AI 株価予測 20240524の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast -20240524

水曜日時間外のNVIDIA決算は果たして８０％の粗利益率、４倍近くの増益でアナリスト予想を若干上回り、株価は１０％近く上昇した。木曜日の市場はしかし、異様な反応を示した。NVIDIA以外は下落、指数は大陰線を示した。時間差で、日本株は水曜日上昇したものの、木曜日下落した。NVIDIA's after-hours earnings report on Wednesday slightly exceeded analysts' expectations with an 80% gross profit margin and nearly quadrupled profits, causing the stock price to rise by nearly 10%. However, the market on Thursday reacted unusually. Aside from NVIDIA, other stocks fell, and the indices showed a significant bearish candlestick. In response, Japanese stocks rose on Wednesday but fell on Thursday.

金曜日は木曜日の下落が本物かを占う重要な日であった。米株は木曜日の大陰線を否定する上昇は見せず、かろうじてNASDAQが下落前のレベルに戻した。Friday was a crucial day to determine whether Thursday's decline was genuine. The U.S. stock market did not show a rebound that would negate Thursday's significant bearish movement, with only NASDAQ barely returning to its pre-decline level.

先週はまた、FOMC議事録と、ボードメンバーのスピーチが相次いだ。年内の利下げはほぼないことが確認された形となったことも下落に関係しているだろう。Last week also saw the release of the FOMC minutes and a series of speeches by board members. The confirmation that there would be almost no rate cuts within the year likely contributed to the decline.

NY株は景気後退のシグナルを無視した、利下げ期待と、AIのみを拠り所にした上昇となっているが、何時までも続くわけはない。しかし、本格的な暴落までは上昇が継続すると考えられ、上昇には当面ついていく方が有利だろう。このため、市場には半身で参加する必要がある。今週木曜日に向けて、ポジションは１／５とし、上昇すれば収益となり、年初来高値の１６５０近辺で一旦利益確定する。NY stocks are rising, driven by interest rate cuts expectations and reliance on AI while ignoring signals of an economic downturn. However, this upward trend cannot continue indefinitely. Nonetheless, it is believed that the upward trend will persist until a significant crash occurs, so it may be advantageous to follow along with the rise for the time being. Therefore, it is necessary to participate cautiously in the market. Towards this Thursday, positions should be at 1/5, and if the market rises, profits will be made, and profits should be realized around the year-to-date high of around 1650 yen.

下落した場合のシナリオとしては、今後金利は上昇過程にあるシナリオは崩れていないと思われるため、１３００円台に向かって下落した場合、追加で更に１／５のポジションを追加する。さらに１１００円台に向かって下落した場合、更に１／５と買い下がっていく。As for scenarios in case of a decline, since the scenario where interest rates are in the process of rising has not collapsed, if the market falls towards the 1300 yen range, an additional 1/5 position should be added. Furthermore, if it falls towards the 1100 yen range, further buying should be done at 1/5 increments.

決算は自社株買いで明暗。自社株買いの大きいSMBCは上昇、少ないMUFGは下落した。Earnings reports highlighted a contrast in stock performance based on share buybacks. SMBC, with significant share buybacks, saw its stock rise, while MUFG, with fewer buybacks, experienced a decline.

新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足、週足、月足とも上昇。The new daily highs are falling. AI predictions indicate an upward trend on weekly, and monthly charts but falling for daily.

中国株は年初から再上昇を始めているが、不動産問題が更に火を噴く可能性が高く、一時的な戻りと考えられる。Chinese stocks have been rebounding since the beginning of the year, but there is a high possibility of further escalation of the real estate issue, suggesting a temporary rebound.

半導体は急落後、自律反発。Semiconductor stocks have experienced a self-correcting rebound after a sharp decline.

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は　２／５。長期枠利用は０／５。Trading details are as follows: 1/5 trading limit utilization for short-term trades and 0/5 for long-term holdings.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

決算は山場を越えた。日経平均EPSに大きな変化はなかった。The earnings season has peaked. There was no significant change in the Nikkei 225's EPS.

US＄は未だ100bpの逆イールド状態。日本円は100bpの順イールド。The US dollar is still in a 100bp reverse yield curve, while the Japanese yen has a 100bp forward yield curve.

米金利は年内利下げ可能性の低下に伴い上昇したが、ハイテクの好調な決算の安心感からか上昇。日本の金利は急激な円安から日銀が利上げするのではとの思惑から上昇したが、結果現状維持だったので、反落した。U.S. interest rates rose as the likelihood of a rate cut this year diminished. However, buoyed by strong earnings reports from the tech sector, stocks climbed. In Japan, interest rates initially rose due to speculation that the Bank of Japan might raise rates in response to rapid yen depreciation. However, when the BOJ decided to maintain its current policy, rates fell back down.

