AI 株価予測 20250516の状況
8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast -20250516

果たしてベッセントと中国との関税交渉は１４５％の関税を３０％とする結果となり、株は４月２日のトランプの言うリバレーションデイを超える水準に上昇した。MUFG他の銀行決算は事前予想通りの増益だった。MUFGは前期に2500億円の自社株買いを発表した。As a result of Bessent's tariff negotiations with China, the 145% tariff was reduced to 30%, and stocks rose to levels surpassing what Trump called "Liberation Day" on April 2. Earnings reports from MUFG and other banks showed increased profits, as expected. MUFG also announced a ¥250 billion share buyback in the previous fiscal year.

米株はしかし、当面の天井圏を形成するチャートとなっており、来週からかなりの調整が予想される。GSの日本株先物も巨大な売りポジションとなっている模様だ。However, U.S. stocks appear to be forming a short-term peak on the charts, and a significant correction is expected starting next week. It seems Goldman Sachs is holding a massive short position in Japanese stock futures as well.

今週は上昇を捉えて、数回のトレードを行い、週末にポジションをほぼ解消した。年初来損益は一時プラスとなったが、来週以降は多分かなりまたマイナスに落ち込む予測。ただ、今回は日経平均３５０００程度までで下落は止まると思われ、急落した局面では積極的に組み入れていく予定。This week, I took advantage of the market's rise to make several trades and closed out most of my positions by the weekend. My year-to-date performance briefly turned positive, but I expect it to fall significantly into negative territory again starting next week. That said, I believe the decline will likely bottom out around the 35,000 level on the Nikkei, and I plan to actively increase holdings during sharp drops.

今回トランプの「狂人戦略」で米中間関税は一時本当に１４５％となり、貿易は実際にストップし、このままでは本格的な大恐慌突入と思われた。しかし「狂人」はやはり「フリ」だけで、今回現実的な税率に大幅に下げてきた。このため、大恐慌となる確率はほぼなくなり、景気後退程度で済みそうだ。Trump’s so-called “madman strategy” had, at one point, actually raised U.S.-China tariffs to 145%, effectively halting trade, leading many to believe a full-scale depression was imminent. However, the “madman” act proved to be just that—an act—and this time, the tariffs were substantially reduced to more realistic levels. As a result, the likelihood of a major depression has virtually disappeared, and it seems we may escape with just a mild recession.

ただ、トランプの新規政策、戦争など、突発的な暴落に対応するため、今後組み入れても、追加１／３程度で、総組み入れは最大２／３程度。However, to prepare for sudden market crashes triggered by new Trump policies or potential wars, even if I do resume buying, I plan to limit additional investments to about one-third, with total exposure capped at a maximum of two-thirds.

現状、総投資限度の１／３程度の配当重視（配当３％平均）のポジション。MUFG、SMFG

、長谷工、三菱商事、村田製作所、トヨタ、金ＥＴＦ、他。Currently, dividend-focused positions (with an average dividend yield of 3%) account for about one-third of the total investment limit. Holdings include MUFG, SMFG, Haseko, Mitsubishi Corporation, Murata Manufacturing, Toyota, a gold ETF, and others.

日銀金利決定会合では利上げなしが大方の予想。

IMMは円買いに転換。IMM switched back to JPY buy.

海外勢は買いに転換。Foreign investors started to buy.

新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

現状日銀は７００兆円近くの国債を買い入れており、これは国債発行残高の６割近く。このうち６兆円が毎月満期になるため、月額６兆円を買い入れている。このため、月額買入を３兆円に減額すると１年間に３６兆円のQTとなる。全保有額を放出するには２０年近くかかるため、それまでは廃止したと言いながら継続しているYCCが続くことになる。これが国債が売られた背景。 Currently, the Bank of Japan holds nearly 700 trillion yen in government bonds, which is close to 60% of the total government bond issuance. Of this amount, 6 trillion yen matures every month, leading the BOJ to purchase 6 trillion yen monthly. Therefore, reducing the monthly purchases to 3 trillion yen results in a QT of 36 trillion yen annually. It would take nearly 20 years to completely unwind their holdings, so despite announcing the end of yield curve control (YCC), it effectively continues. This is why government bonds are being sold off.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

長谷工は下落トレンドから復帰。Haseko showed exit from down-trend.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

トランプはウクライナ問題の早期解決をプーチンと話し合う予定。ヨーロッパとウクライナは蚊帳の外。最悪の展開が待っている模様。Trump is going to talk Putin on the early resolution of Ukraine problem. Neither Europe nor Ukraine were invited. Worst case scenario is now expected.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

米国株はサームルール発動により景気後退入りが確実となった。

今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.