AI 株価予測 20240426の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20240426　

今週は、先週の急落への自律反発があった。メガバンクは指数よりも落ち方は緩やかで、戻りは早く、買い圧力を感じることが出来た。This week, there was a self-sustained rebound from last week's sharp decline. The mega-banks experienced a milder drop compared to the index, rebounded quickly, and felt buying pressure.

その背景には、４月２６日（金）昼の日銀金利決定会合があった。円安が１６０円に向かおうとする危機的な状況の元、１００兆ドルの介入資金ではもう対応が限界がある。財務省と日銀がタッグを組んで、日銀の利上げの後方支援を受けながら財務省が介入し、円安をストップすると誰もが期待した。日銀については、翌日物金利は変更しないであろうが、１０年債の買いオペレーション月額６兆円を減額してくると予想された。Against this backdrop, there was the Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate decision meeting on April 26th (Friday) at noon. Amid a crisis situation where the yen was poised to reach 160 yen against the dollar, it was understood that the intervention fund of 100 trillion dollars had reached its limit. It was hoped that the Ministry of Finance, in collaboration with the BOJ, would intervene to stop the depreciation of the yen by receiving support from the BOJ's interest rate hike. Regarding the BOJ, it was expected that the overnight interest rate would remain unchanged the next day, but there was anticipation that the monthly purchase operation of 10-year bonds would be reduced by 6 trillion yen.

このためメガバンクは週初めから上昇、日銀発表のあった金曜日午後１PM頃には、ON金利不変のアナウンスで一旦下落した。しかし、３：３０PMからの植田会見では１０年債買いオペ減額について利上げ的なコメントがあるとの期待から半値戻しを達成。As a result, mega-banks rose from the beginning of the week, but experienced a temporary decline around 1:00 PM on Friday after the BOJ announcement of unchanged overnight interest rates. However, they achieved a partial recovery due to expectations of hawkish comments regarding the reduction of the 10-year bond purchase operation during the press conference by Ueda from 3:30 PM.

ところが、驚いたことに、植田の会見は、全て変更なしのゼロ回答であった。記者の質問にも為替は懸念すべき水準ではないと言い放った。結果、ドル円は１６０円を目指して急騰。However, surprisingly, Ueda's press conference was entirely devoid of changes, with zero responses to all questions. He even stated that the exchange rate was not at a concerning level. As a result, the dollar-yen soared towards 160 yen.

銀行株は幾許かの利上げを期待して、週初から上昇してきた。しかし、日銀金利決定会合の完全ゼロ回答を受けて、来週水曜日からの大幅下落が懸念される。Bank stocks had been rising since the beginning of the week, anticipating some interest rate hikes. However, following the BOJ's completely unresponsive decision, there are concerns about a significant decline starting next Wednesday.

大方の期待を裏切って利上げが無かった過去のケースは2022/12/20-2023/3/10。The past cases where expectations were disappointed by the lack of interest rate hikes were on December 20, 2022, and March 10, 2023.

・2022/12/20　黒田が岸田に呼ばれ、円安是正のために25bp利上げ　MUFG急騰 On December 20, 2022, Kuroda was summoned by Kishida and raised interest rates by 25 basis points to correct the depreciation of the yen, causing a sharp rise in MUFG.
・2023/3/10　新任植田が利上げすると思っていたが黒田の踏襲で緩和継続　ＭＵＦＧ急落On March 10, 2023, despite expectations for a rate hike under the new appointee Ueda, Kuroda continued easing, leading to a sharp decline in MUFG.

今回のケース、植田が円防衛のために利上げすると思って梯子を外されたメガ。見れば見るほど、あまりにも酷似している。In this current case, Mega Bank, which had expected Ueda to raise rates for yen defense, finds itself in a similar situation of having the rug pulled out from under them. The resemblance becomes more apparent upon closer examination.

一方、銀行株以外の銘柄については懸念されていた利上げがなく、緩和継続となったため、上昇が期待される。On the other hand, for stocks other than bank shares, concerns about interest rate hikes were alleviated as there were none, and the continuation of easing was confirmed, leading to expectations of an uptrend.

果たして、今週の米株の決算は非常に良かった。来週もAmazon、AMD、Appleなどの決算がある。その結果、米株の下落は止まりそうではある。Indeed, the earnings reports for US stocks this week were very positive. With upcoming earnings from companies like Amazon, AMD, and Apple next week, it seems likely that the decline in US stocks will come to a halt.

メガバンクは一様に利上げ期待から上昇した。The mega-banks rose uniformly on expectations of interest rate hikes.

新値日足は変わらず。AI予測は日足は下落、週足、月足は上昇。New daily candlesticks remain unchanged. AI predictions indicate a decline in daily candlesticks but an increase in weekly and monthly candlesticks.

中国株は年初から再上昇を始めているが、不動産問題が更に火を噴く可能性が高く、一時的な戻りと考えられる。Chinese stocks have been rebounding since the beginning of the year, but there is a high possibility of further escalation of the real estate issue, suggesting a temporary rebound.

