AI 株価予測 20250502の状況
8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast -20250502

４月の最終週もトランプ関税に一喜一憂する展開。JOLTSは低下、GDPはマイナス、雇用統計は横ばいの中、米株は上昇継続。悪いニュースに反応しないという点では上昇基調が感じられた。日経平均、MUFGも同様の流れ。The final week of April saw the market fluctuating in response to the Trump tariffs. While the JOLTS report declined, GDP turned negative, and employment figures remained flat, U.S. equities continued their upward trend. The fact that markets did not react to bad news suggested a sustained bullish sentiment. The Nikkei and MUFG followed a similar trajectory.

GDPについては、GDPNowの欠陥により資本取引としての金がGDPに混入したこと、また、トランプ関税前の駆け込み輸入あったこと、がGDPを押し下げた。このため実質的なGDPにはさほどダメージは無かったことがGDPマイナスを受けて株価が反応しなかった理由だろう。As for GDP, the decline can be attributed to two main factors: flaws in the GDPNow model that mistakenly included gold as a capital transaction within GDP, and a surge in preemptive imports ahead of the Trump tariffs. These factors artificially lowered GDP, which explains why the markets remained unfazed by the negative GDP reading—there was little actual damage to the underlying economy.

ただ、中国への１４０％を超える関税発動を受けて、今現在中国からのコンテナ輸入はキャンセルが相次ぎ、完全に停止。この影響はGDP＝C＋G＋I＋EX-IMのCの減少で現れてくると考えられる。中国以外のまだ大規模な関税がかけられていない国々からの駆け込み輸入増も継続するかもしれない。中国からの駆け込み輸入がなくなるためＧＤＰへは大きなプラス効果もあるため、これらがオフセットしてＧＤＰが次月からどうなるのかに注視したい。However, in response to the imposition of tariffs exceeding 140% on Chinese goods, container imports from China are currently being canceled en masse, effectively halting trade. This impact is expected to manifest as a decrease in the "C" component (consumption) of the GDP equation: GDP = C + G + I + EX - IM. There may still be a continuation of rush imports from countries not yet affected by major tariffs. Conversely, the disappearance of preemptive imports from China could also remove a negative drag, potentially offsetting the decline. Going forward, close attention should be paid to how these opposing factors influence GDP in the coming months.

現状、総投資限度の１／３程度の配当重視（配当３％平均）のポジション。MUFG、長谷工、三菱商事、村田製作所、トヨタ、金ＥＴＦ、他。Currently, dividend-focused positions (with an average dividend yield of 3%) account for about one-third of the total investment limit. Holdings include MUFG, Haseko, Mitsubishi Corporation, Murata Manufacturing, Toyota, a gold ETF, and others.

日銀金利決定会合では利上げなしが大方の予想。

IMMは円買いに転換。IMM switched back to JPY buy.

海外勢は買いに転換。Foreign investors started to buy.

新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

現状日銀は７００兆円近くの国債を買い入れており、これは国債発行残高の６割近く。このうち６兆円が毎月満期になるため、月額６兆円を買い入れている。このため、月額買入を３兆円に減額すると１年間に３６兆円のQTとなる。全保有額を放出するには２０年近くかかるため、それまでは廃止したと言いながら継続しているYCCが続くことになる。これが国債が売られた背景。 Currently, the Bank of Japan holds nearly 700 trillion yen in government bonds, which is close to 60% of the total government bond issuance. Of this amount, 6 trillion yen matures every month, leading the BOJ to purchase 6 trillion yen monthly. Therefore, reducing the monthly purchases to 3 trillion yen results in a QT of 36 trillion yen annually. It would take nearly 20 years to completely unwind their holdings, so despite announcing the end of yield curve control (YCC), it effectively continues. This is why government bonds are being sold off.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

長谷工は下落トレンドから復帰。Haseko showed exit from down-trend.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

トランプはウクライナ問題の早期解決をプーチンと話し合う予定。ヨーロッパとウクライナは蚊帳の外。最悪の展開が待っている模様。Trump is going to talk Putin on the early resolution of Ukraine problem. Neither Europe nor Ukraine were invited. Worst case scenario is now expected.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

米国株はサームルール発動により景気後退入りが確実となった。

今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.