AI 株価予測 20240412の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20240412　

４月８日の週は米インフレ率の発表が水曜日にあった。発表翌日木曜日、金利が上昇したのにも関わらず、SPX、NASDQが上昇するという騙しがあった。その後金曜日、インフレは鎮まる気配がないこと、利上げが長期化するとの再認識から、SPX、NASDQは下落した。The week of April 8th saw the announcement of US inflation rates on Wednesday. Despite the subsequent rise in interest rates on Thursday, there was a deceptive rise in the SPX and NASDAQ. However, on Friday, with no sign of inflation abating and a renewed realization of prolonged rate hikes, both the SPX and NASDAQ experienced declines.

特にダウが大きく下落した。SPX、NASDQにも下落のサインが見える。Particularly, the Dow suffered a significant decline, and signs of decline were also evident in the SPX and NASDAQ.

続いて、日経平均先物の下落。Then it was followed by decline of the Nikkei average futures.

メガバンクは一様に上昇トレンド内に留まったが、ADRは一様に更に1.5%程、下落した。While mega-banks uniformly remained within an upward trend, ADRs uniformly experienced further declines of around 1.5%.

JPMorganの決算発表があり、７％増益であったにも関わらず、今後の金利収入見通しについて慎重な予測をしただけで、大幅な下落となった。昨年11月から大きく上昇した市場は、調整の機会を待っていたようだ。Despite JPMorgan's earnings announcement of a 7% increase, cautious forecasts regarding future interest income led to a significant decline. The market, which had risen significantly since November of last year, seems to have been awaiting an adjustment.

新値日足は変わらず。AI予測は日足は下落、週足、月足は上昇。New daily candlesticks remain unchanged. AI predictions indicate a decline in daily candlesticks but an increase in weekly and monthly candlesticks.

結論、月曜日は、高く始まるなら一旦手じまい。下落して始まるなら、放置して、今後２カ月程度をめどに買い場を探す。今回の下落は急激な上昇の調整で、年末に向けては下落後再上昇していくことを想定している。本格的な下落は来年であろう。In conclusion, if Monday starts with a high, it might be prudent to temporarily withdraw. If it starts with a decline, it might be advisable to leave it and look for buying opportunities over the next two months. This decline appears to be a correction of rapid rises, with an assumption that there will be a rebound after the decline towards the end of the year. A significant decline is anticipated for next year.

失業率だが、実際の所、正規雇用が減少し、非正規雇用が拡大しているため、数字上は改善しているものの、雇用の内容は悪化している。Regarding the unemployment rate, while there is an improvement in the numbers, the quality of employment is worsening due to a decrease in regular employment and an increase in non-regular employment.

米国の雇用統計はバイデン政権の元、移民の急増で全体としては失業率は維持されている。ただ、既存の国民の失業率は低迷し、正規雇用から非正規雇用への雇用の質の低下が起こっている。過去、正規雇用から非正規雇用へのシフトが発生したタイミングで景気後退となっている。Under the Biden administration, US employment statistics have been maintained due to a rapid increase in immigration. However, the unemployment rate among existing citizens remains stagnant, and there is a decline in the quality of employment as it shifts from regular to non-regular. Historically, when such a shift from regular to non-regular employment occurs, it has led to an economic downturn.

中国株は年初から再上昇を始めているが、不動産問題が更に火を噴く可能性が高く、一時的な戻りと考えられる。Chinese stocks have been rebounding since the beginning of the year, but there is a high possibility of further escalation of the real estate issue, suggesting a temporary rebound.

三菱重工は上昇チャネルから離脱。株式分割後に急騰したが、その後下落してきた。Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has departed from its upward channel. Despite a sharp rise after the stock split, it has since declined.

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は　３／５。長期枠利用は０／５。Trading details are as follows: 3/5 trading limit utilization for short-term trades and 0/5 for long-term holdings.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

来週は大きな経済指標はなく、その次の週に日銀金利決定会合、米コアPCE、米GDPなどがある。There are no major economic indicators next week, with the Bank of Japan interest rate decision meeting, US Core PCE, US GDP, etc., scheduled for the following week.

また、GS、BAC、MSなど、米銀決算発表が、月、火と連続する。Additionally, earnings announcements for US banks such as GS, BAC, and MS will be consecutive on Monday and Tuesday.

日本も決算発表が順次始まるがピークは５月中旬。EPSが増えるかに注目。In Japan Q4 result announcements are going to start gradually and will peak around mid May. Need to focus on EPS advancement.

US＄は未だ100bpの逆イールド状態。日本円は100bpの順イールド。The US dollar is still in a 100bp reverse yield curve, while the Japanese yen has a 100bp forward yield curve.

強いCPI、FOMC議事録が利上げ期間延長を市場に認識させたため、ドル長期金利は上昇、つれてドル円もドル高に振れたためか、円金利もつられて上昇。Strong CPI and FOMC minutes have led to market recognition of prolonged interest rate hikes, resulting in an increase in long-term US dollar interest rates, which has also led to an increase in the Japanese yen interest rates.

