AI 株価予測 20250425の状況
8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast -20250425

トランプは今週に入り、関税に関する要求レベルを一様に下げてきた。当初の恫喝じみた咆哮とは打って変わった低姿勢となった。株式市場の暴落のみならず、９兆ドルの借り換えを前にして、米国債が大量に売却され米国からのリスクオフが鮮明になってきたのをベンセントに諭された様子だ。Trump, entering this week, has uniformly lowered his demands regarding tariffs. His stance has shifted to a much more humble tone, a stark contrast from his initial, almost threatening roars. It seems that he was persuaded by Bensent, not only because of the stock market's crash but also due to the increasing risk-off sentiment towards the U.S., as a massive sell-off of U.S. Treasuries has begun ahead of $9 trillion in refinancing.

拡大を続ける米債務を削減するには、DOGEなどによる支出削減、関税による税収増加以外に現状策がない。超富裕層への累進課税強化は選挙前の減税公約に反するためできない。トランプは意気消沈して見え、当初の強気は消し飛んでいるが、それでも、今後、何を出してくるのかが懸念される。ただ、トランプがベンセントに従っている限り、今回の超絶関税のような大恐慌直結型の危機は来ない感じではある。To reduce the ever-expanding U.S. debt, there are currently no viable options other than cutting expenditures through measures like DOGE and increasing tax revenue through tariffs. Strengthening progressive taxation on the ultra-wealthy would conflict with his campaign promises of tax cuts and is therefore not feasible. Trump appears dispirited, his initial bravado having evaporated. Nevertheless, there are concerns about what he might attempt next. However, as long as Trump continues to follow Bensent's guidance, it seems unlikely that we will face a crisis directly leading to a Great Depression, like the extreme tariffs he initially proposed.

株式市場はすでに下落トレンドに入り、今後１年程度は底を更新する局面となりそうだ。４月７日の一番底を付けてからの上昇は金曜日にネックラインに到達。反落するにはちょうど良い局面になってしまったが、ここで追加でMUFGと相関性の高いSMFGをリミットの1/10ほど購入。理由は、トランプの勢いが弱まってきたため、ここで中間反騰が期待できそうなため。中間反騰が上場来高値まで達することはなく、途中で反転した局面で売却予定。The stock market has already entered a downward trend, and over the next year, it is likely to continue setting new lows. After hitting the first bottom on April 7, the market climbed to the neckline by Friday. This made it an ideal point for a pullback. In response, I purchased about 1/10 of the limit in SMFG, which has a high correlation with MUFG. The reason for this move is that Trump's momentum appears to be weakening, suggesting a potential for a short-term rebound. However, I do not expect this rebound to reach an all-time high; I plan to sell during the reversal phase before that point.

投資分についての損益はー８％まで回復だが、大局下落トレンドに入ってしまったため、プラス転換するのは１年後になる可能性大。残りの８カ月で大幅な下落となれば絶好の買い場となるので、積極的に組み入れていきたい。現状で大恐慌シナリオ（株価１／１０）もあり得ない話ではないが、可能性としては低いと考えている。あっても、リーマンショックレベル（株価２／３）を想定している。The profit and loss for the investment portion has recovered to -8%, but since we have entered a major downtrend, it is highly likely that it will take about a year to return to positive territory. If there is a significant drop within the next eight months, it would present an excellent buying opportunity, and I intend to actively add to the portfolio. Although a Great Depression scenario (stock prices falling to one-tenth) is not entirely out of the question, I consider it unlikely. If anything, I am anticipating something more akin to the Lehman Shock level (stock prices falling to two-thirds).

現状、総投資限度の１／２程度の配当重視（配当３％平均）のポジション。MUFG、SMFG、長谷工、三菱商事、村田製作所、トヨタ、金ＥＴＦ、他。Currently, dividend-focused positions (with an average dividend yield of 3%) account for about one-third of the total investment limit. Holdings include MUFG, SMFG, Haseko, Mitsubishi Corporation, Murata Manufacturing, Toyota, a gold ETF, and others.

日銀金利決定会合では利上げなしが大方の予想。

IMMは円買いに転換。IMM switched back to JPY buy.

海外勢は買いに転換。Foreign investors started to buy.

新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

現状日銀は７００兆円近くの国債を買い入れており、これは国債発行残高の６割近く。このうち６兆円が毎月満期になるため、月額６兆円を買い入れている。このため、月額買入を３兆円に減額すると１年間に３６兆円のQTとなる。全保有額を放出するには２０年近くかかるため、それまでは廃止したと言いながら継続しているYCCが続くことになる。これが国債が売られた背景。 Currently, the Bank of Japan holds nearly 700 trillion yen in government bonds, which is close to 60% of the total government bond issuance. Of this amount, 6 trillion yen matures every month, leading the BOJ to purchase 6 trillion yen monthly. Therefore, reducing the monthly purchases to 3 trillion yen results in a QT of 36 trillion yen annually. It would take nearly 20 years to completely unwind their holdings, so despite announcing the end of yield curve control (YCC), it effectively continues. This is why government bonds are being sold off.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

長谷工は下落トレンドから復帰。Haseko showed exit from down-trend.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

トランプはウクライナ問題の早期解決をプーチンと話し合う予定。ヨーロッパとウクライナは蚊帳の外。最悪の展開が待っている模様。Trump is going to talk Putin on the early resolution of Ukraine problem. Neither Europe nor Ukraine were invited. Worst case scenario is now expected.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

米国株はサームルール発動により景気後退入りが確実となった。

今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.