外国人投資家は３週連続の現物株買い越し。Foreign investors have been net buyers of physical stocks for three consecutive weeks.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

米逆イールドは健在。The US reverse yield curve remains intact.

ドル円は神田財務官により介入が入り急落。原資は１億ドルあるので、160円は防衛可能化もしれない。外貨準備が尽きたところで、金利を上げれば良いわけだ。The USD/JPY experienced a sharp decline due to intervention by Finance Minister Kanda. With reserves of $100 million, it may be possible to defend the 160 yen level. If foreign reserves are depleted, raising interest rates could be an option.

米金利、円金利は上昇。US and Japanese interest rates have risen.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

三菱商事は減益予想で下落。Mitsubishi Corporation is experiencing a decline due to forecasted lower profits.

長谷工は下落トレンドから一時離脱したが、また戻りそうだ。Haseko momentarily departed from its downtrend but seems to be returning.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

ウクライナ支援の米議会承認はようやく成立した。武器は前線に届きつつあり、劣勢を回復しつつあるようだ。The approval from the US Congress for aid to Ukraine has finally been achieved. Weapons are beginning to reach the front lines, and it seems that the Ukrainian forces are gradually regaining their footing.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

今回の下落がどこまで掘るか。昨年のケースだと、全治３か月。How far this downturn will go remains uncertain. Based on last year's case, the recovery period could be around three months.

３か月でも戻るか、米株の全面崩壊で全治５年になるか。米株がハードランディングする理由はいくつもある。コロナ給付預金の枯渇、失業率の立ち上がり、不動産崩壊開始、地銀連続破綻と政府支援の限界、中国経済破綻で世界GDPの激減、もしトラ不安などなど。なにせ、米国のコロナ支援はGDPの２５％だったことが重要。この異常な刺激策の副作用はリーマンショック後の中銀BS拡大に加えて未知の世界。It could rebound within three months, or if there's a complete collapse of the US stock market, it could take five years for recovery. There are several reasons why the US stock market could experience a hard landing, such as the depletion of coronavirus relief funds, rising unemployment rates, the beginning of a real estate collapse, consecutive failures of regional banks reaching the limits of government support, a sharp decline in global GDP due to the collapse of the Chinese economy, and geopolitical tensions. After all, the fact that US coronavirus relief amounted to 25% of GDP is significant. The side effects of this abnormal stimulus package, added to the expansion of central bank balance sheets after the Lehman shock, lead to an unknown territory.

ハードランディングを防ぐためにパウエルが逆イールド解消まで利下げすると、皮肉にも、ハードランディング開始の狼煙となる。ハードランディングのもう一つのトリガーである失業率が実質上昇傾向にあるが、しかしこのタイミングで利下げすると、インフレを２％以下にできないジレンマ。Ironically, if Powell lowers interest rates until the yield curve inversion is resolved to prevent a hard landing, it may ironically signal the beginning of the hard landing. Another trigger for a hard landing is the upward trend in the unemployment rate, but lowering interest rates at this point creates a dilemma of not being able to keep inflation below 2%.

３月９月は外人売りが出やすいアノマリーも。March and September tend to see anomalies where foreign selling is more likely.

一方、ＡＩハイテクの物語は、未だ、最終消費者までのサイクルが完成しておらず、まだ物語ベースでの買いが続いていた。NVIDIAも、データセンター向けのサイクルだけでは成長に限界があるのを自ら示している。On the other hand, the AI high-tech narrative hasn't fully completed its cycle to reach the end consumer, and buying based on the narrative continues. NVIDIA, for example, has shown that growth is limited solely to the data center cycle.

植田は基本、国民生活より供給者側を支援するアベノミクス側の人。通貨の番人など、とっくに返上している。いくら緩和してもインフレにならなかった日本をインフレにしてくれた円安を、やすやすと手放すことは無いかも。株価の本格崩壊が始まったら、異次元緩和の延長もあるか。もしくは、解除後もカーブ実質介入しまくり等々。Mr. Ueda fundamentally supports the supply side of Abenomics rather than the livelihoods of the citizens. He has long since given up the role of currency guardian, among others. It's possible that he won't easily give up the yen depreciation that brought inflation to Japan, which had failed to materialize no matter how much easing was done. If a full-scale collapse in stock prices begins, there may be an extension of unconventional easing measures. Alternatively, there could be continued substantial intervention in the yield curve even after the tapering.

色々考えると、不確定要素満載で、次のトレンドが現れるまで一旦手じまいという人も多いだろう。With so many uncertainties, many people might choose to sit on the sidelines until the next trend emerges.