AI 株価予測 20240502の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20240502　

今週は先週の日銀ゼロ回答を受けて銀行株は大幅下落するかと思いきや、連休の３営業日の初日、急騰した。ところが、その後、米株の下落もあって初日の急騰は全て戻る形となった。This week, following the Bank of Japan's non-response last week, bank stocks were expected to drop significantly. However, on the first day of the three business days during the holiday, they surged unexpectedly. However, later on, due to the decline in US stocks, the initial surge was completely reversed.

米株の戻り天井後の下落はFOMCとパウエルの発言、雇用統計により逆転した。FOMCではQTの減速が示され、実質利下げ方向の変更であった。また、雇用統計は予想を下回る雇用増加及び失業率の微増が示され、これは景気の下落を示し、FOMCでの決定を裏付けた。明日からの日本株は上昇して始まりそうだ。The decline after the rebound peak of US stocks was reversed due to statements from the FOMC and Powell, as well as employment statistics. The FOMC indicated a slowdown in quantitative tightening (QT), which essentially meant a shift towards interest rate cuts. Additionally, employment statistics showed lower-than-expected job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating an economic downturn and supporting the decision at the FOMC meeting. It seems that Japanese stocks will start rising from tomorrow.

ただ、利上げによる景気の悪化は、歴史的にみて利下げにより決定的になり、利下げまで上昇し続けた株は、利下げを機に暴落する。このため、今回の再上昇は短命になりそうだ。下落の兆候をよく監視しながら上昇についていく必要がある。However, historically, economic downturns caused by interest rate hikes have decisively led to rate cuts, and stocks that continued to rise until the rate cut plummeted upon the rate cut. Therefore, this current rebound seems likely to be short-lived. It's necessary to closely monitor signs of decline while following the upward trend.

果たして、今週の米株の決算は非常に良かった。来週もAmazon、AMD、Appleなどの決算がある。その結果、米株の下落は止まりそうではある。Indeed, the earnings reports for US stocks this week were very positive. With upcoming earnings from companies like Amazon, AMD, and Apple next week, it seems likely that the decline in US stocks will come to a halt.

メガバンクは連休の狭間の初日、一斉に仕掛けられて急騰、その後下落した。On the first day sandwiched between the holidays, mega-banks surged simultaneously and then declined afterward.

新値日足は変わらず。AI予測は日足は下落、週足、月足は上昇。New daily candlesticks remain unchanged. AI predictions indicate a decline in daily candlesticks but an increase in weekly and monthly candlesticks.

中国株は年初から再上昇を始めているが、不動産問題が更に火を噴く可能性が高く、一時的な戻りと考えられる。Chinese stocks have been rebounding since the beginning of the year, but there is a high possibility of further escalation of the real estate issue, suggesting a temporary rebound.

半導体は急落後、自律反発。

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は　０／５。長期枠利用は０／５。Trading details are as follows: ０/5 trading limit utilization for short-term trades and 0/5 for long-term holdings.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

日銀の金利決定会合は結果現状維持だった。日銀は急激な円安を利上げにより防衛するつもりは全く無いことを表明した。

日本も決算発表が順次始まるがピークは５月中旬。EPSが増えるかに注目。In Japan Q4 result announcements are going to start gradually and will peak around mid May. Need to focus on EPS advancement.

US＄は未だ100bpの逆イールド状態。日本円は100bpの順イールド。The US dollar is still in a 100bp reverse yield curve, while the Japanese yen has a 100bp forward yield curve.

米金利は年内利下げ可能性の低下に伴い上昇したが、ハイテクの好調な決算の安心感からか上昇。日本の金利は急激な円安から日銀が利上げするのではとの思惑から上昇したが、結果現状維持だったので、反落した。

外国人投資家の現物売りが５０００億円、先物売りが５０００億円で、外国人売りが合計１兆円。個人投資家買いが１兆円。悪い構図になってきている感じはある。年金リバランス売りは本当に終了したようだ。

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

米逆イールドは健在。The US reverse yield curve remains intact.

