AI 株価予測 20240405の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20240405　

１週間飛ばしてしまったので、過去２週間を振り返る。Looking back over the past two weeks, since I skipped a week:

３月２５日月曜日の週は、３月の最終週で、週初からリバランスの売りが継続。権利付き最終取引日の２７日もさえない動きだった。権利落ち日からはもリバランスが更に続いて株価はさらに下落した。The week starting Monday, March 25th, was the final week of March, and selling pressure from rebalancing continued from the beginning of the week. Even on the rights expiration date of the 27th, there was little movement. After the rights expiration, rebalancing continued further, and stock prices fell even more.

４月１日月曜日には外国人からの怒涛の買いが入る可能性も想定していたが、実際は、日経平均丸ごと大きく売られ、MUFGも大きく下落した。先物売りの仕掛けがあり、日経平均は大暴落、MUFGも60円近く下落した。その後、反発するも下落トレンドからは抜けられず、パウエルの高金利維持発言で下落。On Monday, April 1st, there was anticipation of a surge in buying from foreigners, but in reality, the Nikkei average was heavily sold off, with MUFG also experiencing a significant decline. Triggered by futures selling, the Nikkei average experienced a major crash, with MUFG dropping nearly 60 yen. Although there was a rebound afterward, the market couldn't break free from the downtrend, and it fell again following Powell's remarks about maintaining high interest rates.

週末の失業率発表でNY、日経平均先物はパウエル下落分は半値戻ししたので、4月15日月曜日は高く始まる可能性はある。下落チャネルから離脱できるかどうかが重要。With the unemployment rate announcement over the weekend, NY and Nikkei average futures recovered half of the Powell-induced losses, so there is a possibility that Monday, April 15th, will start on a high note. It's crucial whether the market can break away from the downtrend channel.

みずほFGは未だ下落トレンドだが、三井住友、りそなは下落チャネルから離脱開始している。Mizuho FG is still in a downtrend, but Sumitomo Mitsui and Resona have begun to break away from the downtrend channel.

三菱商事も調整中。日経平均の下落トレンドが反転しないと回復は難しいか。Mitsubishi Corporation is also undergoing adjustment. Recovery might be difficult unless the downtrend of the Nikkei average reverses.

新値日足は反転。月足は続伸。AI予測は日足は下落、週足、月足は上昇。Three line break shows a reversal, while monthly candlesticks continue to rise. AI predictions indicate a decline on the daily timeframe but an upward trend on the weekly and monthly timeframes.

米株は、パウエルの金利高キープ発言で急落した分が、強い労働市場データで完全にはオフセットされていない。また、今回のダブルトップは僅かに上昇基調とは言え、ダブルトップ。チャートは明らかに崩れてきた。The recent sharp decline triggered by Powell's hawkish interest rate stance has not been fully offset by the robust labor market. Moreover, the current double top pattern, albeit slightly bullish, indicates a weakening trend in the charts.

失業率だが、実際の所、正規雇用が減少し、非正規雇用が拡大しているため、数字上は改善しているものの、雇用の内容は悪化している。Looking back over the past twAs for the unemployment rate, in reality, regular employment is decreasing while non-regular employment is expanding. Therefore, although there is an improvement in the numbers, the quality of employment is worsening.

中国株は年初から再上昇を始めているが、不動産問題が更に火を噴く可能性が高く、一時的な戻りと考えられる。Chinese stocks have been on the rise since the beginning of the year, but there is a high possibility of further escalation of the real estate issue, which could be considered a temporary rebound.

三菱重工は上昇チャネルから離脱。株式分割後に急騰したが、その後下落してきた。Mitsubishi Heavy Industry got out of uprising channel. Note that it went sharp after stock split but came down.

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は　０／３。長期枠利用は０／５。Details of the trades are as follows: Utilization of trading limits are 0/3 being used for short-term trades and 0/5 for long-term holdings.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega banks is more characterized by the uplift of value stocks rather than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega banks have uniformly risen, and not just mega banks but also sectors like construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued and overlooked, have experienced significant surges. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, much like what happened with mega banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The biggest worry of US stock is the crash of US commercial real estate due to remote work, that is not really considered in the market still.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。Underlying impact is coming also from crash of Chinese real estate market. The shrinkage of China money will accelerate the further crash of commercial real estate market globally.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing as COVID relief funds continue to deplete.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The world wide stock market crash stemming from US market crash will happen in few months.

来週は１０日水曜日夜９：３０PMにインフレ率の発表があり、また日本はSQでもある。NYの方向が注目される。

米逆イールドは健在。US reverse yield curve still presents.

外国人投資家の現物買いはマイナス2000億円。加えて先物売り１兆円。Foreign investors' spot purchases are at a deficit of 200 billion yen. Additionally, futures selling amounts to 1 trillion yen.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE is on recovery trend while USDJPY got intervention.

