
米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY
NYは窓を開けて急上昇。ただ、今後１年以上も高金利が継続することを忘れ去ったような急激な上げは、早晩反転するだろう。New York saw a rapid surge with windows opened. However, the sudden sharp rise, seemingly forgetting that high interest rates will continue for over a year, will likely reverse sooner or later.
AIの革新はすさまじい。ただ、総人口の消費をシフトさせる経路はまだ不明確だ。既存のハイテク業界に要素技術として取り込まれて、そこから新しいサービスなどの形で大ヒットするのだろうか。The innovation in AI is astounding. However, the path to shift overall consumption patterns in the population remains unclear. It might get incorporated as an elemental technology in existing high-tech industries, leading to the emergence of new hit services or products from there.
現在、SPXの２５％がGAFAMにより占められている。マイクロソフトはWindows、オフィスで人類の生産性向上を飛躍的に向上させることで大ヒットした。Googleはインターネット検索エンジンから始まりネットの利便性を飛躍的に向上させることで大ヒットした。劇的な登場を遂げたLLMを誰がどのように大ヒット商品に仕立て上げるかがポイント。Currently, 25% of the SPX is dominated by GAFAM. Microsoft achieved massive success by significantly improving human productivity with Windows and Office. Google soared to success by substantially enhancing internet convenience, starting with its search engine. The key lies in how someone can fashion LLM, which has made a dramatic entrance, into a blockbuster product.
どのような商品であったとしても、人々がそれに喜んでお金を払う、企業が儲かる、新しい価値を創造するものでなければいけない。アルファゼロが人類の囲碁最強者を打ち負かしたのは記憶に新しい。しかし、現時点で、アルファゼロを応用した大ヒットサービスは出てきていない。Regardless of the product, it must be something people are willing to pay for joyfully, something profitable for companies, and something that creates new value. The recent memory of AlphaGo defeating humanity's top Go players is vivid. However, as of now, there hasn't been a hit service leveraging AlphaGo's technology.
現状、LLM大成功-->GPU増産-->NVIDIA大暴騰というシナリオで動いていると思われるが、2000年のドットコムバブルのようにならないとも限らない。Currently, it seems to be moving along the scenario of LLM's massive success leading to increased GPU production and NVIDIA's soaring, but there's no guarantee it won't turn into something akin to the dot-com bubble of 2000.
NYは窓を開けて急上昇。ただ、今後１年以上も高金利が継続することを忘れ去ったような急激な上げは、早晩反転するだろう。New York saw a rapid surge with windows opened. However, the sudden sharp rise, seemingly forgetting that high interest rates will continue for over a year, will likely reverse sooner or later.
AIの革新はすさまじい。ただ、総人口の消費をシフトさせる経路はまだ不明確だ。既存のハイテク業界に要素技術として取り込まれて、そこから新しいサービスなどの形で大ヒットするのだろうか。The innovation in AI is astounding. However, the path to shift overall consumption patterns in the population remains unclear. It might get incorporated as an elemental technology in existing high-tech industries, leading to the emergence of new hit services or products from there.
現在、SPXの２５％がGAFAMにより占められている。マイクロソフトはWindows、オフィスで人類の生産性向上を飛躍的に向上させることで大ヒットした。Googleはインターネット検索エンジンから始まりネットの利便性を飛躍的に向上させることで大ヒットした。劇的な登場を遂げたLLMを誰がどのように大ヒット商品に仕立て上げるかがポイント。Currently, 25% of the SPX is dominated by GAFAM. Microsoft achieved massive success by significantly improving human productivity with Windows and Office. Google soared to success by substantially enhancing internet convenience, starting with its search engine. The key lies in how someone can fashion LLM, which has made a dramatic entrance, into a blockbuster product.
どのような商品であったとしても、人々がそれに喜んでお金を払う、企業が儲かる、新しい価値を創造するものでなければいけない。アルファゼロが人類の囲碁最強者を打ち負かしたのは記憶に新しい。しかし、現時点で、アルファゼロを応用した大ヒットサービスは出てきていない。Regardless of the product, it must be something people are willing to pay for joyfully, something profitable for companies, and something that creates new value. The recent memory of AlphaGo defeating humanity's top Go players is vivid. However, as of now, there hasn't been a hit service leveraging AlphaGo's technology.
現状、LLM大成功-->GPU増産-->NVIDIA大暴騰というシナリオで動いていると思われるが、2000年のドットコムバブルのようにならないとも限らない。Currently, it seems to be moving along the scenario of LLM's massive success leading to increased GPU production and NVIDIA's soaring, but there's no guarantee it won't turn into something akin to the dot-com bubble of 2000.
米金利の今後 US FF rate forecast
FOMCでのパウエルの至極まともな答弁を利下げのサインと市場は曲解し、パーティーを始めた。The markets misinterpreted Powell's very reasonable responses during the FOMC as a signal for interest rate cuts and began celebrating prematurely.
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前週 This week
今週 This week
ドル金利は、パウエルの利上げ停止の可能性メッセージを曲解、急激に下落。円金利もつられて低下。The dollar interest rates rapidly declined due to a misinterpretation of Powell's message about halting interest rate hikes, causing a drop. This decline also affected yen interest rates, leading to a decrease.
JGB10Y, UST10Y
米インフレ亢進は止まった模様。一部、景気後退のサインも見えるが、全体として景気は強く、利下げを語れる段階にはないのは明らか。It appears that the rapid rise in U.S. inflation has halted. While some signs of an economic slowdown are visible, overall economic conditions remain robust, and it's evident that we're not at a stage where interest rate cuts are being discussed.
US Core Inflation Rate
[今回予測20240119］Forecast at this time
[前回予測20240112］Previous Forecast
[今回予測20240119］Forecast at this time
[前回予測20240112］Previous Forecast
Midterm Range
長期的には１年後をめどに暴落開始だが、それまでは上昇を続けるだろう。Long term forecast is negative expecting market crash after 1 year however, market may still going up until then.
Midterm Range
長期的には１年後をめどに暴落開始だが、それまでは上昇を続けるだろう。Long term forecast is negative expecting market crash after 1 year however, market may still going up until then.