ドル円はパウエルの利上げ長期化をネタに再び円安。しかし、１５２円以上は財務省の介入が入る。The USD/JPY pair depreciated again on the news of Powell's prolonged interest rate hike. However, if it surpasses 152 yen, intervention by the Ministry of Finance is expected.

米金利、円金利は上昇。US and Japanese interest rates have risen.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

三菱商事は小動き。Mitsubishi Corporation is relatively stable.

長谷工は下落トレンドから一時離脱したが、また戻りそうだ。Haseko momentarily departed from its downtrend but seems to be returning.

ウクライナは兵器不足で劣勢に回っている。ウクライナへの兵器支援は遅々として進んでいない。Ukraine is at a disadvantage due to a shortage of weapons. Assistance to Ukraine with weapons is still lagging.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

今回の下落がどこまで掘るか。昨年のケースだと、全治３か月。How far this downturn will go remains uncertain. Based on last year's case, the recovery period could be around three months.

３か月でも戻るか、米株の全面崩壊で全治５年になるか。米株がハードランディングする理由はいくつもある。コロナ給付預金の枯渇、失業率の立ち上がり、不動産崩壊開始、地銀連続破綻と政府支援の限界、中国経済破綻で世界GDPの激減、もしトラ不安などなど。なにせ、米国のコロナ支援はGDPの２５％だったことが重要。この異常な刺激策の副作用はリーマンショック後の中銀BS拡大に加えて未知の世界。It could rebound within three months, or if there's a complete collapse of the US stock market, it could take five years for recovery. There are several reasons why the US stock market could experience a hard landing, such as the depletion of coronavirus relief funds, rising unemployment rates, the beginning of a real estate collapse, consecutive failures of regional banks reaching the limits of government support, a sharp decline in global GDP due to the collapse of the Chinese economy, and geopolitical tensions. After all, the fact that US coronavirus relief amounted to 25% of GDP is significant. The side effects of this abnormal stimulus package, added to the expansion of central bank balance sheets after the Lehman shock, lead to an unknown territory.

ハードランディングを防ぐためにパウエルが逆イールド解消まで利下げすると、皮肉にも、ハードランディング開始の狼煙となる。ハードランディングのもう一つのトリガーである失業率が実質上昇傾向にあるが、しかしこのタイミングで利下げすると、インフレを２％以下にできないジレンマ。Ironically, if Powell lowers interest rates until the yield curve inversion is resolved to prevent a hard landing, it may ironically signal the beginning of the hard landing. Another trigger for a hard landing is the upward trend in the unemployment rate, but lowering interest rates at this point creates a dilemma of not being able to keep inflation below 2%.

３月９月は外人売りが出やすいアノマリーも。March and September tend to see anomalies where foreign selling is more likely.

一方、ＡＩハイテクの物語は、未だ、最終消費者までのサイクルが完成しておらず、まだ物語ベースでの買いが続いていた。NVIDIAも、データセンター向けのサイクルだけでは成長に限界があるのを自ら示している。On the other hand, the AI high-tech narrative hasn't fully completed its cycle to reach the end consumer, and buying based on the narrative continues. NVIDIA, for example, has shown that growth is limited solely to the data center cycle.

植田は基本、国民生活より供給者側を支援するアベノミクス側の人。通貨の番人など、とっくに返上している。いくら緩和してもインフレにならなかった日本をインフレにしてくれた円安を、やすやすと手放すことは無いかも。株価の本格崩壊が始まったら、異次元緩和の延長もあるか。もしくは、解除後もカーブ実質介入しまくり等々。Mr. Ueda fundamentally supports the supply side of Abenomics rather than the livelihoods of the citizens. He has long since given up the role of currency guardian, among others. It's possible that he won't easily give up the yen depreciation that brought inflation to Japan, which had failed to materialize no matter how much easing was done. If a full-scale collapse in stock prices begins, there may be an extension of unconventional easing measures. Alternatively, there could be continued substantial intervention in the yield curve even after the tapering.

色々考えると、不確定要素満載で、次のトレンドが現れるまで一旦手じまいという人も多いだろう。With so many uncertainties, many people might choose to sit on the sidelines until the next trend emerges.