AI 株価予測 20240202の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20240202　8306MUFG

FRBは金利据え置き、パウエルの発言は早期利下げの幻想を消し去った。結果米株は下げたものの、好調なM7決算により再度上昇基調に戻った。The Federal Reserve (FRB) kept interest rates unchanged, and Powell's remarks dispelled the illusion of an early rate cut. As a result, although U.S. stocks initially declined, they resumed an upward trend due to strong M7 earnings.

一方、米銀NYCB、あおぞら銀行の米不動産向け融資の引き当て増加による減益は、昨年のSVB再来を連想させた。大手行の管理体制はリーマンショック以来厳格化しているため影響は当面地銀に限定される。ただ、政府支援が３月初旬で本当に終了すると地銀の倒産ラッシュが政権を揺るがす事態となる。On the other hand, the decline in profits due to the increased allocation of loans for U.S. real estate by major banks such as NYCB and Aozora Bank reminded investors of the SVB incident from last year. The risk appears limited to regional banks for now, as the risk management systems of major banks have been strict since the Lehman shock. However, if government support truly ends in early March, a wave of bankruptcies among regional banks could pose a serious threat to the administration.

米国ではすべての不動産価格がピークから２０－３０％落ちている。サンフランシスコはなんと８０％落ちているそうだ。In the United States, all real estate prices have dropped by 20-30% from their peak. San Francisco, astonishingly, has experienced an 80% decline.

海外店･オフショアの貸出金が22年3月末から23年9月末にかけ２６兆円から３５兆円に、９兆円増加（大部分米国不動産？）。As of the end of September 2023, loans from overseas branches and offshore operations have increased from ¥26 trillion to ¥35 trillion, marking a ¥9 trillion rise, with a significant portion likely attributed to U.S. real estate.

貸し倒れ引当金は同期間７４００億円から１．４兆円に７０００億円ほど増加。ざっと８％が引き当てされた。The provision for loan losses during the same period increased by approximately ¥700 billion, rising from ¥740 billion to ¥1.4 trillion. Roughly 8% of the total loans have been set aside as provisions.

今般のあおぞらを受けて更に積み増すか？また、これから起こる米国不動産暴落による実際の焦げ付きは１０％以内で収まるか？バイデン政権の地銀支援が３月で本当に打ち切られるかが焦点。打ち切られると一気に投げ売りと大暴落が全米に広がる。最低の大統領選の年になるだろう。ただ、たとえ支援が続いても全米の地銀を全て支援し続けられるだけの余力があるかどうかも問題。In light of the recent developments at Aozora Bank, there is speculation about further increases in provisions. The actual impact of the impending U.S. real estate collapse on these loans and whether it can be contained within a 10% range remain uncertain. The key focus is on whether the Biden administration will indeed terminate support for regional banks in March. If support is cut, a widespread sell-off and a significant market downturn could occur nationwide, making it a challenging year for the presidency. Even if support continues, the question of whether there is enough capacity to sustain assistance for all regional banks across the U.S. is also a significant concern.

バイデン政権は今回のNYCBを受けて大騒ぎだろう。早めに手を打たないと雪崩（ファイアーセール）が始まると止められない。今週にも支援期限延長の何らかのアナウンスがあるのではないか。Given the recent situation with NYCB, the Biden administration is likely to be alarmed. Taking preventive measures sooner rather than later is crucial to avoid an uncontrollable avalanche (fire sale). There might be an announcement regarding an extension of support deadlines this week to address the situation.

中国株の下落は一旦落ち着いてきている模様。It appears that the decline in Chinese stocks has temporarily eased.

MUFGについては株式指数につられ下落したが、買い支えが継続し、上昇トレンドを守っている。Regarding MUFG, it initially declined in line with the stock index but has been supported by buying, maintaining an upward trend.

長谷工は新値陰転１本、三菱商事とも、枠１／３を買った。Haseko Corporation has turned around with a new low, and positions were bought for one-third of the allocation in both Mitsubishi Corporation and Haseko Corporation.

決算発表スケジュールFinancial Results Announcement Schedule

８３０６　MUFG　２／５　Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) (8306): February 5

８０５８　三菱商事　２／６　Mitsubishi Corporation (8058): February 6

１８０８　長谷工　２／９　Haseko Corporation (1808): February 9

M7の絶好調決算を受けて、半導体ETFも枠１／３購入。Facing accelerating result of M7, I purchased semi-conductor ETF JPN for the 1/3 of the limit.

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は0。長期枠利用は4/5。Trade details are here.　0　trading limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 4/5.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega banks is more characterized by the uplift of value stocks rather than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega banks have uniformly risen, and not just mega banks but also sectors like construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued and overlooked, have experienced significant surges. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, much like what happened with mega banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The biggest worry of US stock is the crash of US commercial real estate due to remote work, that is not really considered in the market still.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。Underlying impact is coming also from crash of Chinese real estate market. The shrinkage of China money will accelerate the further crash of commercial real estate market globally.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing as COVID relief funds continue to deplete.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The world wide stock market crash stemming from US market crash will happen in few months.

