AI 株価予測 20200508 の状況8306MUFG
Stock Price AI Forecast - 20200508 Status 8306MUFG
注）この投稿はあくまで個人メモです。記事に基づく実際の投資は一切行わないでください。
Caution) This is only for my memo. Never make any actual investment based on this post.
持ち合い相場は継続し、新値の更新はなく、よって、AI予測に変化はない。There is no change on AI forecast since there is no change on three line break itself due to continuing range trading.
ミクロには三角持ち合いだったのが、上抜けしたが方向は定まらない。Micro movement was triangular coil convergence that was upward broken however, now it is already disoriented.
米国市場の戻り基調は緩やかとなりいつ下落してもおかしくないWトップのチャート形状となっている。しかし、今週出た非常に悪い失業率は織り込み済みで株価は反応しなかった。現状で、大量倒産、大量失業、経済再開後の第二波、中国との関係悪化、原油下落など、目先の悪材料は出尽くしの感がある。The rebound of US market became slower and now in W shape top ready to go down anytime. However, market did not react to bad unemployment rate statistics released this week since it was already anticipated. At this point, market is exhausted for bad news such as massive bankruptcy, huge unemployment, 2nd infection wave, China conflict and Oil market crush.
その一方、GDP10%相当の経済対策が各国で始まっている。また、治療薬なども配備間近となっている。致死率をインフルエンザ程度に抑えることが、経済再開の条件となり、その日も近いと考えられる。Meanwhile, GDP10% scale of economic aids have started in many countries. Remedial medicine looks close to be deployed soon also. The condition of reopening of economy is the reduction of mortality rate down to influenza equivalent, and the day may come soon.
NASDAQはNYダウより戻りが早く、すでにコロナ前、昨年１２月のレベルである。NASDAQ rebound is faster than NYDow and is already at last Dec level that is before Corona infection started in US.
コロナと闘う中、その正体と被害の規模、経済復活への道筋は見え始めており、株価はそれを先行して表しているのだろう。While fighting with Corona, we learned what Corona is, the expected damage, and the path to the economic recovery, thus stock market price may be serving as leading indicator.
ただ、大規模な減益、倒産、失業などの経済の大混乱を引き起こした都市封鎖からの回復が株価が示すように急速なものであるかは、にわかには信じがたいものがある。表面的には民間消費減＝政府支出増であれば成長率への影響はなくなるが。However, it is not easy to believe that the recovery is so quick as stock price indicates, after lock down that created massive profit reduction, bankruptcy as well as unemployment. Nevertheless, superficially speaking, if consumer consumption reduction = government spending increase, then there will be no impact on GNP growth.
株価の戻りは一服し今後２番底をつけに行く可能性もあるが、今月の事態の進展次第で、戻りが再開する可能性が高い。具体的には５月中に期待できる、日本ではアビガン、米国ではクロロキンの承認および普及による死者の激減と、経済の再開だろう。既に承認された治療薬レムデシビルについては、重症者への効果の事例が出てくることが期待される。Going forward there is a chance to see the stumbling of stock price rebound to seek for 2nd bottom however, I believe there is more chance to keep rebounding depending on the progress during this month. More concretely, I presume approval of Avigan in Japan as well as Hydroxychloroquine in US, followed by major reduction of mortality rate and reopening of economy, that are expected to happen during May. For Remdesivir, people expect to see recovery stories of Corona patients in serious condition.
経済が再開してくれば、中国との関係悪化、原油下落などは自然と解消していくだろう。また、第二波については治療薬の普及により十分対応可能で、再度経済封鎖などになる可能性は低いと思う。今回のコロナは高齢者の致死率が高く恐ろしいが、人口全体としては、無症状感染者も含めた致死率はさほど高くない。Once economy comes back, relation with China as well as oil market crush will be resolved. The 2nd wave of infection will be well taken care of by cure medicines hence I believe there is low chance of lock down going forward. Immediate Corona's mortality rate for elderly is scary high but no really high for whole population including asymptomatic patients.