半導体は急落後、自律反発。

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は　０／５。長期枠利用は０／５。Trading details are as follows: ０/5 trading limit utilization for short-term trades and 0/5 for long-term holdings.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

日銀の金利決定会合は結果現状維持だった。日銀は急激な円安を利上げにより防衛するつもりは全く無いことを表明した。

日本も決算発表が順次始まるがピークは５月中旬。EPSが増えるかに注目。In Japan Q4 result announcements are going to start gradually and will peak around mid May. Need to focus on EPS advancement.

US＄は未だ100bpの逆イールド状態。日本円は100bpの順イールド。The US dollar is still in a 100bp reverse yield curve, while the Japanese yen has a 100bp forward yield curve.

米金利は年内利下げ可能性の低下に伴い上昇したが、ハイテクの好調な決算の安心感からか上昇。日本の金利は急激な円安から日銀が利上げするのではとの思惑から上昇したが、結果現状維持だったので、反落した。

外国人投資家の現物売りが５０００億円、先物売りが５０００億円で、外国人売りが合計１兆円。個人投資家買いが１兆円。悪い構図になってきている感じはある。年金リバランス売りは本当に終了したようだ。

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

米逆イールドは健在。The US reverse yield curve remains intact.

ドル円はパウエルの利上げ長期化をネタに再び円安。しかし、１５２円以上は財務省の介入が入る。The USD/JPY pair depreciated again on the news of Powell's prolonged interest rate hike. However, if it surpasses 152 yen, intervention by the Ministry of Finance is expected.

米金利、円金利は上昇。US and Japanese interest rates have risen.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

三菱商事は小動き。Mitsubishi Corporation is relatively stable.

長谷工は下落トレンドから一時離脱したが、また戻りそうだ。Haseko momentarily departed from its downtrend but seems to be returning.

ウクライナは兵器不足で劣勢に回っている。ウクライナへの兵器支援は遅々として進んでいない。Ukraine is at a disadvantage due to a shortage of weapons. Assistance to Ukraine with weapons is still lagging.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

今回の下落がどこまで掘るか。昨年のケースだと、全治３か月。How far this downturn will go remains uncertain. Based on last year's case, the recovery period could be around three months.

３か月でも戻るか、米株の全面崩壊で全治５年になるか。米株がハードランディングする理由はいくつもある。コロナ給付預金の枯渇、失業率の立ち上がり、不動産崩壊開始、地銀連続破綻と政府支援の限界、中国経済破綻で世界GDPの激減、もしトラ不安などなど。なにせ、米国のコロナ支援はGDPの２５％だったことが重要。この異常な刺激策の副作用はリーマンショック後の中銀BS拡大に加えて未知の世界。It could rebound within three months, or if there's a complete collapse of the US stock market, it could take five years for recovery. There are several reasons why the US stock market could experience a hard landing, such as the depletion of coronavirus relief funds, rising unemployment rates, the beginning of a real estate collapse, consecutive failures of regional banks reaching the limits of government support, a sharp decline in global GDP due to the collapse of the Chinese economy, and geopolitical tensions. After all, the fact that US coronavirus relief amounted to 25% of GDP is significant. The side effects of this abnormal stimulus package, added to the expansion of central bank balance sheets after the Lehman shock, lead to an unknown territory.

ハードランディングを防ぐためにパウエルが逆イールド解消まで利下げすると、皮肉にも、ハードランディング開始の狼煙となる。ハードランディングのもう一つのトリガーである失業率が実質上昇傾向にあるが、しかしこのタイミングで利下げすると、インフレを２％以下にできないジレンマ。Ironically, if Powell lowers interest rates until the yield curve inversion is resolved to prevent a hard landing, it may ironically signal the beginning of the hard landing. Another trigger for a hard landing is the upward trend in the unemployment rate, but lowering interest rates at this point creates a dilemma of not being able to keep inflation below 2%.

３月９月は外人売りが出やすいアノマリーも。March and September tend to see anomalies where foreign selling is more likely.

一方、ＡＩハイテクの物語は、未だ、最終消費者までのサイクルが完成しておらず、まだ物語ベースでの買いが続いていた。NVIDIAも、データセンター向けのサイクルだけでは成長に限界があるのを自ら示している。On the other hand, the AI high-tech narrative hasn't fully completed its cycle to reach the end consumer, and buying based on the narrative continues. NVIDIA, for example, has shown that growth is limited solely to the data center cycle.

植田は基本、国民生活より供給者側を支援するアベノミクス側の人。通貨の番人など、とっくに返上している。いくら緩和してもインフレにならなかった日本をインフレにしてくれた円安を、やすやすと手放すことは無いかも。株価の本格崩壊が始まったら、異次元緩和の延長もあるか。もしくは、解除後もカーブ実質介入しまくり等々。Mr. Ueda fundamentally supports the supply side of Abenomics rather than the livelihoods of the citizens. He has long since given up the role of currency guardian, among others. It's possible that he won't easily give up the yen depreciation that brought inflation to Japan, which had failed to materialize no matter how much easing was done. If a full-scale collapse in stock prices begins, there may be an extension of unconventional easing measures. Alternatively, there could be continued substantial intervention in the yield curve even after the tapering.

色々考えると、不確定要素満載で、次のトレンドが現れるまで一旦手じまいという人も多いだろう。With so many uncertainties, many people might choose to sit on the sidelines until the next trend emerges.