ドル円はパウエルの利上げ長期化をネタに再び円安。しかし、１５２円以上は財務省の介入が入る。The USD/JPY pair is depreciating again on the news of Powell's prolonged interest rate hike. However, if it surpasses 152 yen, the Ministry of Finance will likely intervene.

米金利、円金利は上昇。US$ interest rate and JPY interest rate have gone up.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT looks in halt while money stock is on down trend.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。Base Money increase is the result of the unlimited government support against the local banks.

長谷工は下降レンジへ逆戻り。Haseko went back down to descending channel.

もしトラは多分現実にはならないだろう。その理由は、共和党には２割程度のトランプアレルギーが居て、大統領選時点ではトランプでなく、バイデンに投票するか、棄権するだろうからだ。トランプ、バイデンは互角なので、トランプから２割の票が抜ければ、バイデンは自動的に当選する。 It's unlikely that a Trump comeback will materialize. The reason is that about 20% of the Republican Party is allergic to Trump, and at the time of the presidential election, they are likely to either vote for Biden or abstain from voting. Since Trump and Biden are evenly matched, if 20% of the votes shift away from Trump, Biden will automatically win.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

今回の下落がどこまで掘るか。昨年のケースだと、全治３か月。How far this downturn will go remains uncertain. Based on last year's case, the recovery period could be around three months.

３か月でも戻るか、米株の全面崩壊で全治５年になるか。米株がハードランディングする理由はいくつもある。コロナ給付預金の枯渇、失業率の立ち上がり、不動産崩壊開始、地銀連続破綻と政府支援の限界、中国経済破綻で世界GDPの激減、もしトラ不安などなど。なんせ、米国のコロナ支援はGDPの２５％だったことが重要。この異常な刺激策の副作用はリーマンショック後の中銀BS拡大に加えて未知の世界。It could rebound within three months, or if there's a complete collapse of the US stock market, it could take five years for recovery. There are several reasons why the US stock market could experience a hard landing, such as the depletion of coronavirus relief funds, rising unemployment rates, the beginning of a real estate collapse, consecutive failures of regional banks reaching the limits of government support, a sharp decline in global GDP due to the collapse of the Chinese economy, and geopolitical tensions. After all, the fact that US coronavirus relief amounted to 25% of GDP is significant. The side effects of this abnormal stimulus package, added to the expansion of central bank balance sheets after the Lehman shock, lead to an unknown territory.

ハードランディングを防ぐためにパウエルが逆イールド解消まで利下げすると、皮肉にも、ハードランディング開始の狼煙となる。ハードランディングのもう一つのトリガーである失業率が実質上昇傾向にあるが、しかしこのタイミングで利下げすると、インフレを２％以下にできないジレンマ。Ironically, if Powell lowers interest rates until the yield curve inversion is resolved to prevent a hard landing, it may ironically signal the beginning of the hard landing. Another trigger for a hard landing is the upward trend in the unemployment rate, but lowering interest rates at this point creates a dilemma of not being able to keep inflation below 2%.

３月９月は外人売りが出やすいアノマリーも。March and September tend to see anomalies where foreign selling is more likely.

一方、ＡＩハイテクの物語は、未だ、最終消費者までのサイクルが完成しておらず、まだ物語ベースでの買いが続いていた。NVIDIAも、データセンター向けのサイクルだけでは成長に限界があるのを自ら示している。On the other hand, the AI high-tech narrative hasn't fully completed its cycle to reach the end consumer, and buying based on the narrative continues. NVIDIA, for example, has shown that growth is limited solely to the data center cycle.

植田は基本、国民生活より供給者側を支援するアベノミクス側の人。通貨の番人など、とっくに返上している。いくら緩和してもインフレにならなかった日本をインフレにしてくれた円安を、やすやすと手放すことは無いかも。株価の本格崩壊が始まったら、異次元緩和の延長もあるか。もしくは、解除後もカーブ実質介入しまくり等々。Mr. Ueda fundamentally supports the supply side of Abenomics rather than the livelihoods of the citizens. He has long since given up the role of currency guardian, among others. It's possible that he won't easily give up the yen depreciation that brought inflation to Japan, which had failed to materialize no matter how much easing was done. If a full-scale collapse in stock prices begins, there may be an extension of unconventional easing measures. Alternatively, there could be continued substantial intervention in the yield curve even after the tapering.

色々考えると、不確定要素満載で、次のトレンドが現れるまで一旦手じまいという人も多いだろう。With so many uncertainties, many people might choose to sit on the sidelines until the next trend emerges.

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

FOMCでのパウエルの至極まともな答弁を利下げのサインと市場は曲解し、パーティーを始めた。The markets misinterpreted Powell's very reasonable responses during the FOMC as a signal for interest rate cuts and began celebrating prematurely.

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