今後、コロナ並みの強力な感染力と、エボラ並みの高い致死率を持つ疫病が出現する可能性も残されている。ウイルスのさらなる研究の進展が人類生き残りに不可欠だ。Going forward, there is a chance that we encounter epidemic with high speed infection as Corona while having high mortality as Ebola. Further study on virus is essential for survival of human kind.
ミクロには三角持ち合いだったのが、上抜けしたが方向は定まらない。Micro movement was triangular coil convergence that was upward broken however, now it is already disoriented.
米国市場の戻り基調は緩やかとなりいつ下落してもおかしくないWトップのチャート形状となっている。しかし、今週出た非常に悪い失業率は織り込み済みで株価は反応しなかった。現状で、大量倒産、大量失業、経済再開後の第二波、中国との関係悪化、原油下落など、目先の悪材料は出尽くしの感がある。The rebound of US market became slower and now in W shape top ready to go down anytime. However, market did not react to bad unemployment rate statistics released this week since it was already anticipated. At this point, market is exhausted for bad news such as massive bankruptcy, huge unemployment, 2nd infection wave, China conflict and Oil market crush.
その一方、GDP10%相当の経済対策が各国で始まっている。また、治療薬なども配備間近となっている。致死率をインフルエンザ程度に抑えることが、経済再開の条件となり、その日も近いと考えられる。Meanwhile, GDP10% scale of economic aids have started in many countries. Remedial medicine looks close to be deployed soon also. The condition of reopening of economy is the reduction of mortality rate down to influenza equivalent, and the day may come soon.
NASDAQはNYダウより戻りが早く、すでにコロナ前、昨年１２月のレベルである。NASDAQ rebound is faster than NYDow and is already at last Dec level that is before Corona infection started in US.
コロナと闘う中、その正体と被害の規模、経済復活への道筋は見え始めており、株価はそれを先行して表しているのだろう。While fighting with Corona, we learned what Corona is, the expected damage, and the path to the economic recovery, thus stock market price may be serving as leading indicator.
ただ、大規模な減益、倒産、失業などの経済の大混乱を引き起こした都市封鎖からの回復が株価が示すように急速なものであるかは、にわかには信じがたいものがある。表面的には民間消費減＝政府支出増であれば成長率への影響はなくなるが。However, it is not easy to believe that the recovery is so quick as stock price indicates, after lock down that created massive profit reduction, bankruptcy as well as unemployment. Nevertheless, superficially speaking, if consumer consumption reduction = government spending increase, then there will be no impact on GNP growth.
株価の戻りは一服し今後２番底をつけに行く可能性もあるが、今月の事態の進展次第で、戻りが再開する可能性が高い。具体的には５月中に期待できる、日本ではアビガン、米国ではクロロキンの承認および普及による死者の激減と、経済の再開だろう。既に承認された治療薬レムデシビルについては、重症者への効果の事例が出てくることが期待される。Going forward there is a chance to see the stumbling of stock price rebound to seek for 2nd bottom however, I believe there is more chance to keep rebounding depending on the progress during this month. More concretely, I presume approval of Avigan in Japan as well as Hydroxychloroquine in US, followed by major reduction of mortality rate and reopening of economy, that are expected to happen during May. For Remdesivir, people expect to see recovery stories of Corona patients in serious condition.
経済が再開してくれば、中国との関係悪化、原油下落などは自然と解消していくだろう。また、第二波については治療薬の普及により十分対応可能で、再度経済封鎖などになる可能性は低いと思う。今回のコロナは高齢者の致死率が高く恐ろしいが、人口全体としては、無症状感染者も含めた致死率はさほど高くない。Once economy comes back, relation with China as well as oil market crush will be resolved. The 2nd wave of infection will be well taken care of by cure medicines hence I believe there is low chance of lock down going forward. Immediate Corona's mortality rate for elderly is scary high but no really high for whole population including asymptomatic patients.
今後、コロナ並みの強力な感染力と、エボラ並みの高い致死率を持つ疫病が出現する可能性も残されている。ウイルスのさらなる研究の進展が人類生き残りに不可欠だ。Going forward, there is a chance that we encounter epidemic with high speed infection as Corona while having high mortality as Ebola. Further study on virus is essential for survival of human kind.