米逆イールドは健在。US reverse yield curve still presents.

現物買いは継続４０００億円。先物売りは９０００億円。Foreign investors continued to buy stock in cash for JPY400bn. Futures were sold for JPY900bn.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE is on recovery trend while USDJPY got intervention.

ドル円はドル金利の戻りにより上昇。The USD/JPY went up due to US$ interest rate recovery.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT looks in halt while money stock is on down trend.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。Base Money increase is teh result of the unlimited government support against the local banks.

新値は日足・週足・月足とも上昇。AI予測は日足、週足、月足とも上昇。The new 3LB highs are ascending across daily, weekly, and monthly charts. AI predictions indicate an upward trend across the daily, weekly and monthly charts.

三菱商事は年初来高値達成。 MItsubishi achieved all time high.

長谷工のMACDはデッドクロス達成。Haseko achieved dead cross on MACD.

米大統領選で共和党はトランプが出馬する展開となった。ウクライナにとってトランプ政権は死を意味する。トランプが返り咲くと、世界は戦乱の混沌へと向かう可能性が高い。前回の選挙報道を詳細にフォローしてみたが、米国の大統領選は正常に運営されているとは言えない。投票者の管理もまともになされない米国の選挙が世界の運命を決めるのはあまりにも悲しい。どちらが勝つにせよ、選挙の管理は厳正にしてもらいたいものだ。厳正な選挙であれば諦めもつく。In the U.S. presidential election, the Republican Party has unfolded with the development of Trump running. For Ukraine, the Trump administration signifies a dire situation. If Trump makes a comeback, there is a high possibility that the world may head towards chaotic turmoil. Despite closely following the coverage of the previous election, it cannot be said that the U.S. presidential election is being conducted smoothly. It is disheartening that the destiny of the world is determined by the elections in the United States, where voter management is not properly carried out. Regardless of the outcome, it is crucial to have a rigorous administration of the elections. With a fair election, acceptance becomes more attainable.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

NYは窓を開けて急上昇。ただ、今後１年以上も高金利が継続することを忘れ去ったような急激な上げは、早晩反転するだろう。New York saw a rapid surge with windows opened. However, the sudden sharp rise, seemingly forgetting that high interest rates will continue for over a year, will likely reverse sooner or later.

AIの革新はすさまじい。ただ、総人口の消費をシフトさせる経路はまだ不明確だ。既存のハイテク業界に要素技術として取り込まれて、そこから新しいサービスなどの形で大ヒットするのだろうか。The innovation in AI is astounding. However, the path to shift overall consumption patterns in the population remains unclear. It might get incorporated as an elemental technology in existing high-tech industries, leading to the emergence of new hit services or products from there.

現在、SPXの２５％がGAFAMにより占められている。マイクロソフトはWindows、オフィスで人類の生産性向上を飛躍的に向上させることで大ヒットした。Googleはインターネット検索エンジンから始まりネットの利便性を飛躍的に向上させることで大ヒットした。劇的な登場を遂げたLLMを誰がどのように大ヒット商品に仕立て上げるかがポイント。Currently, 25% of the SPX is dominated by GAFAM. Microsoft achieved massive success by significantly improving human productivity with Windows and Office. Google soared to success by substantially enhancing internet convenience, starting with its search engine. The key lies in how someone can fashion LLM, which has made a dramatic entrance, into a blockbuster product.

どのような商品であったとしても、人々がそれに喜んでお金を払う、企業が儲かる、新しい価値を創造するものでなければいけない。アルファゼロが人類の囲碁最強者を打ち負かしたのは記憶に新しい。しかし、現時点で、アルファゼロを応用した大ヒットサービスは出てきていない。Regardless of the product, it must be something people are willing to pay for joyfully, something profitable for companies, and something that creates new value. The recent memory of AlphaGo defeating humanity's top Go players is vivid. However, as of now, there hasn't been a hit service leveraging AlphaGo's technology.

現状、LLM大成功-->GPU増産-->NVIDIA大暴騰というシナリオで動いていると思われるが、2000年のドットコムバブルのようにならないとも限らない。Currently, it seems to be moving along the scenario of LLM's massive success leading to increased GPU production and NVIDIA's soaring, but there's no guarantee it won't turn into something akin to the dot-com bubble of 2000.

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

FOMCでのパウエルの至極まともな答弁を利下げのサインと市場は曲解し、パーティーを始めた。The markets misinterpreted Powell's very reasonable responses during the FOMC as a signal for interest rate cuts and began celebrating prematurely.