外国人投資家の現物買い１兆円が戻ってきた。年金等のファンドのリバランス売りは継続。Foreign investors' cash purchases have returned by 1 trillion yen. Rebalancing sales by funds such as pension funds continue.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

米逆イールドは健在。The US reverse yield curve remains intact.

ドル円はパウエルの利上げ長期化をネタに再び円安。しかし、１５２円以上は財務省の介入が入る。The USD/JPY pair depreciated again on the news of Powell's prolonged interest rate hike. However, if it surpasses 152 yen, intervention by the Ministry of Finance is expected.

米金利、円金利は上昇。US and Japanese interest rates have risen.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

三菱商事は小動き。Mitsubishi Corporation is relatively stable.

長谷工は下落トレンドから一時離脱したが、また戻りそうだ。Haseko momentarily departed from its downtrend but seems to be returning.

ウクライナは兵器不足で劣勢に回っている。ウクライナへの兵器支援は遅々として進んでいない。Ukraine is at a disadvantage due to a shortage of weapons. Assistance to Ukraine with weapons is still lagging.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

今回の下落がどこまで掘るか。昨年のケースだと、全治３か月。How far this downturn will go remains uncertain. Based on last year's case, the recovery period could be around three months.

３か月でも戻るか、米株の全面崩壊で全治５年になるか。米株がハードランディングする理由はいくつもある。コロナ給付預金の枯渇、失業率の立ち上がり、不動産崩壊開始、地銀連続破綻と政府支援の限界、中国経済破綻で世界GDPの激減、もしトラ不安などなど。なにせ、米国のコロナ支援はGDPの２５％だったことが重要。この異常な刺激策の副作用はリーマンショック後の中銀BS拡大に加えて未知の世界。It could rebound within three months, or if there's a complete collapse of the US stock market, it could take five years for recovery. There are several reasons why the US stock market could experience a hard landing, such as the depletion of coronavirus relief funds, rising unemployment rates, the beginning of a real estate collapse, consecutive failures of regional banks reaching the limits of government support, a sharp decline in global GDP due to the collapse of the Chinese economy, and geopolitical tensions. After all, the fact that US coronavirus relief amounted to 25% of GDP is significant. The side effects of this abnormal stimulus package, added to the expansion of central bank balance sheets after the Lehman shock, lead to an unknown territory.

ハードランディングを防ぐためにパウエルが逆イールド解消まで利下げすると、皮肉にも、ハードランディング開始の狼煙となる。ハードランディングのもう一つのトリガーである失業率が実質上昇傾向にあるが、しかしこのタイミングで利下げすると、インフレを２％以下にできないジレンマ。Ironically, if Powell lowers interest rates until the yield curve inversion is resolved to prevent a hard landing, it may ironically signal the beginning of the hard landing. Another trigger for a hard landing is the upward trend in the unemployment rate, but lowering interest rates at this point creates a dilemma of not being able to keep inflation below 2%.

３月９月は外人売りが出やすいアノマリーも。March and September tend to see anomalies where foreign selling is more likely.

一方、ＡＩハイテクの物語は、未だ、最終消費者までのサイクルが完成しておらず、まだ物語ベースでの買いが続いていた。NVIDIAも、データセンター向けのサイクルだけでは成長に限界があるのを自ら示している。On the other hand, the AI high-tech narrative hasn't fully completed its cycle to reach the end consumer, and buying based on the narrative continues. NVIDIA, for example, has shown that growth is limited solely to the data center cycle.

植田は基本、国民生活より供給者側を支援するアベノミクス側の人。通貨の番人など、とっくに返上している。いくら緩和してもインフレにならなかった日本をインフレにしてくれた円安を、やすやすと手放すことは無いかも。株価の本格崩壊が始まったら、異次元緩和の延長もあるか。もしくは、解除後もカーブ実質介入しまくり等々。Mr. Ueda fundamentally supports the supply side of Abenomics rather than the livelihoods of the citizens. He has long since given up the role of currency guardian, among others. It's possible that he won't easily give up the yen depreciation that brought inflation to Japan, which had failed to materialize no matter how much easing was done. If a full-scale collapse in stock prices begins, there may be an extension of unconventional easing measures. Alternatively, there could be continued substantial intervention in the yield curve even after the tapering.

色々考えると、不確定要素満載で、次のトレンドが現れるまで一旦手じまいという人も多いだろう。With so many uncertainties, many people might choose to sit on the sidelines until the next trend emerges.

中国株は未だ復活していない。不動産不況から始まるバブル崩壊はまだ始まったばかりかもしれない。Chinese stocks have not yet recovered. The bubble collapse starting from the real estate recession may have just begun.

NY株は銀行株、IT株のすべてに渡り、大幅下落。NY stocks, including bank and IT stocks, all experienced significant declines.

NYのVIXは急騰。NY VIX surged.

FEAR＆GREEDは久々に中立へ。FEAR & GREED returned to neutral for the first time in a while.

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

利下げが間近という市場の認識は、インフレ率発表を見て打ち砕かれ、年内の利下げは無いと予測する金融機関も出てきた。市場の楽観は悲観に変ろうとしている。The market perception that rate cuts are imminent was shattered by the announcement of inflation rates, and some financial institutions are predicting no rate cuts for the remainder of the year. The market's optimism is turning into pessimism.

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