AI 株価予測 20220128の状況8306MUFG
Stock Price AI Forecast - 20220128　Status 8306MUFG

FOMCのQT続行の発表を受けて、世界の株価指標は暴落。一方、MUFGの株価は中期上昇トレンドの下方抵抗線で反発した。銀行株は金利上昇の恩恵を受ける。Facing FOMC announcement of continuation of QT, world stock indices crushed. Meanwhile MUFG rebounded at the lower resistance of midterm upward trend range. Banks will get benefit out of interest rate hike.

MUFGの超ザックリしたMUFGのドル金利収益感度。ドル貸出40兆円相当、ドル債券20兆円相当で長期債権は合計60兆円相当。平均満期5年として、米国債5年金利－3カ月金利が１％増加すると、ざっくり6千億円の収益増大要因となる。Very rough estimate of MUFG's sensitivity on earnings against interest rate will be like following. Dollar lending is approximately JPY40tr equivalent while dollar securities amount are JPY20tr equivalent, as a total, long term assets are JPY60tr equivalent. Assuming average maturity is around 5yr, if spread between UST5yr against 3M lending rate increases 1%, earnings will increase JPY600bn.

紆余曲折はあるだろうが、FEDが９兆ドルの資産の売却を完了するまで金利上昇圧力は続き、銀行株への追い風となるだろう。It will be a winding road but FED's QT to trim $9tr assets will keep being an interest rate hike pressure, eventually contribute to the advance of bank stocks.

AI新値予測は続伸。AI forecast on 3LB is advance.

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