AI 株価予測 20250411の状況
8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast -20250411

トランプ関税は更なる売りとなった。月曜日に一旦の底を打ち、９０日の猶予声明を受けて、中間反騰を開始した。現在の１／３の投資額は、ー１４％近く毀損しているが、ベースシナリオとしては、損益がー３０％近くになるのを待って、次の１／３を投入予定。Trump Tariffs Triggered Further Selling. After hitting a temporary bottom on Monday, the market began a technical rebound following the announcement of a 90-day grace period. Currently, one-third of the investment portfolio has been damaged by nearly -14%. Under the base scenario, the plan is to deploy the next third of the investment once losses approach -30%.

トランプ関税は米国国家財政の破綻を防ぐことができる数少ない手段の一つ。ただ、もたらされる景気後退の深刻度が不明確。来週からは中間反騰が継続するだろうが、どこまで戻るかはもちろんわからない。もし、ポジションを作るにしても、戻り高値で売却する。全く買わずにそのまま次の下落まで放置することもある。投資方針としては、１年かけて、順次投資していく方向。The Trump tariffs are one of the few measures that could potentially prevent a collapse of the U.S. national finances. However, the severity of the resulting economic recession remains uncertain. While the rebound is expected to continue from next week, the extent of the recovery is, of course, unknown. Even if new positions are to be taken, the plan is to sell into the rally. There may also be cases where no additional purchases are made, and the portfolio is left untouched until the next decline. The investment policy is to gradually invest over the course of a year.

土日にかけ、スマートフォン関連には課税しないなどと、トランプ関税は徐々にトーンダウンしてきた。トランプ流の最初に吹っ掛ける交渉流儀だった可能性も高く、今回の関税に絡む急落は急速に沈静化するかもしれない。Over the weekend, the Trump tariffs have been gradually toned down, such as the announcement that smartphones will not be subject to tariffs. It is highly likely that this was part of Trump's usual negotiation style—starting with an aggressive opening bid. The sharp drop related to the tariffs may settle down quickly.

ただ、景気後退は着実に近づいているようで、月曜日買ったとしても、撤退する時期を間違えると次の暴落に巻き込まれそう。That said, the recession does appear to be steadily approaching. Even if one were to buy on Monday, mistiming the exit could lead to getting caught in the next major crash.

ベッセント　＠Apr7,2025インタビューBessent – Interview on April 7, 2025

アメリカ人の上位10%が株式の88%を保有、次の40%が12%を所有しています。下位50%は負債を抱えています。クレジットカードの請求書があり、家を借り、自動車ローンも抱えています。彼らに何らかの救済措置を講じなければなりません。The top 10% of Americans own 88% of all equities. The next 40% own the remaining 12%. The bottom 50% are in debt. They carry credit card bills, rent their homes, and have auto loans. Some form of relief must be provided for them.

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大量の債務を発行し続けるのは、まるでボディビルダーがステロイドを摂取するようなものです。外見は素晴らしく筋肉質に見えますが、内面では重要な臓器を破壊しているのです。ここで起こっていたのはまさにそれです。経済を活性化させ、多額の借金をし、政府の雇用を大量に創出し続けるのは簡単だったでしょう。そうしている限り、議論の余地はありません。しかし、最終的には大惨事に陥る運命でした。Continuing to issue massive amounts of debt is like a bodybuilder taking steroids. On the outside, it looks great—muscular and strong. But inside, vital organs are being destroyed. That’s exactly what’s been happening here. Stimulating the economy, borrowing heavily, and continuously creating government jobs might have been easy. As long as that continued, there was no room for debate. But in the end, it was destined to become a disaster.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0073

現状、総投資限度の１／３程度の配当重視（配当３％平均）のポジション。MUFG、長谷工、三菱商事、村田製作所、トヨタ、金ＥＴＦ、他。Currently, dividend-focused positions (with an average dividend yield of 3%) account for about one-third of the total investment limit. Holdings include MUFG, Haseko, Mitsubishi Corporation, Murata Manufacturing, Toyota, a gold ETF, and others.

日銀金利決定会合では利上げなしが大方の予想。

IMMは円買いに転換。IMM switched back to JPY buy.

海外勢は買いに転換。Foreign investors started to buy.

新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

現状日銀は７００兆円近くの国債を買い入れており、これは国債発行残高の６割近く。このうち６兆円が毎月満期になるため、月額６兆円を買い入れている。このため、月額買入を３兆円に減額すると１年間に３６兆円のQTとなる。全保有額を放出するには２０年近くかかるため、それまでは廃止したと言いながら継続しているYCCが続くことになる。これが国債が売られた背景。 Currently, the Bank of Japan holds nearly 700 trillion yen in government bonds, which is close to 60% of the total government bond issuance. Of this amount, 6 trillion yen matures every month, leading the BOJ to purchase 6 trillion yen monthly. Therefore, reducing the monthly purchases to 3 trillion yen results in a QT of 36 trillion yen annually. It would take nearly 20 years to completely unwind their holdings, so despite announcing the end of yield curve control (YCC), it effectively continues. This is why government bonds are being sold off.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

長谷工は下落トレンドから復帰。Haseko showed exit from down-trend.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

トランプはウクライナ問題の早期解決をプーチンと話し合う予定。ヨーロッパとウクライナは蚊帳の外。最悪の展開が待っている模様。Trump is going to talk Putin on the early resolution of Ukraine problem. Neither Europe nor Ukraine were invited. Worst case scenario is now expected.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

米国株はサームルール発動により景気後退入りが確実となった。

今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.